Max Martin — OGILVIE

Max Martin P Asheville Tourists

Age 22 RHP 6'5" / 190 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.62

FIP4.62

K%20.8%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%10.8%

ROS IP38

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	7	26	6	1	0	0%	1.7	23.1%	3.8%	19.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.64	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	7	26	6	1	0	0%	1.7	23.1%	3.8%	19.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.64	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	Quad Cities River Bandits	4	0	7	26	6	1	0	0%	1.7	23.1%	3.8%	19.2%	0.0%	0.00	1.75	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	40	0	62	265	52	27	4	0%	1.6	15.3%	11.0%	4.3%	2.0%	3.05	4.29	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	40	0	62	265	52	27	4	0%	1.6	15.3%	11.0%	4.3%	2.0%	3.05	4.29	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	HOU	14	0	21	80	18	5	1	0%	1.5	22.5%	6.2%	16.2%	1.2%	2.57	2.68	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	HOU	24	0	39	173	33	19	3	0%	1.6	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	1.7%	3.23	3.83	—
2026	22	AA RAW	HOU	2	0	2	12	1	3	0	0%	1.0	8.3%	25.0%	-16.7%	0.0%	4.50	5.56	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	HOU	60	0	63	266	58	25	8	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.50	4.43	+0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	273	61	25	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	2.9%	4.39	4.31	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	276	63	24	8	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.31	4.25	+0.2
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	62	0	65	276	64	24	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.23	+0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	61	0	64	272	63	24	8	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.26	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	HOU	30	0	31	131	29	12	4	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.4%	12.4%	2.9%	4.50	4.43	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	43	0	45	190	43	17	6	0%	1.0	22.5%	9.0%	13.5%	2.9%	4.39	4.31	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	50	0	53	224	51	20	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.8%	14.1%	2.9%	4.31	4.25	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	54	0	57	241	56	21	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.8%	14.4%	2.9%	4.26	4.23	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55	0	58	245	57	22	7	0%	1.1	23.1%	8.8%	14.3%	2.9%	4.26	4.26	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		233	0	245	1033	235	92	30	0%	1.1	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	2.9%	4.33	3.90	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	75	25	0%	1.1	22.8%	8.9%	13.9%	2.9%	4.33	3.90	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		44	0	69	291	47	30	5	0%	1.6	16.0%	10.3%	5.7%	1.8%	2.75	4.06	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		128	0	200	848	136	88	15	0%	1.6	16.0%	10.3%	5.7%	1.8%	2.75	4.06	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Max Martin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	20.8%	10.0%	3.0%	—	4.33	22.4%	13.4%	193	-0.29	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	95
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	92
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	91
Aaron Holiday R 2022 · 4.81 FIP	22	SU	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.23	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.42	4.73	126	90
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	89
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	89
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	89
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	89
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	89
Matt Frawley R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	19.5%	10.0%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.25	139	89
RJ Petit R 2022 · 4.43 FIP	22	SU	4.43	20.3%	8.4%	3.6%	.270	3.44	22.2%	12.7%	177	-0.99	3.08	231	88
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	88
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	88
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Jose Geraldo R 2022 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	18.9%	9.9%	2.0%	.337	4.47	19.0%	9.9%	49	+0.62	3.14	154	88
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	88
Scott Williams R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	20.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.256	2.89	18.5%	11.2%	42	-1.88	2.89	119	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	60	22.5%	9.1%	1.13	4.37
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68