JP Smith II — OGILVIE

JP Smith II3B Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 240 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION256 act + 170 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.179 / .267 / .305

PA170

HR5

K%28

BB%9

BABIP221

ISO126

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 36 / POW 53

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT36

scouting grade only

POWER53

scouting grade only

EYE59

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	95	16	1	1	2	5	36	1	1	0	168	218	263	481	95	246	36	5	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	93	22	2	1	2	7	25	1	1	0	237	297	344	641	108	303	25	7	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	MIN	—	256	217	39	5	0	9	28	77	3	4	1	180	282	327	609	147	216	30	11	270	65	-10	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.2
YTD	21	A	MIN	—	256	207	45	6	0	10	38	54	3	4	1	217	347	391	738	174	232	21	15	326	108	+2	+0	+0	+1	+7	1.1
ROS	21	A	MIN	0%	170	150	27	4	0	5	16	47	2	3	1	179	267	305	572	126	221	28	9	263	59	-8	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.2
ROS	21	MLB	MIN	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		221	—	—	256	54	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	MIN	—	256	218	39	5	0	9	28	77	3	4	1	179	282	326	608	147	214	30	11	270	65	-10	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.2
TOT	21	A	MIN	—	426	367	66	9	0	14	44	124	5	7	2	180	276	318	594	139	218	29	10	267	63	-18	+1	+0	+2	+12	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	MIN	34%	352	312	59	10	1	11	33	95	4	5	1	189	275	333	608	144	230	27	9	273	67	-13	+1	+0	+1	+10	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	MIN	48%	426	378	74	12	1	14	40	113	5	6	1	196	281	344	625	148	236	27	9	280	73	-13	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.1
2029	24	MLB	MIN	53%	471	419	84	14	2	15	44	123	5	6	2	200	284	351	635	150	240	26	9	285	76	-13	+0	+0	+2	+13	0.3
2030	25	MLB	MIN	55%	491	437	88	15	2	16	46	127	5	6	2	201	285	355	640	153	241	26	9	287	78	-12	+0	+0	+2	+14	0.4
2031	26	MLB	MIN	56%	501	444	90	15	2	17	47	130	5	7	2	203	286	360	647	158	241	26	9	288	78	-12	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.4
2032	27	MLB	MIN	55%	500	443	90	15	2	17	48	130	5	7	2	203	288	361	649	158	241	26	10	288	78	-12	+1	+0	+2	+14	0.4
2027	22	MLB	MIN	34%	121	108	20	3	0	4	11	33	1	2	0	185	267	324	591	139	230	27	9	266	62	-5	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	MIN	48%	206	183	37	6	1	7	19	54	2	3	1	202	284	361	645	158	236	26	9	273	67	-8	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.1
2029	24	MLB	MIN	53%	248	220	44	7	1	8	23	65	3	3	1	200	285	350	635	150	240	26	9	277	70	-8	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.0
2030	25	MLB	MIN	55%	269	239	48	8	1	9	25	70	3	4	1	201	285	356	640	155	241	26	9	280	72	-8	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.1
2031	26	MLB	MIN	56%	279	248	49	8	1	9	26	72	3	4	1	198	282	347	628	149	241	26	9	280	72	-9	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.1
2032	27	MLB	MIN	55%	275	244	49	8	1	9	26	72	3	4	1	201	286	352	638	152	241	26	9	280	73	-9	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1398	1243	247	40	5	46	130	366	15	20	5	199	283	350	633	151	240	26	9	277	70	-47	+2	+0	+5	+40	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	115	19	2	21	60	170	7	9	2	199	282	348	630	149	241	26	9	277	70	-22	+1	+0	+2	+18	-0.0
Career	—			—	3012	2678	528	86	11	97	279	801	32	41	11	197	281	346	627	149	240	27	9	281	73	-92	+4	+0	+11	+85	0.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	114	19	2	21	60	173	7	9	2	197	281	346	627	149	240	27	9	281	73	-20	+1	+0	+2	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	93	22	2	1	2	7	25	1	1	0	237	297	344	641	108	303	25	7	291	81	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,578	50	21	198	278	347	+6	+2	0.5	0.7
