JP Smith II — OGILVIE

JP Smith II1B Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 21 R/R 6'2" / 240 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION443 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP224

ISO155

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$4M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 41 / POW 58

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT41

scouting grade only

POWER58

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED51

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	20	A	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	93	22	2	1	2	7	25	1	1	0	237	297	344	641	108	303	25	7	291	83	-2	+0	—	—	+2	0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	95	18	2	1	2	5	36	1	1	0	189	238	295	532	105	257	36	5	214	31	-8	+0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	95	18	2	1	2	5	36	1	1	0	189	238	295	532	105	281	36	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A RAW	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	93	22	2	1	2	7	25	1	1	0	237	297	344	641	108	303	25	7	291	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	94	18	2	1	2	5	36	1	1	0	191	238	298	535	106	257	36	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	—	101	94	18	2	1	2	5	36	1	1	0	191	238	298	535	106	257	36	5	214	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A MLE	MIN	—	443	376	73	10	0	19	51	123	6	8	2	194	300	372	673	178	221	28	12	293	84	-8	+1	+0	-8	+10	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A RAW	MIN	—	319	258	57	8	0	15	47	64	5	6	1	221	352	426	778	205	223	20	15	341	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	21	A+ RAW	MIN	—	124	100	27	3	0	7	22	24	1	2	1	270	407	510	917	240	286	19	18	402	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	21	A MLE	MIN	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		223	30	10	290	82	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	21	A MLE	MIN	—	453	385	74	10	0	19	52	126	6	8	2	192	298	366	664	174	220	28	11	293	84	-8	+1	+0	-8	+10	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIN	34%	363	319	64	10	1	14	37	92	4	5	1	201	292	370	662	169	232	25	10	298	88	-5	+1	+0	-6	+8	-0.3
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIN	48%	517	453	93	15	1	20	53	128	6	7	2	205	297	375	672	170	238	25	10	304	92	-5	+1	+0	-9	+11	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	544	476	100	16	1	22	56	133	7	7	2	210	302	387	689	176	242	24	10	308	95	-3	+1	+0	-10	+12	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	543	475	101	16	2	22	56	132	7	7	2	213	305	394	699	181	243	24	10	310	96	-2	+1	+0	-10	+12	0.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	MIN	56%	539	471	100	16	1	22	56	131	7	7	2	212	305	391	696	178	243	24	10	311	97	-2	+1	+0	-10	+12	0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	532	465	99	16	1	22	55	130	7	7	2	213	306	394	699	181	242	24	10	311	97	-2	+1	+0	-10	+12	0.1
2033	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	524	458	97	16	1	21	55	128	6	7	2	212	304	389	693	177	242	24	10	310	96	-3	+1	-1	-9	+11	-0.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	515	450	95	15	1	21	54	127	6	6	2	211	304	389	693	178	241	25	10	308	95	-3	+0	-1	-9	+11	-0.2
2035	30	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	506	441	92	15	1	20	54	126	6	5	1	209	303	383	687	175	239	25	11	305	93	-4	+1	-2	-9	+11	-0.4
2036	31	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	496	435	89	14	1	19	52	125	6	5	1	205	298	372	671	168	236	25	10	301	90	-6	+1	-3	-9	+11	-0.6
