Eduardo Ponce — OGILVIE

Eduardo PonceC ACL Mariners

Age 19 R/R 5'9" / 172 lbs ROK HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 164 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .281 / .300

PA164

HR2

K%24

BB%8

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$8M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$8M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.6	$7M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.5	$6M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+1.3	$5M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+1.1	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$37M	+$32M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	174	148	27	6	2	3	19	34	5	3	0	182	297	311	607	128	212	20	11	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	174	140	32	7	2	4	27	24	5	3	0	229	372	393	765	164	246	14	16	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	194	172	32	2	1	3	17	42	3	1	0	186	271	262	532	76	225	22	9	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	194	162	35	3	1	3	27	29	3	1	0	216	339	302	641	86	242	15	14	299	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	SEA	—	164	148	30	5	1	2	13	39	2	2	1	203	276	291	567	88	269	24	8	267	63	-7	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	SEA	34%	245	220	48	8	2	4	20	58	3	3	1	218	292	327	619	109	273	24	8	279	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2028	21	MLB	SEA	48%	368	329	74	13	3	7	31	85	5	5	1	225	301	347	648	122	275	23	8	286	77	-10	+1	+0	+7	+10	0.8
2029	22	MLB	SEA	54%	455	408	92	16	3	9	38	105	6	6	2	225	301	346	646	120	277	23	8	291	81	-10	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.2
2030	23	MLB	SEA	57%	513	458	104	18	4	10	43	117	7	7	2	227	303	349	652	122	278	23	8	294	83	-10	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.5
2031	24	MLB	SEA	57%	520	464	106	18	4	11	44	118	7	7	2	228	305	356	660	127	279	23	8	295	84	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2032	25	MLB	SEA	57%	520	464	106	18	4	11	44	118	7	7	2	228	305	356	660	127	279	23	8	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2033	26	MLB	SEA	60%	520	464	106	18	4	11	44	118	7	7	2	228	305	356	660	127	279	23	8	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2034	27	MLB	SEA	62%	520	463	106	18	4	11	45	118	7	7	2	229	307	356	663	127	279	23	9	296	85	-9	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.6
2035	28	MLB	SEA	63%	520	463	105	18	3	11	45	119	7	7	2	227	305	350	655	123	278	23	9	295	84	-9	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.5
2036	29	MLB	SEA	64%	520	462	104	18	3	11	46	120	7	7	2	225	305	348	653	123	277	23	9	293	83	-10	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2037	30	MLB	SEA	65%	520	462	103	18	3	10	46	121	7	6	2	223	303	340	643	117	276	23	9	290	80	-11	+0	-2	+9	+15	1.1
2038	31	MLB	SEA	65%	504	448	99	17	3	10	44	119	7	6	2	221	301	339	640	118	274	24	9	286	77	-13	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.8
2039	32	MLB	SEA	65%	489	437	94	16	3	9	43	118	6	5	2	215	294	327	621	112	270	24	9	281	73	-15	+0	-4	+9	+14	0.5
2040	33	MLB	SEA	65%	458	409	86	14	3	8	40	112	6	5	2	210	290	318	608	108	267	24	9	274	68	-17	+0	-4	+8	+13	0.1