	/162	664	21	9	198	278	347	+2.4	+0.8	0.2	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
JP Smith II (OGILVIE)	21	31→36	48→53	45→50	59	180/276/318	139	218	14	7	29%	10%	63	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Padlo 2017 · A	21	37→40	46→55	46→50	47	187/275/320	133	269	13	9	34%	10%	66	-0.6	187/271/328	141	273	14	8	34%	9%	66	-0.6	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	46→55	52→50	39	205/249/339	134	269	14	14	29%	5%	59	-1.1	183/230/341	158	264	20	4	38%	5%	52	-1.6	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Luis Hidalgo 2017 · A	21	37	44→45	47→45	43	190/252/303	113	229	13	12	24%	6%	51	-1.7	224/274/348	124	267	13	8	21%	5%	72	-0.2	259/302/380	121	288	12	8	14%	4%	89	+0.4
✕Brayan Buelvas 2023 · A	21	35→40	46→50	50→55	39	186/245/315	128	247	14	13	30%	6%	51	-1.7	189/251/309	120	275	12	18	34%	7%	52	-1.6	182/244/294	112	275	11	14	36%	7%	42	-1.3
✕Yassel Pino 2023 · A	21	39	47→50	46→40	46	199/275/332	133	277	15	7	33%	9%	68	-0.5	196/260/304	108	263	11	6	28%	7%	55	-1.4	180/245/278	98	234	10	5	27%	7%	39	-1.1
✕Jabari Henry 2013 · A	22	42→40	46→55	49→45	44	211/272/346	135	274	13	6	28%	7%	70	-0.3	203/283/350	147	273	16	6	30%	9%	76	+0.1	186/275/344	157	252	18	6	32%	10%	68	-0.3
✕Jeter Downs 2018 · A	20	42→40	43→50	47→55	47	208/276/316	107	257	11	9	23%	7%	64	-0.8	211/277/355	144	271	15	17	27%	7%	75	-0.0	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Sherten Apostel 2020 · A	21	37→32	46→45	45→40	44	190/265/313	123	268	14	4	33%	8%	59	-1.1	202/264/327	125	311	14	4	37%	7%	63	-0.9	207/265/346	139	315	16	0	38%	6%	65	-0.3
✕Juan Mora 2021 · A	21	43	42→45	53→55	49	209/289/317	108	255	9	14	21%	8%	71	-0.3	228/292/345	117	310	10	10	28%	6%	79	+0.3	224/280/333	110	298	10	8	27%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Jose Medina 2008 · A	21	42	44→45	45→50	46	208/284/326	117	271	12	10	27%	8%	71	-0.3	206/282/321	115	291	11	8	31%	8%	69	-0.4	181/269/305	124	250	11	4	30%	6%	59	-0.2
✕Bryan Ramos 2022 · A	20	39→43	45→50	49→50	40	199/265/323	124	270	13	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	211/270/351	140	268	18	5	28%	6%	72	-0.2	205/264/342	137	255	19	5	27%	6%	63	-0.6
●Jerry Sands 2009 · A	21	35→45	50→60	51→45	45	191/275/338	147	260	19	8	33%	9%	71	-0.3	228/294/419	191	283	24	6	28%	8%	99	+1.7	225/292/420	195	273	25	7	27%	8%	97	+1.3
✕Mitch Einertson 2007 · A	21	37→47	43→50	45	42	187/245/293	107	236	11	5	26%	6%	46	-2.0	224/267/350	126	279	12	5	24%	5%	69	-0.4	233/275/363	130	287	13	5	23%	4%	73	-0.1
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2021 · A	20	41→40	44→55	47→45	41	205/267/321	116	274	12	7	29%	6%	62	-0.9	215/265/384	169	280	22	5	31%	5%	78	+0.2	194/257/378	183	244	25	1	32%	6%	70	-0.3
●Cody Freeman 2023 · A	22	40→50	42→50	47→50	46	200/263/300	99	240	11	9	22%	6%	54	-1.4	218/266/352	134	258	15	9	21%	5%	69	-0.4	233/276/386	153	263	18	9	19%	5%	80	+0.3
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	36→34	45→50	54→50	37	187/249/310	124	268	12	13	34%	6%	52	-1.6	201/258/355	154	293	19	14	37%	6%	68	-0.5	192/251/359	168	278	23	15	39%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	39	187/256/305	118	276	12	9	35%	7%	54	-1.4	197/279/292	95	352	7	8	42%	9%	60	-1.0	146/272/221	75	359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
✕Yu Chang 2017 · A	21	40→46	45→50	49→45	37	203/253/331	128	288	12	8	33%	5%	59	-1.1	203/261/346	143	284	16	8	33%	6%	66	-0.6	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Rodolfo Castro 2021 · A	22	37→40	47→55	46→50	35	194/234/331	137	275	15	6	35%	5%	50	-1.7	211/266/374	163	279	20	8	31%	6%	76	+0.0	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
●Aristides Aquino 2015 · A	21	37→40	47→65	50	34	194/233/333	139	262	14	11	32%	4%	50	-1.7	197/235/330	133	267	14	9	31%	4%	50	-1.7	216/277/454	238	250	36	8	31%	7%	97	+1.0