2037	32	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	442	387	78	12	1	17	47	113	5	3	1	202	296	370	666	168	233	26	11	295	86	-7	+0	-4	-8	+10	-0.9
2038	33	MLB MLE	MIN	52%	413	362	70	10	1	15	43	108	5	2	1	193	288	351	639	157	228	26	10	288	81	-9	+0	-4	-7	+9	-1.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIN	34%	125	109	21	3	0	5	13	32	2	2	0	193	290	358	648	165	232	26	10	290	88	-2	+0	+0	-2	+3	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIN	48%	251	220	46	7	1	10	26	62	3	3	1	209	301	386	688	177	238	25	10	296	92	-2	+0	+0	-4	+5	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	287	253	54	9	1	12	29	70	3	4	1	213	302	399	701	186	242	24	10	300	95	-2	+0	+0	-5	+6	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	297	261	56	9	1	12	30	72	4	4	1	215	305	395	700	180	243	24	10	302	96	-1	+0	+0	-5	+6	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	MIN	56%	300	262	56	9	1	12	31	73	4	4	1	214	306	393	700	179	243	24	10	302	97	-1	+0	+0	-5	+6	0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	293	256	55	9	1	12	31	71	4	4	1	215	309	398	708	184	243	24	11	303	97	-1	+0	+0	-5	+6	0.0
2033	28	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	286	251	54	9	1	12	30	70	3	4	1	215	306	402	709	187	242	24	10	302	96	-1	+0	-0	-5	+6	-0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	275	241	51	8	1	11	29	68	3	3	1	212	304	390	694	178	241	25	11	300	95	-2	+0	-1	-5	+6	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	266	233	50	8	1	11	28	66	3	3	1	215	307	399	706	185	239	25	11	297	93	-2	+0	-1	-5	+6	-0.2
2036	31	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	258	226	45	7	0	10	27	65	3	2	1	199	293	363	656	164	236	25	10	293	90	-3	+0	-1	-5	+6	-0.4
2037	32	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	229	200	40	6	0	9	24	59	3	2	0	200	295	365	660	165	233	26	10	287	86	-4	+0	-2	-4	+5	-0.4
2038	33	MLB CTX	MIN	52%	213	187	36	5	0	8	22	56	2	1	0	193	284	348	632	155	229	26	10	281	81	-5	+0	-2	-4	+5	-0.6
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3080	2699	564	89	8	124	320	764	37	36	9	209	301	386	687	177	241	25	10	297	91	-27	+4	-8	-55	+67	-1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	570	119	19	2	26	68	161	8	8	2	209	302	386	688	177	241	25	10	297	91	-6	+1	-2	-12	+14	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	6045	5296	1097	173	14	237	624	1512	73	69	19	207	299	379	679	172	240	25	10	303	91	-53	+6	-15	-106	+129	-4.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	118	19	2	25	67	163	8	7	2	207	299	380	679	172	242	25	10	303	91	-6	+1	-2	-12	+14	-0.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rougned Odorlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,424 PA	6.7	4,424	178	70	230	288	422	+16	+32	15.2	15.0
/162	664	27	11	+2.4	+4.9	2.3	pk7: 15
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	5.3	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
/162	664	21	2	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Maikel Francolast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,573 PA	5.4	3,573	130	5	244	293	414	+13	-5	9.3	9.6
/162	664	24	1	+2.4	-1.0	1.7	pk7: 10
#5Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.9	3,266	128	38	208	297	381	+8	+4	7.3	6.4
/162	664	26	8	+1.6	+0.7	1.5	pk7: 6
#6Ian Stewartlast yr '14 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,646 PA	2.5	1,646	60	17	230	317	416	+6	+2	6.2	6.2
/162	664	24	7	+2.4	+0.9	2.5	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
