Liam Paddack
P
Winston-Salem Dash
Age 23
LHP
6'4" / 210 lbs
A+
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION50 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130139vR 149
ERA5.78
FIP5.78
K%20.1%
BB%19.9%
K-BB%0.2%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 103 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 33 | 0 | 44 | 202 | 55 | 36 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.1% | 21.0% | -0.9% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 4.06 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Kannapolis Cannon Ballers | 33 | 0 | 44 | 202 | 55 | 36 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.2% | 17.8% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 3.05 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 20 | 6 | 50 | 218 | 75 | 30 | 5 | 30% | 2.5 | 26.7% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 3.4% | 5.36 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CWS | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 45 | 44 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 19.9% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 5.78 | 5.78 | -0.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.1% | 19.9% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 5.78 | 5.78 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 103 | 439 | 120 | 74 | 11 | — | — | 27.2% | 16.9% | 10.4% | 2.5% | 5.58 | 5.15 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | CWS | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 20.1% | 19.9% | 0.2% | 2.7% | 5.78 | 5.40 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 48 | 39 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 17.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.48 | 5.37 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 50 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 15.6% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 5.23 | 5.12 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 50 | 35 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 15.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | CWS | 22 | 0 | 23 | 97 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 17.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 5.48 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | CWS | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 33 | 24 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 15.6% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 5.23 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | CWS | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 40 | 28 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 15.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 5.11 | 5.06 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 0 | 103 | 433 | 93 | 69 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.6% | 15.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 5.24 | 4.77 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 181 | 134 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 15.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 5.24 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
| Career | — | 53 | 6 | 94 | 420 | 99 | 73 | 7 | 11% | 1.8 | 23.5% | 17.3% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 4.96 | 4.29 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 112 | 13 | 200 | 890 | 209 | 154 | 16 | 11% | 1.8 | 23.5% | 17.3% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 4.96 | 4.29 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Liam Paddack (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.78 | 20.1% | 19.9% | 2.7% | — | 5.18 | 21.5% | 5.4% | 162 | -0.60 | — | — | — |
| Cole Reynolds L 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.81 | 16.4% | 16.2% | 1.9% | .304 | 5.26 | 17.3% | 0.4% | 52 | +0.45 | 4.81 | 108 | 86 |
| Nicolo Pinazzi L 2026 · 6.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.69 | 19.3% | 26.9% | 3.3% | .307 | 2.70 | 28.6% | 17.2% | 29 | -3.99 | 2.70 | 122 | 85 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 85 |
| Jackson Lancaster L 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.05 | 18.9% | 17.6% | 2.4% | .315 | 4.92 | 19.3% | 7.1% | 107 | -0.13 | 4.28 | 127 | 83 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.78 | 22.5% | 21.0% | 3.5% | .206 | 4.70 | 19.1% | -0.1% | 90 | -1.08 | 4.28 | 136 | 82 |
| Juan Pichardo L 2026 · 4.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.95 | 17.7% | 17.1% | 2.2% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.13 | 103 | 82 |
| Austin Hamilton L 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.92 | 17.0% | 15.6% | 2.3% | .329 | 4.18 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 109 | -0.74 | 4.06 | 135 | 82 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.03 | 24.0% | 18.8% | 2.9% | .343 | 3.76 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 131 | -1.27 | 3.27 | 175 | 82 |
| Bryan King L 2027 · 5.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.31 | 17.4% | 17.8% | 2.6% | .317 | 2.89 | 24.7% | 14.5% | 77 | -2.42 | 2.49 | 226 | 81 |
| Evan Shawver L 2026 · 5.70 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.70 | 15.9% | 16.5% | 3.4% | .327 | 4.09 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 142 | -1.61 | 4.01 | 258 | 81 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .248 | 6.50 | 13.1% | -1.8% | 52 | +1.87 | 4.63 | 101 | 81 |
| Gil Luna L 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.36 | 22.5% | 24.5% | 1.9% | .303 | 5.05 | 19.7% | -6.0% | 73 | -0.31 | 4.57 | 113 | 81 |
| Dillon Larsen L 2027 · 6.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.31 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.57 | 18.0% | -4.1% | 91 | -1.74 | 4.04 | 120 | 81 |
| Braeden Fausnaught L 2027 · 4.77 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.77 | 16.9% | 16.4% | 1.8% | .287 | 4.67 | 17.9% | 9.7% | 179 | -0.10 | 4.57 | 242 | 81 |
| Christian Chamberlain L 2026 · 6.50 FIP | 23 | SU | 6.50 | 23.4% | 21.7% | 4.8% | .330 | 4.26 | 24.3% | 4.8% | 99 | -2.24 | 3.91 | 148 | 81 |
| Triston Polley L 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.05 | 22.3% | 20.0% | 2.4% | .361 | 4.78 | 18.5% | 5.2% | 136 | -0.27 | 4.19 | 151 | 80 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.74 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 2.9% | .305 | 3.95 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -0.79 | 3.67 | 165 | 80 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2029 · 5.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 5.34 | 17.4% | 17.9% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.25 | 20.0% | 8.2% | 77 | -1.09 | 3.46 | 154 | 80 |
| Matt Minnick L 2026 · 5.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.59 | 17.2% | 14.1% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.65 | 23.5% | 12.1% | 105 | -0.94 | 3.77 | 147 | 79 |
| Colby Langford L 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.82 | 23.9% | 25.9% | 0.8% | .260 | 8.30 | 21.1% | -0.7% | 35 | +3.48 | 4.82 | 153 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 54 | 21.2% | 17.0% | 1.04 | 5.40 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |