Manuel Davila
P
DSL Brewers Blue
Age 18
RHP
6'0" / 140 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.5 · 2033
2026 ROS PROJECTION6 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 108
ERA4.76
FIP4.76
K%18.8%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%9.0%
ROS IP6
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 11 | 10 | 52 | 209 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 91% | 4.8 | 16.9% | 6.0% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 2.41 | 2.43 | — |
| 2024 | 16 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 11 | 10 | 52 | 209 | 52 | 10 | 0 | 91% | 4.8 | 24.9% | 4.8% | 20.1% | 0.0% | 2.41 | 1.69 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | ACL Padres | 13 | 0 | 20 | 99 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 8.9% | 13.9% | -5.0% | 5.5% | 9.61 | 7.10 | — |
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | ACL Padres | 13 | 0 | 20 | 99 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 13.1% | 11.1% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 9.61 | 6.10 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers Blue | 6 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5.68 | — | — |
| 2026 | 18 | ROK | MIL | 6 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.2% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 5.68 | 2.97 | — |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | MIL | 6 | 0 | 6 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.76 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 18 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 12 | 58 | 10 | 5 | 1 | — | — | 16.7% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 1.3% | 5.24 | 2.29 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | MIL | 47 | 0 | 50 | 209 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.63 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 46 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 231 | 49 | 20 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 55 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 54 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 14.0% | 2.8% | 4.25 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 57 | 0 | 59 | 251 | 58 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 61 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 62 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.9% | 7.6% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 59 | 0 | 62 | 261 | 63 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 7.5% | 16.6% | 2.7% | 3.89 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 62 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.1% | 7.6% | 16.5% | 2.7% | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | MIL | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.54 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB | MIL | 36 | 0 | 38 | 160 | 33 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.47 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB | MIL | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 8.6% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 48 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 14.0% | 2.7% | 4.22 | 4.13 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 52 | 0 | 55 | 232 | 53 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 7.9% | 15.1% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 241 | 57 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 15.8% | 2.6% | 3.98 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.9% | 7.6% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 3.91 | 3.86 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 56 | 0 | 59 | 249 | 60 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.5% | 16.6% | 2.6% | 3.86 | 3.83 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 59 | 19 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.1% | 7.6% | 16.5% | 2.7% | 3.87 | 3.87 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 425 | 0 | 447 | 1886 | 431 | 151 | 51 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 3.66 | +4.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 193 | 68 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 14.8% | 2.7% | 4.10 | 3.66 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 30 | 10 | 78 | 341 | 49 | 29 | 5 | 33% | 2.6 | 14.4% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 4.48 | 3.84 | +2.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 26 | 200 | 871 | 126 | 75 | 14 | 33% | 2.6 | 14.4% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 4.48 | 3.84 | +1.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Manuel Davila (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.76 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.44 | 20.7% | 11.8% | 156 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Leury Tejada R 2018 · 4.03 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.03 | 16.5% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .286 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 6.2% | 39 | +1.03 | 4.03 | 183 | 89 |
| Yorlin Calderon R 2019 · 4.90 FIP | 17 | SW | 4.90 | 15.4% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .275 | 4.95 | 20.3% | 13.1% | 84 | +0.05 | 3.35 | 287 | 88 |
| Antwone Kelly R 2022 · 4.58 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.58 | 19.1% | 12.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 3.92 | 19.2% | 8.2% | 216 | -0.66 | 3.19 | 354 | 86 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2017 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.87 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.41 | 4.13 | 179 | 86 |
| Saul Teran R 2022 · 5.23 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.23 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 4.3% | .333 | 3.83 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 94 | -1.40 | 2.28 | 159 | 84 |
| Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.59 | 17.4% | 7.4% | 3.7% | .360 | 5.41 | 16.1% | 3.7% | 88 | +0.82 | 4.59 | 120 | 83 |
| Kevin Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.37 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.37 | 17.4% | 12.8% | 2.0% | .279 | 4.13 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 41 | -0.24 | 2.34 | 188 | 82 |
| Kevin Tejada R 2023 · 3.85 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.85 | 17.4% | 10.0% | 1.7% | .284 | 5.84 | 12.6% | 1.5% | 73 | +1.99 | 3.85 | 104 | 82 |
| Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.63 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | 5.21 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.58 | 3.00 | 538 | 82 |
| Andres Sanchez R 2015 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.33 | 13.4% | 9.5% | 2.1% | .277 | 5.85 | 10.5% | -3.7% | 89 | +1.52 | 4.33 | 105 | 81 |
| Ricardo Brizuela R 2022 · 3.86 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.86 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .375 | 4.52 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 208 | +0.66 | 3.35 | 246 | 81 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.54 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.54 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .356 | 4.26 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 111 | -0.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 81 |
| Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.51 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.51 | 15.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | .319 | 5.02 | 11.8% | 3.1% | 103 | +0.51 | 3.79 | 135 | 81 |
| Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.92 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.08 | 3.34 | 213 | 81 |
| Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.85 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .304 | 5.11 | 20.9% | 1.8% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.16 | 260 | 80 |
| Greiber Mendez R 2022 · 5.12 FIP | 18 | SU | 5.12 | 15.7% | 11.5% | 3.4% | .330 | 4.85 | 16.7% | 2.5% | 152 | -0.27 | 3.66 | 227 | 80 |
| Raimon Gomez R 2021 · 5.07 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.07 | 17.3% | 13.6% | 3.1% | .265 | 3.30 | 19.5% | 8.0% | 48 | -1.77 | 3.30 | 103 | 79 |
| Angel Guillen R 2015 · 3.92 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.92 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .411 | 3.44 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 78 | -0.48 | 3.37 | 181 | 79 |
| Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.26 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.02 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 72 | -0.24 | 3.20 | 104 | 79 |
| Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.63 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .315 | 3.97 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 123 | -0.66 | 3.82 | 155 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 136 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2.7 | 54 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 1.07 | 4.18 |
| Nick Wittgren ('23) | 1.6 | 41 | 21.6% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 4.04 |
| Buck Farmer ('24) | 2.5 | 50 | 21.6% | 10.5% | 1.23 | 4.59 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 1.5 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 2.5 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 2.1 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |
| JT Chargois ('24) | 1.2 | 33 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 0.97 | 3.35 |