JP Smith II (OGILVIE)	21	36→41	53→58	46→51	62	191/285/353	162	223	7	3	26%	10%	82	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jerry Sands 2009 · A	21	35→45	50→60	51→45	45	191/275/338	147	260	19	8	33%	9%	74	-0.5	230/295/419	189	285	24	6	28%	8%	100	+1.3	230/295/426	197	277	25	7	26%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Eric Campbell 2008 · A	22	41→49	53→55	48→50	43	221/267/387	166	247	21	10	21%	5%	82	-0.0	218/275/352	134	248	16	5	19%	6%	76	-0.4	227/289/374	147	255	18	3	18%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Aderlin Rodríguez 2013 · A	21	39→48	50→55	47→30	39	209/245/358	149	250	19	3	26%	4%	67	-1.1	209/244/337	128	265	14	3	26%	4%	61	-1.5	238/283/415	178	287	23	1	26%	4%	92	+0.5
✕Miguel Amaya 2021 · A	22	42→41	46→50	48→40	46	211/282/339	129	262	14	4	25%	7%	77	-0.3	219/310/346	127	298	13	6	29%	9%	89	+0.5	212/319/354	142	290	16	3	30%	10%	93	+0.3
✕Renato Núñez 2015 · A	21	40→50	50→60	47→30	37	212/255/361	149	272	19	3	30%	4%	72	-0.7	209/252/370	161	254	22	3	27%	5%	72	-0.7	229/300/429	200	270	28	1	26%	7%	102	+1.0
✕Abimelec Ortiz 2022 · A	20	38→40	54→55	50→40	51	205/308/389	184	250	22	8	27%	10%	98	+1.2	204/267/371	167	284	22	5	35%	7%	78	-0.3	209/275/391	181	265	24	2	30%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Aaron Luna 2009 · A	22	42→45	50	51→45	45	210/316/367	157	290	18	7	32%	8%	97	+1.1	216/320/366	150	270	16	7	25%	8%	98	+1.2	214/321/360	146	266	16	7	24%	8%	95	+0.6
●Sean Rodríguez 2006 · A	21	43→49	45→60	49→50	52	213/296/343	130	256	12	15	22%	10%	82	+0.0	230/299/393	163	295	19	11	27%	7%	95	+1.0	234/307/425	191	291	23	12	27%	7%	102	+1.1
✕Brandon Laird 2009 · A	21	44→48	52→50	48→30	41	229/271/395	165	266	20	2	23%	5%	85	+0.2	232/273/375	143	276	17	2	22%	5%	80	-0.1	231/269/366	135	272	16	1	22%	4%	75	-0.4
✕Coby Mayo 2023 · AA	21	42→45	50→60	51→45	41	217/278/369	152	291	18	8	31%	7%	82	-0.0	222/298/396	174	297	20	5	30%	9%	95	+1.0	216/298/397	181	285	21	4	30%	9%	93	+0.7
✕Josh Phegley 2010 · A	22	39→47	48→55	45→40	39	205/248/343	138	248	17	5	26%	4%	64	-1.3	219/257/327	108	276	11	3	24%	4%	63	-1.3	233/282/414	181	263	20	0	20%	5%	92	+0.4
✕Nicky Delmonico 2013 · A	21	41→47	47→50	50→45	46	212/280/346	134	259	15	8	25%	8%	77	-0.3	208/273/343	135	283	14	7	30%	7%	74	-0.6	230/299/381	151	284	16	4	24%	8%	89	+0.4
✕Bryan Ramos 2023 · AA	21	41→42	48→50	46→50	42	215/273/353	138	264	17	5	26%	6%	76	-0.4	205/268/332	127	260	15	8	27%	6%	70	-0.9	188/256/303	116	239	14	10	27%	7%	56	-1.3
✕Chris Williams 2019 · A	22	38→32	53→55	47→40	47	207/281/370	163	255	22	4	29%	9%	84	+0.1	181/271/318	137	279	15	4	37%	11%	68	-1.0	176/260/345	169	249	23	4	38%	9%	68	-0.7
✕Noelvi Marte 2023 · A	21	44→53	48→50	49→55	46	223/293/360	136	290	16	16	28%	8%	85	+0.2	236/289/364	128	302	14	19	25%	6%	84	+0.1	242/290/375	133	303	14	21	24%	5%	85	+0.1
✕Luis Jimenez 2010 · A	22	44→48	50→60	51→50	39	227/258/388	161	258	17	8	20%	3%	78	-0.3	237/269/396	159	269	15	13	18%	3%	84	+0.2	239/270/398	159	267	16	15	17%	3%	83	+0.1
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2019 · A	21	46→44	48→50	44→45	43	236/278/376	139	271	17	6	20%	5%	83	+0.1	227/264/362	135	271	15	6	22%	4%	74	-0.5	213/259/361	148	250	19	1	23%	4%	71	-0.6
✕Trent D'Antonio 2007 · A	21	42	52→55	46→45	44	223/273/387	165	249	21	9	21%	6%	84	+0.1	230/295/330	100	301	9	11	25%	8%	78	-0.3	246/328/276	30	343	0	15	25%	10%	75	-0.2
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	42→49	47→60	48→50	44	214/273/351	137	280	14	13	28%	7%	75	-0.5	224/270/363	139	299	14	12	28%	6%	76	-0.4	219/286/408	189	272	25	8	29%	8%	91	+0.4
●Ronny Simon 2022 · A	22	40→50	49→50	53→60	43	206/265/356	150	272	16	14	30%	7%	74	-0.6	220/270/357	137	283	15	22	27%	6%	75	-0.5	266/329/370	104	332	7	30	21%	8%	98	+0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps