JP Smith II

1B Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 22 R/R 6'2" / 240 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2422ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	AMIN	101	.237/.297/.344	2	1	32	—	.179/.228/.274
2026	21	A+/AMIN	443	.235/.367/.450	22	8	80	—	.190/.293/.354
2027PROJMLE	22	MLBMIN	542	.208/.297/.376	20	8	90	0.5
2028PROJ43% MLB	23	MLBMIN	170	.213/.301/.386	7	3	93	-0.1
2029PROJ58% MLB	24	MLBMIN	255	.216/.303/.391	10	4	95	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

wOBA89

BB%89

wRC+88

ISO85

Whiff%76

K%75

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 92%

CompsEric Campbell (age 22) · Agustín Ramírez (age 22) · Travis Jones (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .294 / .373

PA210

HR8

K%24

BB%10

ISO168

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 57

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER57

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	93	22	2	1	2	7	25	1	1	0	237	297	344	641	108	303	25	7	291	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	124	100	27	3	0	7	22	24	1	2	1	270	407	510	917	240	286	19	18	402	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	319	258	57	8	0	15	47	64	5	6	1	221	352	426	778	205	223	20	15	341	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	95	17	1	1	2	5	34	1	1	0	179	228	274	501	95	258	34	5	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	—	124	106	24	2	0	6	16	31	1	2	1	226	333	415	748	189	252	25	13	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	319	272	48	6	0	12	33	87	5	6	1	176	277	331	608	154	191	27	10	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	95	17	1	1	2	5	34	1	1	0	179	228	274	501	95	254	34	5	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	93	22	2	1	2	7	25	1	1	0	237	297	344	641	108	303	25	7	291	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	443	379	73	9	0	18	48	118	6	8	2	193	293	359	652	166	217	27	11	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	443	358	84	11	0	22	69	88	6	8	2	235	367	450	817	215	240	20	16	358	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	94	17	1	1	2	5	34	1	1	0	181	228	277	504	96	258	34	5	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	443	386	73	9	0	18	48	118	6	8	2	189	293	352	646	163	208	27	11	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	94	17	1	1	2	5	34	1	1	0	181	228	277	504	96	258	34	5	215	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	443	386	73	9	0	18	48	118	6	8	2	189	293	352	646	163	208	27	11	286	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIN	0%	542	477	99	16	2	20	55	130	5	8	2	208	297	376	673	168	239	24	10	301	90	-7	+1	+0	-10	+12	0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	43%	393	346	73	12	1	15	40	93	4	6	2	212	300	385	685	172	243	24	10	306	93	-3	+0	+0	-7	+9	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	58%	441	390	85	14	2	17	44	104	4	7	2	216	303	390	694	175	246	24	10	309	95	-2	+1	+0	-8	+10	-0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	485	428	93	15	2	19	49	114	5	7	2	218	305	393	698	176	249	24	10	311	97	-2	+1	+0	-9	+11	0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	68%	498	440	96	16	2	19	50	116	5	7	2	219	305	394	700	175	251	23	10	312	97	-2	+1	+0	-9	+11	0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	68%	501	441	97	16	2	19	50	117	5	7	2	219	305	392	697	173	252	23	10	311	97	-2	+1	+0	-9	+11	0.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIN	68%	498	441	95	16	2	18	49	118	5	5	2	217	303	387	690	170	251	24	10	308	95	-3	+0	-1	-9	+11	-0.2
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIN	66%	487	432	93	15	2	18	48	117	4	4	1	215	300	381	681	166	249	24	10	304	92	-5	+0	-1	-9	+11	-0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIN	66%	475	422	89	15	1	17	46	115	4	2	1	211	296	372	668	161	247	24	10	299	89	-6	+0	-2	-8	+10	-0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIN	65%	459	408	85	14	1	16	44	113	4	2	1	207	291	362	653	155	243	25	10	293	85	-8	+0	-3	-8	+10	-1.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	43%	170	149	33	5	1	7	17	40	2	3	1	213	301	386	686	173	243	24	10	306	93	-1	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	58%	255	224	49	8	1	10	26	60	3	4	1	216	303	391	695	175	246	24	10	310	95	-1	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	314	277	60	10	1	12	31	74	3	5	1	218	305	394	699	176	249	24	10	312	97	-1	+1	+0	-6	+7	0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	68%	339	299	65	11	1	13	34	79	3	5	1	219	306	395	701	176	251	23	10	312	97	-1	+1	+0	-6	+7	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	68%	341	301	66	11	1	13	34	80	3	5	1	220	305	393	699	174	252	23	10	311	97	-1	+1	+0	-6	+7	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIN	68%	339	299	65	11	1	13	34	80	3	4	1	218	303	388	691	171	251	24	10	308	95	-2	+0	-0	-6	+7	-0.1
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIN	66%	324	286	62	10	1	12	32	78	3	2	1	215	300	381	682	166	249	24	10	305	92	-3	+0	-1	-6	+7	-0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIN	66%	311	275	59	10	1	11	30	75	3	1	1	212	296	373	670	161	247	24	10	300	89	-4	-0	-1	-6	+7	-0.5
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIN	65%	298	264	55	9	1	10	29	73	3	1	0	207	291	363	654	155	244	24	10	293	85	-5	+0	-2	-5	+6	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2691	2374	514	85	9	101	267	639	26	30	8	217	303	388	690	171	250	24	10	307	91	-21	+3	-5	-48	+58	-1.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	124	21	2	24	64	154	6	7	2	216	301	386	687	169	251	24	10	307	91	-5	+1	-1	-12	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	4991	4407	935	149	17	186	494	1210	49	59	18	212	299	380	679	168	246	24	10	302	91	-36	+4	-7	-79	+96	-2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	121	19	2	24	64	158	6	8	2	211	296	376	672	166	245	24	10	302	91	-5	+1	-1	-12	+14	-0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 319 PAwOBA .342 → .271 (−71)K% 20.1% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.06%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	27.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.73%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	—	10.17%
HBP% /PA	1.57%	—	×0.780	—	—	1.22%
Singles /BIP	17.53%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.959	—	15.47%
Doubles /BIP	4.12%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.959	—	3.28%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.959	—	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.73%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	—	6.19%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.

