Jonaikel Meza — OGILVIE

Jonaikel Meza P ACL Guardians

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 154 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%19.2%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	12	0	17	80	15	11	1	0%	1.4	12.8%	17.2%	-4.4%	1.7%	1.62	5.16	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	12	0	17	80	15	11	1	0%	1.4	12.8%	17.2%	-4.4%	1.7%	1.62	5.16	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	12	0	17	80	15	11	1	0%	1.4	18.8%	13.8%	5.0%	1.2%	1.62	4.06	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	15	0	23	101	17	13	0	0%	1.5	11.4%	16.1%	-4.6%	0.0%	3.97	4.17	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	15	0	23	101	17	13	0	0%	1.5	11.4%	16.1%	-4.6%	0.0%	3.97	4.17	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	15	0	23	101	17	13	0	0%	1.5	16.8%	12.9%	4.0%	0.0%	3.97	3.32	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	9	2	21	109	25	10	2	22%	2.4	15.6%	11.5%	4.1%	2.6%	7.59	4.65	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	9	2	21	109	25	10	2	22%	2.4	15.6%	11.5%	4.1%	2.6%	7.59	4.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	CLE	9	2	21	109	25	10	2	22%	2.4	22.9%	9.2%	13.8%	1.8%	7.59	3.33	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CLE	21	0	22	92	19	12	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	12.8%	7.4%	2.9%	5.06	4.96	-0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	CLE	10	0	11	46	9	6	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.8%	7.4%	2.9%	5.06	4.96	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	45	9	6	1	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.8%	7.4%	2.9%	5.06	4.58	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	111	19	0%	1.1	20.3%	12.8%	7.4%	2.9%	5.06	4.58	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		36	2	61	290	39	42	4	6%	1.7	13.4%	14.7%	-1.3%	1.4%	4.60	4.62	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	7	200	956	128	140	14	6%	1.7	13.4%	14.7%	-1.3%	1.4%	4.60	4.62	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jonaikel Meza (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	19.2%	14.6%	2.9%	—	4.96	20.3%	7.4%	22	-0.34	—	—	—
Kevin Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	18	SU	4.37	17.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.279	4.14	16.7%	7.6%	41	-0.23	2.34	188	88
Carlos De Los Santos R 2019 · 5.68 FIP	18	SU	5.68	16.9%	16.0%	3.6%	.286	3.95	20.9%	3.2%	86	-1.73	3.67	173	86
Jonathan Jimenez R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	19	SU	5.41	16.4%	16.2%	3.0%	.333	5.09	14.1%	2.2%	178	-0.32	3.49	189	86
Raimon Gomez R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SW	4.90	17.3%	13.6%	2.8%	.265	3.28	19.5%	8.0%	48	-1.62	3.28	103	86
Alejandro Lugo R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SU	4.91	20.4%	16.7%	2.6%	.265	4.96	16.7%	3.1%	98	+0.05	3.77	159	85
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	85
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	85
Jesus Colina R 2023 · 5.30 FIP	18	SU	5.30	15.3%	15.2%	2.9%	.265	4.00	17.2%	7.6%	103	-1.30	3.82	128	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	84
Seth Mayberry R 2019 · 4.12 FIP	19	SU	4.12	18.3%	14.4%	1.4%	.270	3.41	23.6%	10.3%	53	-0.71	2.88	120	84
Alejandro Méndez R 2021 · 5.70 FIP	20	SU	5.70	14.6%	14.5%	3.6%	.321	5.60	15.8%	-7.5%	91	-0.10	4.65	136	83
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	83
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	83
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	83
Doimil Perez R 2023 · 5.95 FIP	19	SU	5.95	17.8%	14.7%	4.5%	.322	5.36	16.6%	-2.0%	47	-0.59	3.32	139	83
Jose Luis Reyes R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	18	SU	4.49	17.0%	16.3%	1.4%	.262	4.59	14.4%	5.4%	145	+0.10	4.49	206	83
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	82
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	82
Francisco Frias R 2023 · 5.74 FIP	18	SU	5.74	20.8%	14.1%	4.8%	.294	4.83	19.2%	2.2%	134	-0.91	4.00	148	82
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.79	29.0%	15.6%	152	-1.12	3.38	209	82