Justin Lugo — OGILVIE

Justin Lugo P DSL Brewers Gold

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 11 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.69

FIP5.69

K%22.9%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%2.9%

ROS IP11

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 11 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	9	2	15	66	22	15	0	22%	1.7	22.7%	28.4%	-5.7%	0.0%	6.00	4.78	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	9	2	15	66	22	15	0	22%	1.7	22.7%	28.4%	-5.7%	0.0%	6.00	4.78	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	9	2	15	66	22	15	0	22%	1.7	33.3%	22.7%	10.6%	0.0%	6.00	3.17	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	17	0	22	103	29	17	1	0%	1.3	19.1%	20.6%	-1.5%	1.3%	4.50	4.81	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	17	0	22	103	29	17	1	0%	1.3	19.1%	20.6%	-1.5%	1.3%	4.50	4.81	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	17	0	22	103	29	17	1	0%	1.3	28.2%	16.5%	11.7%	1.0%	4.50	3.37	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	12	0	18	83	29	19	1	0%	1.5	23.8%	28.6%	-4.9%	1.7%	5.89	5.64	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	12	0	18	83	29	19	1	0%	1.5	23.8%	28.6%	-4.9%	1.7%	5.89	5.64	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	12	0	18	83	29	19	1	0%	1.5	34.9%	22.9%	12.0%	1.2%	5.89	3.75	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	10	0	11	46	11	9	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	20.0%	2.9%	2.9%	5.69	5.69	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	20	0	21	88	21	15	3	0%	1.0	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	2.9%	5.32	5.16	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	10	0	10	42	10	7	1	0%	1.0	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	2.9%	5.32	5.16	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	10	43	10	7	1	0%	1.0	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	2.9%	5.32	4.78	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	137	20	0%	1.1	23.8%	16.6%	7.2%	2.9%	5.32	4.78	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		38	2	55	252	54	64	3	5%	1.5	21.6%	25.3%	-3.7%	1.1%	5.37	5.08	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	7	200	911	197	230	10	5%	1.5	21.6%	25.3%	-3.7%	1.1%	5.37	5.08	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Lugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.69	22.9%	20.0%	2.9%	—	5.16	23.8%	7.2%	21	-0.53	—	—	—
Jordy Luciano R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	21	SU	4.97	24.9%	22.3%	2.1%	.306	5.33	17.1%	-4.8%	80	+0.36	4.97	104	91
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	88
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	88
Andrew Schultz R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	22	SU	5.25	20.9%	17.8%	3.0%	.345	4.59	23.0%	4.7%	45	-0.66	3.56	176	88
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	87
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	87
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	86
Marcus Crescentini R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	22	SU	5.80	21.8%	21.9%	3.2%	.365	3.95	23.3%	11.6%	123	-1.85	2.74	150	86
Osiel Rodriguez R 2023 · 4.82 FIP	21	SU	4.82	22.7%	15.7%	3.0%	.263	5.62	22.0%	7.6%	56	+0.80	3.38	124	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	85
Carlos Contreras R 2014 · 4.77 FIP	23	SU	4.77	20.2%	18.1%	2.0%	.304	4.35	18.4%	5.0%	107	-0.42	4.29	127	85
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	85
James Acuna R 2021 · 5.12 FIP	23	SU	5.12	21.3%	17.0%	3.0%	.302	4.33	19.4%	4.6%	60	-0.79	4.33	107	85
Konnor Ash R 2022 · 4.57 FIP	23	SU	4.57	22.2%	17.0%	2.2%	.340	3.56	22.4%	8.7%	87	-1.01	2.11	127	84
Adonis Villavicencio R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	21	SU	4.65	21.5%	21.9%	1.1%	.316	3.93	18.0%	3.9%	90	-0.72	3.21	115	83
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	83
Jonathan Teaney R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	22.5%	19.8%	1.9%	.328	5.65	16.4%	0.7%	55	+0.88	4.77	108	83
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	83
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	83
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	83