Liam Paddack

P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	ACWS	33	0	44	4.50	3.05	27.2%	17.8%	—	K 20.1% · BB 21.0% · FIP 4.06
2026	23	MIX2 levels	38	6	77	4.56	3.04	33.2%	15.3%	—	K 26.2% · BB 17.1% · FIP 4.07
2027PROJ	24	MLBCWS	64	0	67	5.32	5.32	24.5%	20.0%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBCWS	29	0	30	5.08	4.99	24.7%	17.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBCWS	45	0	47	4.96	4.92	24.8%	16.8%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control20Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

CompsCarlos Rey (age 22) · Caleb Frare (age 24) · Ty Madrigal (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118126vR 134

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%24.5%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%4.5%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	33	0	44	202	55	36	0	0%	1.3	20.1%	21.0%	-0.9%	0.0%	4.50	4.06	—
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	33	0	44	202	55	36	0	0%	1.3	20.1%	21.0%	-0.9%	0.0%	4.50	4.06	—
2025	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	33	0	44	202	55	36	0	0%	1.3	27.2%	17.8%	9.4%	0.0%	4.50	3.05	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	6	77	340	113	52	5	16%	2.0	26.2%	17.1%	9.0%	1.8%	4.56	4.07	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	6	77	340	113	52	5	16%	2.0	26.2%	17.1%	9.0%	1.8%	4.56	4.07	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	6	77	340	113	52	5	16%	2.0	33.2%	15.3%	17.9%	1.5%	4.56	3.04	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	CWS	64	0	67	283	69	57	7	0%	1.0	24.5%	20.0%	4.5%	2.5%	5.32	5.32	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	67	0	70	296	73	52	8	0%	1.0	24.7%	17.4%	7.3%	2.5%	5.08	4.99	-0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	67	0	70	296	74	50	8	0%	1.0	24.8%	16.8%	8.1%	2.6%	4.96	4.92	-0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	66	0	69	292	72	48	8	0%	1.0	24.8%	16.5%	8.3%	2.6%	4.93	4.93	-0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	64	0	67	283	70	47	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	16.5%	8.1%	2.7%	4.96	5.00	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	61	0	64	270	66	45	8	0%	1.0	24.4%	16.7%	7.7%	2.9%	5.06	5.13	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	29	0	30	127	31	22	3	0%	1.0	24.7%	17.4%	7.3%	2.5%	5.08	4.99	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	45	0	47	198	49	33	5	0%	1.0	24.8%	16.8%	8.1%	2.6%	4.96	4.92	-0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	50	0	53	224	55	37	6	0%	1.1	24.8%	16.5%	8.3%	2.6%	4.93	4.93	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	53	0	56	236	58	39	6	0%	1.1	24.6%	16.5%	8.1%	2.7%	4.96	5.00	-0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	53	0	56	236	58	39	7	0%	1.1	24.4%	16.7%	7.7%	2.9%	5.06	5.13	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		231	0	243	1024	252	171	28	0%	1.1	24.6%	16.7%	7.9%	2.7%	4.99	4.61	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	208	141	23	0%	1.1	24.6%	16.7%	7.9%	2.7%	4.99	4.61	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		71	6	121	542	130	101	6	8%	1.7	23.9%	18.6%	5.3%	1.2%	4.54	4.07	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	10	200	896	214	167	10	8%	1.7	23.9%	18.6%	5.3%	1.2%	4.54	4.07	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Paddack (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	24.5%	20.0%	2.5%	—	4.95	24.8%	7.9%	210	-0.37	—	—	—
Carlos Rey L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	22	SU	4.47	26.1%	22.0%	1.4%	.297	4.30	25.5%	5.4%	108	-0.17	3.90	165	85
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	83
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	82
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	82
Christian Chamberlain L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	26.7%	17.5%	2.2%	.238	3.91	20.7%	0.5%	43	-0.38	3.91	148	82
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	81
Renyel Pinto L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	26.7%	20.0%	2.2%	.246	4.42	21.2%	7.6%	185	-0.18	3.58	231	81
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	81
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	80
Jimmy Burnette L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	25.2%	16.3%	2.3%	.336	3.48	19.9%	5.1%	59	-0.81	3.00	158	78
Caleb Wurster L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	25.0%	16.1%	2.1%	.241	10.33	13.9%	-5.0%	11	+6.17	3.42	100	78
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	78
Brendan Cellucci L 2022 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	22.4%	17.9%	2.7%	.320	4.48	23.3%	7.7%	137	-0.47	3.98	288	78
Sam Selman L 2015 · 4.36 FIP	24	SU	4.36	20.9%	17.3%	1.5%	.346	3.30	26.1%	11.1%	128	-1.06	2.27	353	78
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	78
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	78
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	78
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	77
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	77
Bailey Horn L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	24.7%	15.6%	3.1%	.320	4.35	22.0%	11.5%	163	-0.36	3.90	265	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	68	24.6%	17.3%	1.02	5.05
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*