Dony Aguilera

P ACL Reds

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 154 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.7 · 2032

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2346ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Rojos	13	11	46	2.56	2.53	17.2%	6.7%	—	K 11.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.17
2025	18	ROKCIN	14	9	58	1.70	2.64	22.7%	7.4%	—	K 15.4% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.65
2026	19	MIX2 levels	12	2	38	8.45	5.29	24.0%	12.3%	—	K 16.7% · BB 15.7% · FIP 6.90
2027PROJ	20	MLBCIN	—	—	0	5.54	5.54	15.6%	13.4%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBCIN	19	0	20	5.43	5.36	17.0%	12.2%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBCIN	29	0	30	5.19	5.08	18.5%	11.2%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control45Command40

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsMaiker Manuel (age 20) · Jhoster Baez (age 19) · Nolberto Henriquez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%15.6%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%2.2%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	11	46	180	31	12	0	85%	3.5	11.7%	8.3%	3.4%	0.0%	2.56	3.17	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rojos	13	11	46	180	31	12	0	85%	3.5	11.7%	8.3%	3.4%	0.0%	2.56	3.17	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rojos	13	11	46	180	31	12	0	85%	3.5	17.2%	6.7%	10.6%	0.0%	2.56	2.53	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	9	58	229	52	17	2	64%	4.2	15.4%	9.3%	6.2%	1.2%	1.70	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	14	9	58	229	52	17	2	64%	4.2	15.4%	9.3%	6.2%	1.2%	1.70	3.65	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	14	9	58	229	52	17	2	64%	4.2	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	0.9%	1.70	2.64	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	38	179	43	22	8	17%	3.2	16.7%	15.7%	1.0%	5.9%	8.45	6.90	—
2026	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	2	38	179	43	22	8	17%	3.2	16.7%	15.7%	1.0%	5.9%	8.45	6.90	—
2026	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	2	38	179	43	22	8	17%	3.2	24.0%	12.3%	11.7%	4.5%	8.45	5.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.0%	5.54	5.54	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	CIN	39	0	41	174	30	21	5	0%	1.1	17.0%	12.2%	4.8%	3.0%	5.30	5.23	-0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	CIN	39	0	41	174	32	20	5	0%	1.1	18.5%	11.2%	7.2%	2.9%	5.06	4.95	-0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	CIN	39	0	41	174	34	19	5	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.6%	8.8%	2.9%	4.87	4.77	-0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	CIN	39	0	41	174	35	18	5	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.3%	9.8%	2.9%	4.73	4.65	-0.0
2032	25	MLB MLE	CIN	38	0	40	168	35	17	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	2.8%	4.64	4.59	-0.0
2033	26	MLB MLE	CIN	38	0	40	169	35	17	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.1%	10.6%	2.8%	4.60	4.57	-0.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	CIN	37	0	39	166	34	17	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.1%	10.6%	2.9%	4.60	4.60	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	CIN	19	0	20	84	14	10	3	0%	1.1	17.0%	12.2%	4.8%	3.2%	5.43	5.36	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	CIN	29	0	30	127	23	14	4	0%	1.0	18.5%	11.2%	7.2%	3.2%	5.19	5.08	-0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	CIN	33	0	35	148	29	16	5	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.6%	8.8%	3.1%	5.00	4.90	-0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	CIN	35	0	37	156	31	16	5	0%	1.1	20.1%	10.3%	9.8%	3.1%	4.86	4.78	-0.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	CIN	35	0	37	156	32	16	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.1%	10.4%	3.1%	4.76	4.71	-0.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	CIN	35	0	37	156	32	16	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.72	4.69	-0.0
2034	27	MLB CTX	CIN	35	0	37	156	32	16	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	10.1%	10.6%	3.1%	4.73	4.73	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		222	0	233	985	195	104	31	0%	1.1	19.8%	10.5%	9.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.47	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	89	27	0%	1.1	19.8%	10.5%	9.2%	3.1%	4.91	4.47	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		39	22	142	588	86	64	13	56%	3.6	14.7%	11.0%	3.7%	2.3%	3.79	4.49	+2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	31	200	826	121	90	19	56%	3.6	14.7%	11.0%	3.7%	2.3%	3.79	4.49	+1.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Reds · 37 IPFIP 4.92 → 6.90 (+1.98)K% 24.6% → 16.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.55%	—	×0.680	16.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.57%	—	×1.250	15.72%
HR / BF /BF	4.19%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.87%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.92 → 6.90, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Reds · 58 IPFIP 2.60 → 3.65 (+1.04)K% 22.7% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.71%	—	×0.680	15.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.42%	—	×1.250	9.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.87%	÷0.994	×1.400	1.23%

Result: FIP 2.60 → 3.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Rojos · 46 IPFIP 2.49 → 3.17 (+0.68)K% 17.2% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.22%	—	×0.680	11.71%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.67%	—	×1.250	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.49 → 3.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dony Aguilera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	15.6%	13.4%	3.0%	—	4.98	18.3%	7.0%	124	-0.56	—	—	—
Maiker Manuel R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	15.0%	13.2%	1.9%	.278	4.62	15.3%	11.5%	51	+0.06	4.56	148	88
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	87
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	87
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	87
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	86
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	86
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	85
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	85
Jorge Cespedes R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	20	SW	4.88	11.2%	12.2%	2.1%	.284	4.14	12.9%	5.6%	107	-0.74	3.47	153	85
Julio Goff R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.70	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.10	4.46	251	85
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	85
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	84
Yondrei Rojas R 2023 · 4.59 FIP	20	SP-	4.59	14.0%	11.2%	2.3%	.312	4.10	20.9%	10.2%	123	-0.49	2.60	240	84
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	83
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	83
Joshua Quezada R 2024 · 4.46 FIP	20	SP-	4.46	18.3%	11.7%	2.6%	.293	4.03	19.6%	10.8%	80	-0.43	3.61	161	83
Eduardo Soriano R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	20	SP-	5.06	16.5%	12.5%	3.2%	.306	4.32	15.1%	-4.5%	29	-0.74	4.32	109	83
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Moises Gomez R 2017 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	15.3%	13.8%	3.7%	.297	4.26	22.7%	12.1%	102	-1.32	3.23	258	82
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	39	19.2%	10.9%	1.12	4.89
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*