Dony Aguilera — OGILVIE

Dony Aguilera P ACL Reds

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 154 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.2 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.09

FIP5.09

K%14.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	11	46	180	31	12	0	85%	3.5	11.7%	8.3%	3.4%	0.0%	2.56	3.17	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	11	46	180	31	12	0	85%	3.5	11.7%	8.3%	3.4%	0.0%	2.56	3.17	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	13	11	46	180	31	12	0	85%	3.5	17.2%	6.7%	10.6%	0.0%	2.56	2.53	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	9	58	229	52	17	2	64%	4.2	15.4%	9.3%	6.2%	1.2%	1.70	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	9	58	229	52	17	2	64%	4.2	15.4%	9.3%	6.2%	1.2%	1.70	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	9	58	229	52	17	2	64%	4.2	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	0.9%	1.70	2.64	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	12	2	38	179	43	22	8	17%	3.2	16.7%	15.7%	1.0%	5.9%	8.45	6.90	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	12	2	38	179	43	22	8	17%	3.2	16.7%	15.7%	1.0%	5.9%	8.45	6.90	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	CIN	11	2	37	167	41	21	7	18%	3.4	24.6%	12.6%	12.0%	4.2%	7.54	4.92	—
2026	19	A RAW	CIN	1	0	1	12	2	1	1	0%	1.3	16.7%	8.3%	8.3%	8.3%	33.75	7.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CIN	52	0	55	233	38	23	6	0%	1.1	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	2.8%	4.93	4.88	-0.2
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	55	0	58	244	43	23	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	2.7%	4.79	4.73	-0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	CIN	58	0	61	257	48	24	7	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	2.7%	4.63	4.54	+0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	CIN	60	0	63	266	52	24	7	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	2.7%	4.50	4.41	+0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	CIN	62	0	65	273	55	24	7	0%	1.0	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	2.6%	4.39	4.32	+0.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	CIN	62	0	66	277	57	24	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	2.6%	4.32	4.27	+0.2
2033	26	MLB MLE	CIN	62	0	66	277	57	23	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.5%	12.2%	2.6%	4.27	4.24	+0.2
2034	27	MLB MLE	CIN	61	0	64	272	56	23	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.6%	12.1%	2.7%	4.28	4.28	+0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	CIN	26	0	27	114	19	11	3	0%	1.0	16.3%	9.9%	6.4%	3.0%	5.05	5.00	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	40	0	42	177	31	17	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.6%	7.8%	3.0%	4.91	4.85	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	CIN	49	0	51	215	40	20	6	0%	1.0	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	2.9%	4.75	4.66	+0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	CIN	54	0	57	241	47	21	7	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.9%	10.6%	2.9%	4.62	4.53	+0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	CIN	57	0	60	253	51	22	7	0%	1.1	20.1%	8.7%	11.4%	2.8%	4.51	4.44	+0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	CIN	58	0	61	258	53	22	7	0%	1.1	20.4%	8.5%	11.9%	2.8%	4.43	4.38	+0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	CIN	59	0	62	262	54	22	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.5%	12.2%	2.8%	4.38	4.35	+0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	CIN	58	0	61	258	53	22	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	8.6%	12.1%	2.9%	4.40	4.40	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		402	0	422	1780	348	158	51	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.58	4.15	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	75	24	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.9%	10.7%	2.9%	4.58	4.15	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		39	22	142	588	86	64	13	56%	3.6	14.7%	11.0%	3.7%	2.3%	3.79	4.49	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	31	200	826	121	90	19	56%	3.6	14.7%	11.0%	3.7%	2.3%	3.79	4.49	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dony Aguilera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.09	14.5%	10.2%	2.8%	—	4.71	17.5%	8.0%	174	-0.38	—	—	—
Luis Ojeda R 2016 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	12.4%	8.6%	2.4%	.344	5.39	12.1%	3.7%	92	+0.94	4.45	131	89
Steven Fuentes R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	18	SP-	4.60	12.1%	10.1%	2.3%	.319	3.85	16.7%	10.2%	131	-0.75	2.38	359	88
Edward Escoboza R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	19	SP-	4.73	15.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.345	4.05	17.4%	9.9%	157	-0.68	3.44	213	88
Alexander Vizcaíno R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	19	SP-	5.40	11.8%	10.4%	3.6%	.321	4.82	17.3%	7.0%	220	-0.58	3.85	273	87
Julio Goff R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.70	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.10	4.46	251	86
Ruben Galindo R 2021 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	15.9%	11.1%	2.8%	.345	3.51	19.0%	7.7%	149	-1.17	2.84	239	86
Aneudis Beard R 2017 · 4.69 FIP	19	SW	4.69	11.5%	11.2%	2.1%	.322	3.18	15.9%	7.2%	59	-1.51	3.18	106	86
Anthony Escobar R 2019 · 4.44 FIP	18	SP-	4.44	15.1%	9.7%	2.5%	.263	5.33	14.2%	-3.5%	23	+0.89	3.07	122	86
Zac Correll R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	13.9%	11.7%	2.5%	.282	2.82	19.3%	10.8%	72	-1.93	2.59	112	85
Williander Moreno R 2018 · 4.21 FIP	19	SW	4.21	13.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.302	5.16	20.2%	10.1%	57	+0.95	3.20	246	85
Yon Castro R 2018 · 4.21 FIP	19	SW	4.21	12.0%	9.5%	1.7%	.310	4.39	17.5%	5.6%	55	+0.18	3.20	274	85
Argenis Romano R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	20	SP-	4.32	11.5%	7.5%	2.2%	.287	4.85	14.9%	7.8%	86	+0.53	3.54	144	85
Jorge Cespedes R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	20	SW	4.88	11.2%	12.2%	2.1%	.284	4.14	12.9%	5.6%	107	-0.74	3.47	153	85
Mike Garcia R 2018 · 4.11 FIP	17	SP-	4.11	17.7%	10.6%	2.1%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	125	84
Wellington Caceres R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP-	4.16	13.9%	6.4%	2.6%	.306	5.82	13.1%	2.1%	68	+1.66	4.16	121	84
Starlyn Castillo R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	19	SP-	4.17	16.4%	13.1%	1.5%	.271	4.76	15.3%	0.9%	117	+0.59	4.17	138	84
Mauricio Estrella R 2023 · 5.38 FIP	19	SW	5.38	12.5%	10.0%	3.8%	.368	4.59	19.7%	8.2%	125	-0.79	3.42	249	84
Andres German R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	20	SW	4.97	8.7%	10.4%	2.3%	.302	3.04	13.4%	7.0%	73	-1.93	3.04	116	83
David McKay R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	21	SW	4.37	15.2%	10.2%	2.3%	.282	4.50	22.9%	12.4%	211	+0.13	3.20	288	83
Joel Díaz R 2022 · 5.45 FIP	18	SP-	5.45	15.3%	11.9%	3.9%	.335	4.86	16.2%	8.2%	174	-0.59	1.98	328	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	59	19.0%	9.0%	1.04	4.54
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38