Rubender Pena

P FCL Rays

Age 22 RHP 5'10" / 183 lbs ROK peak 0.6 · 2030

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKDSL Tampa Bay	11	10	50	3.04	3.12	22.0%	12.7%	—	K 14.9% · BB 15.9% · FIP 4.24
2026	21	ROKTB	7	5	21	4.64	4.08	22.6%	8.6%	—	K 15.4% · BB 10.8% · FIP 5.64
2027PROJ	22	MLBTB	9	9	45	5.73	5.73	15.3%	15.2%	-0.4
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTB	4	4	23	5.46	5.37	17.2%	13.7%	-0.1
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBTB	6	6	34	5.24	5.15	18.2%	12.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff35Control30Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsRyan Harvey (age 22) · Rubén Menes (age 22) · Luis Mateo (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.73

FIP5.73

K%15.3%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%0.1%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	13	10	51	233	45	19	1	77%	3.9	13.1%	10.2%	2.9%	0.6%	4.91	3.62	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	13	10	51	233	45	19	1	77%	3.9	13.1%	10.2%	2.9%	0.6%	4.91	3.62	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	13	10	51	233	45	19	1	77%	3.9	19.3%	8.2%	11.2%	0.4%	4.91	2.71	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	10	50	205	45	26	1	91%	4.6	14.9%	15.9%	-0.9%	0.7%	3.04	4.24	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	11	10	50	205	45	26	1	91%	4.6	14.9%	15.9%	-0.9%	0.7%	3.04	4.24	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	11	10	50	205	45	26	1	91%	4.6	22.0%	12.7%	9.3%	0.5%	3.04	3.12	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	7	5	21	93	21	8	3	71%	3.0	15.4%	10.8%	4.6%	4.5%	4.64	5.64	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	7	5	21	93	21	8	3	71%	3.0	15.4%	10.8%	4.6%	4.5%	4.64	5.64	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	7	5	21	93	21	8	3	71%	3.0	22.6%	8.6%	14.0%	3.2%	4.64	4.08	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TB	9	9	45	190	29	29	6	100%	5.0	15.3%	15.2%	0.1%	3.0%	5.73	5.73	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	47	198	34	27	6	100%	5.2	17.2%	13.7%	3.4%	2.9%	5.46	5.37	-0.2
2029	24	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	48	204	37	26	6	100%	5.4	18.2%	12.8%	5.4%	2.9%	5.24	5.15	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	49	206	39	25	6	100%	6.1	18.9%	12.3%	6.6%	2.9%	5.09	5.02	-0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	49	206	40	25	6	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.9%	5.02	4.98	-0.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	48	203	39	25	6	100%	6.0	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	2.9%	5.02	5.02	-0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	23	97	17	13	3	100%	5.8	17.2%	13.7%	3.4%	2.9%	5.46	5.37	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	TB	6	6	34	144	26	18	4	100%	5.7	18.2%	12.8%	5.4%	2.9%	5.24	5.15	-0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	40	169	32	21	5	100%	5.7	18.9%	12.3%	6.6%	2.9%	5.09	5.02	-0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	43	182	35	22	5	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.2%	7.0%	2.9%	5.02	4.98	-0.0
2032	27	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	43	182	35	22	5	100%	6.1	19.2%	12.3%	6.9%	2.9%	5.02	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	182	770	144	97	22	100%	5.9	18.7%	12.5%	6.1%	2.9%	5.13	4.70	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	158	106	24	100%	5.8	18.7%	12.5%	6.1%	2.9%	5.13	4.70	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		31	25	123	531	75	66	7	81%	4.0	14.2%	12.5%	1.7%	1.3%	4.10	4.21	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		50	41	200	863	123	108	12	81%	4.0	14.2%	12.5%	1.7%	1.3%	4.10	4.21	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rubender Pena (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.73	15.3%	15.2%	3.0%	—	5.18	18.1%	5.2%	144	-0.55	—	—	—
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	86
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	86
Luis Mateo R 2015 · 5.17 FIP	22	SP-	5.17	11.4%	14.7%	2.1%	.315	5.67	15.0%	-1.3%	55	+0.50	4.52	112	86
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	85
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	85
Camilo Sanchez R 2024 · 5.26 FIP	21	SP-	5.26	15.2%	14.0%	3.1%	.289	7.17	13.8%	-0.2%	19	+1.91	3.57	117	84
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	83
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	82
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	82
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	82
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	81
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	81
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	81
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	81
Edelvis Perez R 2024 · 5.19 FIP	19	SP	5.19	11.9%	13.8%	2.4%	.267	5.56	17.9%	-1.9%	62	+0.37	5.19	103	81
Jurgen Jimenez R 2018 · 5.25 FIP	22	SP-	5.25	11.5%	13.3%	2.6%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	158	81
Tom Robson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	22	SP	4.89	12.6%	13.4%	2.1%	.337	4.89	12.5%	-1.3%	105	-0.00	3.23	132	81
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	81
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	48	18.0%	13.0%	1.12	5.25
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*