Manuel Davila — OGILVIE

Manuel Davila P DSL Brewers Blue

Age 18 RHP 6'0" / 140 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%18.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.0%

ROS IP18

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	52	209	52	10	0	91%	4.8	16.9%	6.0%	10.9%	0.0%	2.41	2.43	—
2024	16	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	52	209	52	10	0	91%	4.8	16.9%	6.0%	10.9%	0.0%	2.41	2.43	—
2024	16	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	11	10	52	209	52	10	0	91%	4.8	24.9%	4.8%	20.1%	0.0%	2.41	1.69	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	0	20	99	13	11	4	0%	1.5	8.9%	13.9%	-5.0%	5.6%	9.61	7.16	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	13	0	20	99	13	11	4	0%	1.5	8.9%	13.9%	-5.0%	5.6%	9.61	7.16	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	13	0	20	99	13	11	4	0%	1.5	13.1%	11.1%	2.0%	4.0%	9.61	6.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	9	0	9	48	10	3	1	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	9	0	9	48	10	3	1	0%	1.0	—	—	—	—	6.75	—	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	MIL	9	0	9	48	10	3	1	0%	1.0	20.8%	6.2%	14.6%	2.1%	6.75	3.28	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIL	47	0	50	209	42	19	6	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	2.9%	4.63	4.57	-0.0
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIL	50	0	52	220	46	20	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.51	4.43	+0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIL	52	0	55	231	49	20	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	2.8%	4.40	4.32	+0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIL	55	0	57	242	54	20	7	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	2.8%	4.26	4.16	+0.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIL	57	0	59	251	58	20	7	0%	1.0	23.0%	7.9%	15.1%	2.7%	4.12	4.03	+0.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIL	58	0	61	257	61	20	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.7%	15.8%	2.7%	4.01	3.94	+0.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIL	59	0	62	261	62	20	7	0%	1.0	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.7%	3.94	3.89	+0.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIL	59	0	62	261	63	20	7	0%	1.0	24.1%	7.5%	16.6%	2.7%	3.89	3.86	+0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIL	58	0	61	257	62	20	7	0%	1.0	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	2.7%	3.90	3.90	+0.5
2027	19	MLB CTX	MIL	23	0	24	101	20	9	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.2%	10.7%	3.1%	4.71	4.65	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIL	36	0	38	160	33	14	5	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	3.0%	4.59	4.51	+0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIL	44	0	46	194	41	17	6	0%	1.0	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	3.0%	4.48	4.40	+0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIL	49	0	51	215	48	18	6	0%	1.0	22.2%	8.2%	14.0%	2.9%	4.34	4.24	+0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIL	52	0	55	232	53	18	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	7.9%	15.1%	2.9%	4.19	4.10	+0.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIL	54	0	57	241	57	19	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	7.7%	15.8%	2.8%	4.08	4.01	+0.4
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIL	56	0	59	249	60	19	7	0%	1.1	23.9%	7.6%	16.3%	2.8%	4.01	3.96	+0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIL	56	0	59	249	60	19	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	7.5%	16.6%	2.8%	3.96	3.93	+0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIL	55	0	58	245	59	19	7	0%	1.1	24.1%	7.6%	16.5%	2.9%	3.97	3.97	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		425	0	447	1886	431	151	54	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.0%	14.8%	2.9%	4.20	3.77	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	68	24	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.0%	14.8%	2.9%	4.20	3.77	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		33	10	81	356	54	29	7	30%	2.5	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	1.8%	4.65	3.86	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	25	200	875	133	72	16	30%	2.5	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	1.8%	4.65	3.86	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Davila (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	18.8%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.44	20.7%	11.8%	156	-0.32	—	—	—
Leury Tejada R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	18	SW	4.03	16.5%	10.1%	1.9%	.286	5.06	17.4%	6.2%	39	+1.03	4.03	183	88
Harold Cortijo R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.64	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.18	4.15	179	88
Yorlin Calderon R 2019 · 4.90 FIP	17	SW	4.90	15.4%	8.3%	3.7%	.275	5.02	20.3%	13.1%	84	+0.12	3.43	287	88
Saul Teran R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.5%	9.8%	3.5%	.333	3.88	20.8%	8.7%	94	-0.93	2.28	166	86
Kevin Tejada R 2023 · 3.97 FIP	18	SU	3.97	17.4%	10.0%	1.9%	.284	5.53	13.1%	2.7%	78	+1.56	3.97	108	85
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	83
Kevin Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	18	SU	4.37	17.4%	12.8%	2.0%	.279	4.14	16.7%	7.6%	41	-0.23	2.34	188	83
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	82
Andres Sanchez R 2015 · 4.33 FIP	18	SW	4.33	13.4%	9.5%	2.1%	.277	5.85	10.5%	-3.7%	89	+1.52	4.33	105	82
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	82
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	82
Greiber Mendez R 2022 · 4.92 FIP	18	SU	4.92	15.7%	11.5%	3.1%	.330	4.78	16.7%	2.5%	152	-0.14	3.64	247	81
Ricardo Brizuela R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SW	4.03	20.1%	11.6%	2.1%	.375	4.39	16.0%	7.1%	208	+0.36	3.20	246	81
Angel Guillen R 2015 · 3.92 FIP	18	SU	3.92	20.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.411	3.44	15.7%	8.6%	78	-0.48	3.37	181	81
Joseilyn Gonzalez R 2022 · 4.98 FIP	20	SU	4.98	14.5%	8.5%	3.7%	.321	5.20	14.5%	-3.2%	107	+0.22	4.98	168	81
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	80
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	80
Raimon Gomez R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SW	4.90	17.3%	13.6%	2.8%	.265	3.28	19.5%	8.0%	48	-1.62	3.28	103	80
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	80
David Tiburcio R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	19	SU	4.36	15.0%	10.2%	2.2%	.241	6.16	13.3%	0.6%	96	+1.80	4.36	126	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	54	22.5%	8.2%	1.07	4.19
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35