2041	34	MLB	SEA	60%	401	358	72	11	2	6	35	101	5	4	1	201	281	293	575	92	261	25	9	266	62	-17	+0	-5	+7	+11	-0.3
2027	20	MLB	SEA	34%	84	76	17	3	1	1	7	20	1	1	0	224	298	329	627	105	271	24	8	267	63	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	21	MLB	SEA	48%	178	159	35	6	1	3	15	41	2	2	1	220	295	327	622	107	273	23	8	274	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2029	22	MLB	SEA	54%	247	221	49	8	2	5	21	57	3	3	1	222	298	344	642	122	275	23	9	279	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.4
2030	23	MLB	SEA	57%	290	260	58	10	2	6	24	66	4	4	1	223	299	346	645	123	276	23	8	281	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2031	24	MLB	SEA	57%	294	263	59	10	2	6	25	67	4	4	1	224	301	346	647	122	277	23	9	283	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2032	25	MLB	SEA	57%	294	263	59	10	2	6	25	67	4	4	1	224	301	346	647	122	277	23	9	284	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2033	26	MLB	SEA	60%	314	280	63	11	2	6	27	71	4	4	1	225	302	343	645	118	276	23	9	284	75	-9	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.6
2034	27	MLB	SEA	62%	323	288	65	11	2	7	28	73	4	4	1	226	303	351	654	125	276	23	9	284	75	-9	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.6
2035	28	MLB	SEA	63%	329	293	66	11	2	7	29	75	4	4	1	225	304	348	652	123	276	23	9	283	75	-9	+0	-0	+6	+9	0.6
2036	29	MLB	SEA	64%	332	296	66	11	2	7	29	77	4	4	1	223	301	345	646	122	275	23	9	281	73	-10	+0	-1	+6	+9	0.5
2037	30	MLB	SEA	65%	338	301	66	11	2	6	30	79	4	4	1	219	299	329	627	110	274	23	9	278	71	-11	+0	-1	+6	+10	0.4
2038	31	MLB	SEA	65%	328	292	64	11	2	6	29	78	4	4	1	219	298	332	631	113	271	24	9	274	68	-12	+0	-2	+6	+9	0.2
2039	32	MLB	SEA	65%	318	283	61	10	2	6	28	76	4	4	1	216	295	329	624	113	268	24	9	269	64	-13	+0	-2	+6	+9	-0.0
2040	33	MLB	SEA	65%	298	266	56	9	2	5	26	73	4	3	1	211	291	316	606	105	264	24	9	263	59	-14	+0	-3	+5	+8	-0.2
2041	34	MLB	SEA	60%	243	217	44	7	1	4	21	61	3	2	1	203	282	300	582	97	259	25	9	255	53	-13	+0	-3	+4	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4210	3758	828	139	27	81	364	981	53	51	14	220	298	336	635	116	275	23	9	277	70	-143	+5	-13	+75	+119	4.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	128	21	4	13	56	151	8	8	2	221	298	338	636	117	274	23	9	277	70	-22	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	7605	6777	1494	252	52	147	657	1762	104	95	28	220	299	338	637	118	274	23	9	287	78	-193	+8	-20	+136	+215	14.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	128	22	4	13	56	151	9	8	2	221	300	340	640	119	274	23	9	287	78	-17	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	174	140	32	7	2	4	27	24	5	3	0	229	372	393	765	164	246	14	16	346	123	+5	+1	—	—	+5	1.0
2025	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	194	162	35	3	1	3	27	29	3	1	0	216	339	302	641	86	242	15	14	299	87	-3	+0	—	—	+5	0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	4,372	84	54	222	296	339	+78	+40	9.6	8.0
	/162	664	13	8	222	296	339	+11.9	+6.1	1.5	pk7: 6
