Davis Chastain — OGILVIE

Davis Chastain P Great Lakes Loons

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 163 lbs A+ peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%24.0%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 37 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	6	0	7	29	9	1	0	0%	1.2	31.0%	3.4%	27.6%	0.0%	2.45	0.92	—
2025	21	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	6	0	7	29	9	1	0	0%	1.2	31.0%	3.4%	27.6%	0.0%	2.45	0.92	—
2025	21	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	6	0	7	29	9	1	0	0%	1.2	31.0%	3.4%	27.6%	0.0%	2.45	1.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	41	0	54	232	76	29	4	0%	1.3	25.2%	14.4%	10.8%	2.2%	2.52	3.97	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Great Lakes Loons	41	0	54	232	76	29	4	0%	1.3	25.2%	14.4%	10.8%	2.2%	2.52	3.97	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	LAD	41	0	54	232	76	29	4	0%	1.3	32.8%	12.5%	20.3%	1.7%	2.52	2.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAD	52	0	55	231	57	24	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.5%	14.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.33	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAD	53	0	56	236	59	23	7	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.20	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAD	54	0	57	239	61	23	7	0%	1.1	25.4%	9.4%	16.0%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAD	54	0	57	239	61	22	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	9.4%	16.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.10	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAD	53	0	56	236	60	22	7	0%	1.1	25.5%	9.4%	16.1%	2.9%	4.14	4.14	+0.3
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAD	26	0	27	114	28	12	3	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.5%	14.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.33	+0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAD	37	0	39	165	41	16	5	0%	1.1	25.1%	9.8%	15.3%	2.9%	4.29	4.20	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAD	44	0	46	194	49	18	6	0%	1.0	25.4%	9.4%	16.0%	2.9%	4.19	4.12	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAD	48	0	50	211	54	20	6	0%	1.0	25.6%	9.4%	16.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.10	+0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAD	48	0	50	211	54	20	6	0%	1.0	25.5%	9.4%	16.1%	2.9%	4.14	4.14	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		202	0	212	896	227	86	26	0%	1.1	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	2.9%	4.21	3.78	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	214	81	25	0%	1.1	25.3%	9.6%	15.7%	2.9%	4.21	3.78	+1.8
Career	—	MLE		47	0	61	261	68	34	5	0%	1.3	25.9%	13.2%	12.7%	1.9%	2.51	3.63	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	0	200	856	221	113	16	0%	1.3	25.9%	13.2%	12.7%	1.9%	2.51	3.63	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davis Chastain (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	24.0%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.22	25.1%	15.2%	167	-0.33	—	—	—
Jacob Wallace R 2021 · 4.26 FIP	22	SU	4.26	26.6%	13.1%	3.2%	.316	4.77	23.8%	7.0%	167	+0.51	3.50	279	91
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	90
Donovan Benoit R 2022 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	25.3%	12.4%	1.9%	.284	4.43	17.6%	4.3%	138	+0.85	3.58	183	90
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	89
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	89
Justin Yeager R 2021 · 3.59 FIP	23	SU	3.59	26.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.281	3.96	25.4%	12.6%	103	+0.37	3.32	262	89
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	89
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	89
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	89
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	88
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Nic Enright R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	22	SU	3.63	24.6%	12.2%	1.9%	.263	3.01	29.6%	23.5%	124	-0.62	0.56	249	88
Stephen Jones R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	24	SU	3.62	23.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.304	4.53	21.5%	9.8%	142	+0.91	3.62	309	88
Jacob Dorris R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	26.9%	12.4%	3.2%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.42	4.16	130	88
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	87
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	87
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	87
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	87
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	53	25.1%	9.9%	1.13	4.27
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22