Liam Paddack — OGILVIE

Liam Paddack P Winston-Salem Dash

Age 23 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs A+

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133141vR 149

ERA6.10

FIP6.10

K%20.1%

BB%22.4%

K-BB%-2.3%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	33	0	44	202	55	36	0	0%	1.3	20.1%	21.0%	-0.9%	0.0%	4.50	4.06	—
2025	22	A MLE	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	33	0	44	202	55	36	0	0%	1.3	20.1%	21.0%	-0.9%	0.0%	4.50	4.06	—
2025	22	A RAW	Kannapolis Cannon Ballers	33	0	44	202	55	36	0	0%	1.3	27.2%	17.8%	9.4%	0.0%	4.50	3.05	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	37	6	76	335	112	51	5	16%	2.1	26.3%	17.1%	9.3%	1.9%	4.62	4.06	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	37	6	76	335	112	51	5	16%	2.1	26.3%	17.1%	9.3%	1.9%	4.62	4.06	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	CWS	13	6	42	182	63	22	5	46%	3.2	34.6%	12.1%	22.5%	2.7%	5.36	3.22	—
2026	23	AA RAW	CWS	24	0	34	153	49	29	0	0%	1.4	32.0%	19.0%	13.1%	0.0%	3.71	2.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CWS	73	0	76	322	68	62	9	0%	1.0	21.0%	19.1%	1.9%	2.7%	5.73	5.61	-0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	CWS	74	0	77	326	70	56	9	0%	1.0	21.6%	17.0%	4.5%	2.7%	5.43	5.30	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	CWS	74	0	77	326	71	54	9	0%	1.0	21.9%	16.6%	5.3%	2.7%	5.29	5.23	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	CWS	72	0	76	321	70	53	9	0%	1.1	21.9%	16.5%	5.4%	2.8%	5.25	5.24	-0.6
2031	28	MLB MLE	CWS	70	0	74	312	68	52	9	0%	1.1	21.8%	16.6%	5.1%	2.9%	5.30	5.33	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	CWS	67	0	70	298	64	50	9	0%	1.1	21.5%	16.9%	4.7%	3.0%	5.39	5.46	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CWS	63	0	66	280	59	48	9	0%	1.1	21.2%	17.2%	4.0%	3.2%	5.54	5.63	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	CWS	31	0	33	139	29	27	4	0%	1.1	21.0%	19.1%	1.9%	2.7%	5.73	5.61	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	CWS	49	0	51	215	46	37	6	0%	1.0	21.6%	17.0%	4.5%	2.7%	5.43	5.30	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	CWS	58	0	61	258	56	43	7	0%	1.1	21.9%	16.6%	5.3%	2.7%	5.29	5.23	-0.5
2030	27	MLB CTX	CWS	62	0	65	274	60	45	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	16.5%	5.4%	2.8%	5.25	5.24	-0.5
2031	28	MLB CTX	CWS	63	0	66	279	61	46	8	0%	1.0	21.8%	16.6%	5.1%	2.9%	5.30	5.33	-0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	CWS	61	0	64	270	58	46	8	0%	1.0	21.5%	16.9%	4.7%	3.0%	5.39	5.46	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	CWS	58	0	61	258	55	44	8	0%	1.1	21.2%	17.2%	4.0%	3.2%	5.54	5.63	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		382	0	401	1694	366	288	49	0%	1.1	21.6%	17.0%	4.6%	2.9%	5.39	5.00	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	144	24	0%	1.1	21.6%	17.0%	4.6%	2.9%	5.39	5.00	-1.1
Career	—	MLE		70	6	120	537	129	100	6	9%	1.7	24.0%	18.6%	5.4%	1.2%	4.58	4.06	-5.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		117	10	200	895	215	166	10	9%	1.7	24.0%	18.6%	5.4%	1.2%	4.58	4.06	-2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Liam Paddack (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.10	20.1%	22.4%	2.7%	—	5.38	21.5%	3.9%	231	-0.72	—	—	—
Nicolo Pinazzi L 2023 · 6.79 FIP	23	SU	6.79	19.3%	26.9%	3.5%	.307	2.58	30.1%	16.3%	62	-4.21	2.58	155	87
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	85
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	84
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	84
Julian Bosnic L 2023 · 5.72 FIP	23	SU	5.72	22.5%	21.0%	3.4%	.206	4.74	19.1%	-0.1%	90	-0.98	4.31	136	83
Austin Hamilton L 2017 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	17.0%	15.6%	2.3%	.329	4.20	16.3%	8.9%	109	-0.72	4.02	135	83
Bryan King L 2021 · 5.20 FIP	24	SU	5.20	17.4%	17.8%	2.4%	.317	2.86	24.0%	14.5%	77	-2.34	2.45	239	82
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	81
Jeff Belge L 2021 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	24.0%	18.8%	2.7%	.343	3.68	24.2%	10.4%	131	-1.23	3.30	175	81
Christian Chamberlain L 2022 · 6.42 FIP	23	SU	6.42	23.4%	21.7%	4.6%	.330	4.15	23.9%	5.2%	99	-2.27	3.91	148	81
José Manuel Fernández L 2016 · 6.16 FIP	23	SU	6.16	16.4%	19.7%	3.5%	.211	4.71	17.7%	6.4%	168	-1.45	3.35	263	81
Evan Shawver L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	23	SW	5.78	15.9%	16.5%	3.5%	.327	4.11	18.1%	7.1%	162	-1.67	3.92	278	80
Adrian Almeida L 2018 · 5.49 FIP	23	SU	5.49	19.1%	24.5%	1.6%	.223	5.10	19.9%	-4.6%	59	-0.39	4.27	188	80
Max Herrmann L 2017 · 5.09 FIP	24	SU	5.09	15.0%	17.9%	1.8%	.333	4.37	12.2%	0.8%	152	-0.72	3.93	168	79
Armando Vasquez L 2023 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	21.5%	18.0%	2.9%	.312	6.10	20.8%	2.7%	36	+0.95	4.22	131	79
Chris Reed L 2015 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.4%	14.5%	2.3%	.284	4.67	16.4%	6.6%	81	-0.25	4.67	137	79
Chris Nunn L 2015 · 5.49 FIP	24	SU	5.49	13.9%	16.8%	2.6%	.350	3.92	19.3%	6.7%	37	-1.57	3.30	180	79
Gerardo Concepción L 2015 · 5.40 FIP	23	SU	5.40	14.0%	18.5%	2.1%	.352	4.53	16.9%	6.5%	60	-0.87	4.53	104	79
Brayan Restituyo L 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SU	5.53	17.4%	17.3%	3.1%	.312	4.76	17.6%	5.6%	151	-0.77	3.66	239	79
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	71	21.4%	17.6%	1.10	5.48
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91