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Eduardo Ponce (OGILVIE)	19	35	25	40	50	208/281/300	92	269	2	2	24%	8%	63	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alexander Campos 2018 · A	18	46	37→40	39→45	51	214/291/283	68	279	4	8	23%	9%	62	-0.9	195/266/265	70	306	4	9	34%	8%	46	-2.0	215/312/294	79	295	8	4	27%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Victor Moscote 2013 · A	19	41	40→30	41→45	41	200/260/288	88	281	8	4	31%	6%	50	-1.8	204/254/265	61	283	3	5	27%	5%	40	-2.4	209/266/252	43	268	2	3	21%	6%	40	-0.8
✕Alixon Suarez 2013 · A	19	41	39→45	42→40	49	197/283/282	85	252	6	3	23%	8%	59	-1.1	198/259/275	77	269	4	5	26%	6%	46	-2.0	148/180/183	35	205	0	2	27%	3%	-14	-1.2
✕Erick Brito 2021 · A	19	47→43	37→30	42→55	50	219/302/296	78	288	4	7	24%	9%	71	-0.3	217/290/274	57	287	2	18	23%	8%	59	-1.1	214/271/281	67	280	3	23	23%	6%	49	-0.8
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A	18	41	38→30	49→50	44	197/261/279	83	254	5	7	24%	6%	49	-1.8	211/290/283	72	267	5	9	21%	9%	62	-0.9	219/316/271	52	272	4	10	19%	11%	68	-0.2
✕Raul Juarez 2017 · A	19	42	41→45	42→40	41	208/273/305	97	268	9	6	25%	5%	61	-1.0	204/257/279	75	279	6	5	28%	5%	46	-2.0	180/221/220	41	250	4	2	29%	3%	13	-0.9
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Juan Mora 2019 · A	19	45	38→45	46→55	49	211/291/293	83	275	4	8	23%	9%	65	-0.7	213/293/327	114	268	10	14	23%	8%	75	-0.0	214/280/327	113	274	11	12	25%	6%	67	-0.2
✕Jose Ovalles 2013 · A	19	40	42→45	45→40	47	199/278/308	110	248	9	5	23%	7%	64	-0.8	215/277/321	106	257	9	5	19%	6%	66	-0.6	219/276/329	110	242	9	3	14%	6%	66	-0.2
✕Manuel Joseph 2013 · A	19	46	41→45	44→50	45	221/274/319	97	271	8	8	21%	6%	63	-0.8	244/300/352	108	288	9	15	18%	6%	83	+0.6	263/321/381	118	302	10	21	15%	5%	101	+0.8
✕Oswaldo Linares 2022 · A	19	42	36→40	47→40	54	195/298/259	64	275	4	8	28%	12%	60	-1.0	196/296/284	88	277	8	5	29%	11%	66	-0.6	173/283/253	79	246	9	2	30%	12%	51	-0.6
✕Miguel Moreno 2009 · A	19	38	39→40	42→40	48	184/276/263	79	271	7	5	32%	10%	52	-1.6	200/281/271	71	286	5	5	29%	9%	56	-1.3	176/264/209	33	250	3	3	28%	10%	29	-0.9
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	287	5	7	30%	8%	53	-1.5	193/290/269	76	317	6	5	37%	9%	60	-1.0	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Jose Cordova 2019 · A	19	47	37→40	43→50	42	220/265/294	74	271	4	4	20%	4%	53	-1.5	231/287/304	73	306	4	13	24%	5%	65	-0.7	228/295/308	79	310	5	13	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Shaydron Buckridge 2007 · A	19	46	35→30	48→50	45	214/275/271	58	272	3	5	22%	6%	52	-1.6	219/291/274	55	280	2	7	21%	7%	60	-1.0	259/340/295	36	306	0	9	14%	9%	82	+0.2
✕Jose Perez 2023 · A	19	41	36→40	44→45	51	193/275/258	65	253	3	8	24%	9%	50	-1.8	200/306/292	92	270	5	6	25%	12%	72	-0.2	182/303/271	88	244	5	5	24%	13%	64	-0.3
✕Ismerling Mota 2017 · A	19	43	40→45	46→40	41	211/253/301	90	262	8	5	23%	5%	50	-1.8	203/254/278	75	282	5	4	28%	5%	44	-2.1	180/231/230	51	220	3	0	19%	5%	20	-0.9
✕Armando Sierra 2023 · A	19	46	41→45	43→40	47	225/288/323	98	278	9	4	22%	7%	71	-0.3	214/269/315	101	304	9	4	31%	6%	60	-1.0	191/241/289	98	292	10	0	37%	6%	39	-0.5
✕Fernando Pujadas 2011 · A	19	46	42→40	42→30	47	222/280/326	104	261	8	5	19%	6%	69	-0.4	212/280/309	97	269	8	3	23%	7%	64	-0.8	208/295/292	84	266	6	1	22%	9%	63	-0.2
✕Andy Paz 2014 · A	21	45	38→40	42→45	47	212/273/289	77	273	5	5	23%	7%	56	-1.3	200/258/270	70	282	5	5	29%	7%	44	-2.1	202/252/250	48	271	3	6	25%	6%	33	-0.9