Jorge Guzman

P DSL Phillies White

Age 20 LHP 6'1" / 170 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	17	ROKDSL Phillies …	13	0	25	7.20	3.74	26.1%	10.9%	—	K 17.7% · BB 13.7% · FIP 5.72
2025	18	ROKDSL Phillies …	11	7	36	3.03	3.38	21.3%	10.7%	—	K 14.5% · BB 13.3% · FIP 4.78
2027PROJ	20	MLB—	19	0	20	4.86	4.86	21.1%	12.0%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLB—	16	0	17	4.70	4.64	21.8%	10.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsMatt Osterberg (age 22) · Alex Ayala Jr. (age 20) · Felix Doubront (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.86

FIP4.86

K%21.1%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	13	0	25	119	31	13	3	0%	1.9	17.7%	13.7%	4.1%	4.3%	7.20	5.72	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	13	0	25	119	31	13	3	0%	1.9	17.7%	13.7%	4.1%	4.3%	7.20	5.72	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	13	0	25	119	31	13	3	0%	1.9	26.1%	10.9%	15.1%	2.5%	7.20	3.74	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	7	36	150	32	16	2	64%	3.2	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.2%	3.03	4.78	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	7	36	150	32	16	2	64%	3.2	14.5%	13.3%	1.2%	2.2%	3.03	4.78	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	11	7	36	150	32	16	2	64%	3.2	21.3%	10.7%	10.7%	1.3%	3.03	3.38	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	—	19	0	20	84	18	10	3	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.0%	9.1%	3.0%	4.86	4.86	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	—	32	0	34	142	31	16	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.64	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	—	16	0	17	72	16	8	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	70	15	8	2	0%	1.0	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.26	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	181	97	24	0%	1.1	21.8%	10.9%	10.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		24	7	61	269	43	36	8	29%	2.5	15.9%	13.5%	2.4%	3.2%	4.75	5.19	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		79	23	200	887	141	120	28	29%	2.5	15.9%	13.5%	2.4%	3.2%	4.75	5.19	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jorge Guzman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	21.1%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.64	21.8%	10.8%	34	-0.22	—	—	—
Matt Osterberg L 2021 · 3.88 FIP	22	SW	3.88	20.2%	12.3%	1.7%	.255	4.04	15.6%	9.3%	274	+0.16	3.70	294	83
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	20	SW	4.20	20.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.271	5.99	13.6%	-3.1%	71	+1.79	4.20	128	80
Felix Doubront L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	20.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.312	4.02	21.6%	11.6%	323	+0.02	3.44	719	80
Harry Gustin L 2024 · 3.91 FIP	22	SU	3.91	20.7%	11.0%	2.1%	.331	4.33	22.9%	12.7%	109	+0.42	3.70	152	79
Lucas Knowles L 2021 · 3.90 FIP	23	SW	3.90	20.5%	12.9%	1.6%	.366	4.22	18.5%	9.4%	177	+0.32	3.37	308	79
Taylor Hearn L 2016 · 3.99 FIP	21	SW	3.99	26.1%	10.6%	3.2%	.347	4.01	22.3%	11.7%	236	+0.02	3.72	572	79
Francisco Villegas L 2017 · 4.55 FIP	19	SW	4.55	17.0%	8.1%	3.4%	.256	5.85	17.9%	3.1%	59	+1.30	4.55	131	78
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	78
Steven Pérez L 2021 · 5.07 FIP	20	SW	5.07	18.3%	11.4%	3.8%	.305	4.81	20.2%	5.6%	116	-0.26	3.71	358	76
Dante Biasi L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SW	4.91	21.5%	12.6%	3.7%	.251	5.70	19.3%	2.3%	153	+0.79	4.91	224	76
Josh Simpson L 2021 · 4.57 FIP	23	SW	4.57	23.5%	11.5%	3.6%	.290	3.26	33.2%	19.8%	102	-1.31	2.95	256	76
Brayan Restituyo L 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.397	4.46	18.4%	6.3%	144	-0.35	3.66	239	76
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	76
Victor Cabreja L 2022 · 3.79 FIP	20	SW	3.79	17.0%	13.0%	0.9%	.348	4.42	11.2%	1.7%	146	+0.63	3.79	254	75
Josh Hendrickson L 2019 · 3.80 FIP	21	SW	3.80	21.8%	6.7%	3.1%	.250	4.67	19.3%	10.9%	110	+0.87	3.80	368	75
Drew Harrington L 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SU	4.18	15.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.295	4.14	12.5%	5.4%	175	-0.04	3.17	190	74
Ivan Andueza L 2015 · 3.80 FIP	20	SW	3.80	15.0%	9.4%	1.4%	.304	4.44	11.8%	0.2%	104	+0.64	3.80	151	74
Rovaldis Cabrera L 2019 · 5.41 FIP	19	SW	5.41	16.0%	10.1%	4.3%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.72	127	74
Jordi Martinez L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	19	SW	4.73	17.7%	12.5%	2.8%	.258	4.17	16.6%	7.5%	104	-0.56	3.15	205	73
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	21.5%	11.3%	1.14	4.76
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68