Result: wOBA .342 → .271; ISO .205 → .166; BABIP .223 → .191. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 124 PAwOBA .395 → .324 (−71)K% 19.4% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.35%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	24.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.74%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×1.012	12.75%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.790	—	×1.012	0.64%
Singles /BIP	22.37%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.981	×1.012	20.43%
Doubles /BIP	3.95%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.981	×1.012	3.17%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	×0.981	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	9.21%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	7.46%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.

Result: wOBA .395 → .324; ISO .240 → .196; BABIP .286 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 101 PAwOBA .283 → .215 (−68)K% 24.8% → 33.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	24.75%	÷0.994	×1.360	—	—	33.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.93%	÷1.054	×0.690	—	×1.015	4.60%
HBP% /PA	0.99%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.78%
Singles /BIP	25.00%	÷1.029	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	21.56%
Doubles /BIP	2.94%	÷1.032	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	2.28%
Triples /BIP	1.47%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	1.29%
Home runs /BIP	2.94%	÷0.898	×0.800	—	×1.015	2.66%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 106, 2B 106, 3B 100, K 99, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .283 → .215; ISO .108 → .085; BABIP .303 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	5.6	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
/162	664	35	4	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
#2Chas McCormicklast yr '25 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,567 PA	2.4	1,567	56	37	247	321	413	+2	+14	7.3	7.3
/162	664	24	16	+0.8	+6.0	3.1	pk7: 7
#3Phil Plantier'90-'97 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,165 PA	3.3	2,165	91	13	234*	322*	444*	-25	+10	6.5	6.7
/162	664	28	4	-7.7	+3.0	2.0	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.4	2,900	107	33	216	298	385	+6	+4	7.0	6.4
/162	664	25	8	+1.3	+0.8	1.6	pk7: 6
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#6Carl Warwick'61-'66 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,616 PA	2.4	1,616	31	13	245*	309*	381*	-9	-1	1.4	1.4
/162	664	13	5	-3.6	-0.6	0.6	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
JP Smith II (OGILVIE)	22	39→44	52→57	46→51	60	206/294/373	167	239	8	3	24%	10%	90	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eric Campbell 2008 · A	22	42→48	53→55	48→50	43	223/270/391	167	249	22	10	21%	5%	84	+0.1	219/276/354	135	249	16	5	19%	7%	77	-0.3	226/287/373	148	253	18	3	18%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Travis Jones 2008 · A	22	43→48	51→45	45→50	50	225/308/381	156	268	20	9	24%	9%	96	+1.0	213/287/338	125	280	13	14	27%	8%	78	-0.3	205/279/321	116	273	11	16	28%	8%	68	-0.7
