Dony Aguilera
P
DSL Reds
+0.2
WAR
Age 19
RHP
5'11" / 154 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.0 · 2032
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.8%
BB%9.2%
K-BB%12.7%
IP54
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2032
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rojos | 13 | 11 | 46 | 180 | 31 | 12 | 0 | 11.7% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 2.56 | 3.17 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Reds | 14 | 9 | 58 | 229 | 52 | 17 | 2 | 15.4% | 9.3% | 1.2% | 1.70 | 3.65 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | CIN | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 50 | 21 | 6 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | CIN | 57 | — | 57 | 240 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.28 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 58 | 22 | 7 | 22.9% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.20 | 4.14 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 63 | 264 | 63 | 22 | 7 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 3.99 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 67 | 22 | 7 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.96 | 3.87 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 281 | 70 | 22 | 7 | 25.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.78 | +0.9 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 72 | 22 | 7 | 25.4% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.77 | 3.72 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 67 | 284 | 73 | 21 | 7 | 25.6% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 3.73 | 3.70 | +1.0 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 72 | 21 | 7 | 25.7% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.72 | 3.71 | +1.0 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 66 | 278 | 71 | 21 | 7 | 25.6% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.74 | +0.9 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 69 | 21 | 7 | 25.5% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.76 | 3.78 | +0.9 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 67 | 21 | 7 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.85 | +0.8 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 64 | 20 | 7 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.88 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 60 | 20 | 7 | 24.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.96 | 4.01 | +0.6 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 20 | 104 | 409 | 56 | 36 | 3 | 13.8% | 8.9% | 0.7% | 2.08 | 3.44 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 38 | 200 | 787 | 108 | 69 | 6 | 13.8% | 8.9% | 0.7% | 2.08 | 3.44 | +4.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dony Aguilera (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 2.8% | — | 4.12 | 23.0% | 14.5% | 179 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Andry Rondon R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.46 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.98 | 15.6% | 1.1% | 49 | +0.52 | 3.26 | 105 | 89 |
| José López R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.79 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 543 | 89 |
| Marco Raya R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.77 | 21.4% | 10.3% | 4.0% | .250 | 4.42 | 20.0% | 8.0% | 254 | -0.35 | 3.98 | 319 | 88 |
| Yimmi Brasoban R 2028 · 3.90 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.90 | 20.4% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .261 | 4.36 | 16.7% | 5.3% | 78 | +0.46 | 3.33 | 149 | 88 |
| Reggie Lawson R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.72 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 3.1% | .313 | 4.65 | 18.5% | 7.2% | 145 | -0.07 | 4.06 | 293 | 87 |
| Yoelvin Silven R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.94 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 4.88 | 17.9% | 12.6% | 88 | +0.94 | 3.94 | 254 | 87 |
| John Klein R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.53 | 17.4% | 11.4% | 2.6% | .287 | 3.72 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 207 | -0.81 | 3.22 | 260 | 87 |
| Porter Hodge R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.14 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .336 | 3.40 | 24.3% | 10.5% | 249 | -0.74 | 3.01 | 349 | 87 |
| Yohanse Morel R 2025 · 4.75 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.75 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .350 | 5.16 | 16.2% | 2.7% | 96 | +0.41 | 3.33 | 263 | 86 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2027 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 86 |
| Edgar Moreta R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.90 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .269 | 5.11 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 117 | +1.21 | 3.90 | 170 | 86 |
| Peyton Remy R 2028 · 3.57 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.57 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 2.0% | .280 | 4.71 | 16.3% | 5.2% | 140 | +1.14 | 3.57 | 286 | 86 |
| Jordy Vargas R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.72 | 19.3% | 10.7% | 1.6% | .305 | 6.47 | 20.7% | 1.7% | 31 | +2.75 | 3.02 | 181 | 86 |
| Miguel Castro R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.68 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .290 | 4.62 | 14.5% | 4.9% | 207 | -0.06 | 3.35 | 554 | 86 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2029 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 86 |
| Eury Rosado R 2027 · 3.82 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.82 | 17.2% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .231 | 5.92 | 19.2% | 5.1% | 55 | +2.10 | 3.82 | 109 | 85 |
| David Garner R 2029 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 85 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.30 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .330 | 4.81 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.51 | 4.30 | 358 | 85 |
| Chih-Jung Liu R 2029 · 4.45 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.45 | 18.8% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .331 | 6.10 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 233 | +1.65 | 4.45 | 283 | 85 |
| Daniel Álvarez R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.51 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 1.1% | .274 | 2.71 | 15.7% | 8.3% | 83 | -0.80 | 2.04 | 222 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.9 | $5M | +$3M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $34M | +$30M | ||