●Jerry Sands 2010 · A	22	41→46	55→60	50→45	45	219/286/401	182	274	23	4	29%	8%	92	+0.7	233/298/422	189	288	24	7	27%	8%	101	+1.4	229/296/414	185	280	24	6	27%	8%	99	+1.3
✕Damiano Palmegiani 2023 · A	23	37→42	53→50	50→40	44	205/281/376	172	252	22	5	29%	7%	85	+0.2	198/279/345	147	276	17	5	33%	8%	78	-0.3	183/271/316	133	262	16	3	34%	8%	66	-0.8
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→46	51→50	51→45	45	211/318/370	159	292	18	7	32%	9%	99	+1.2	219/326/372	153	274	16	7	25%	8%	101	+1.4	219/329/369	150	272	17	7	24%	9%	99	+0.8
✕Rylan Bannon 2018 · A	22	45→47	50	51→50	44	233/296/384	151	285	19	8	25%	7%	92	+0.7	222/293/367	145	291	16	5	28%	8%	86	+0.3	194/292/330	136	256	16	12	29%	11%	76	-0.3
●Andy Pages 2023 · AA	22	39→49	56→60	45→50	45	211/297/402	191	273	24	6	31%	9%	97	+1.1	243/312/420	177	306	20	9	26%	7%	106	+1.8	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Bryan Ramos 2024 · AA	22	42	50	44→50	43	221/284/370	149	272	19	5	27%	7%	84	+0.2	204/271/322	118	262	13	10	27%	7%	69	-0.9	190/263/293	103	246	11	12	27%	7%	56	-1.3
✕Michael Chavis 2018 · AA	22	41→46	53→60	47→45	36	216/264/387	171	283	21	4	32%	5%	81	-0.1	237/292/419	182	316	24	6	32%	6%	99	+1.2	237/296/422	185	318	26	5	33%	7%	100	+0.6
✕Alejandro Segovia 2013 · A	23	42→45	49→50	50→30	47	217/279/366	149	245	17	5	20%	6%	81	-0.1	220/296/364	144	265	16	3	23%	8%	87	+0.4	212/294/352	139	256	16	1	23%	8%	81	-0.0
●Mickey Gasper 2019 · A	23	41→51	50	47→45	53	214/294/366	152	238	19	4	20%	10%	87	+0.4	212/285/334	122	269	12	5	25%	7%	76	-0.4	244/334/397	153	276	17	6	18%	10%	107	+1.2
●Jonathon Long 2024 · A	22	44→54	54→45	49→40	44	232/304/405	174	289	22	7	28%	7%	100	+1.3	253/330/394	141	325	16	3	25%	9%	106	+1.8	257/335/390	133	331	14	2	25%	9%	104	+1.5
✕Miguel Amaya 2021 · A	22	43	46→50	48→40	47	217/290/349	133	270	14	4	25%	8%	82	-0.0	222/315/352	130	303	13	6	29%	9%	92	+0.7	216/325/362	146	296	16	3	30%	10%	98	+0.3
●Derek Norris 2012 · AA	23	39→49	53→55	47→50	53	204/313/377	173	277	21	10	32%	12%	97	+1.1	230/312/390	160	287	19	10	25%	10%	99	+1.3	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
✕Jonny DeLuca 2022 · A	24	40→37	53→60	56→55	45	215/274/388	172	252	21	15	24%	7%	84	+0.2	225/290/408	183	256	22	16	22%	7%	95	+1.0	223/291/402	179	250	21	19	20%	7%	93	+0.5
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	53→55	45→40	38	228/270/395	166	287	21	7	29%	5%	84	+0.2	235/289/374	139	337	16	5	33%	6%	86	+0.3	251/343/392	142	332	17	1	27%	10%	112	+1.0
✕Jace Jung 2024 · AA	23	43→44	52→50	48→40	48	220/300/383	163	290	20	5	30%	9%	93	+0.8	216/304/368	152	282	17	4	28%	11%	91	+0.7	205/299/350	146	260	16	3	27%	11%	84	+0.1
✕John Mayberry Jr. 2007 · A	23	42→48	49→55	49→50	43	214/279/364	150	282	17	7	30%	7%	81	-0.1	207/261/376	169	259	21	9	28%	6%	77	-0.3	240/295/408	167	283	19	7	22%	7%	98	+0.8
✕Renato Núñez 2016 · AA	22	43→53	52→60	47→30	39	227/269/386	159	274	21	3	26%	4%	82	+0.0	217/266/387	170	268	23	3	28%	5%	82	-0.0	246/311/421	175	298	23	1	25%	7%	106	+1.3

JP Smith II

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps