RJ Petit — OGILVIE

RJ Petit P Erie SeaWolves

Age 26 RHP 6'8" / 287 lbs AA peak 0.3 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.12

FIP4.12

K%24.4%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—35

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD4040

K†6060

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	6	1	8	34	8	3	1	17%	1.3	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.9%	7.04	3.85	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	6	1	8	34	8	3	1	17%	1.3	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.9%	7.04	3.88	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	0	54	233	62	17	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	8.4%	11.8%	3.6%	3.67	4.43	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	0	54	233	62	17	6	0%	1.1	26.6%	7.3%	19.3%	2.6%	3.67	3.19	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	57	253	56	18	6	2%	1.3	16.5%	8.0%	8.6%	2.9%	3.49	4.30	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	42	1	57	253	56	18	6	2%	1.3	16.5%	8.0%	8.6%	2.9%	3.49	4.30	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	42	1	57	253	56	18	6	2%	1.3	22.1%	7.1%	15.0%	2.4%	3.49	3.45	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	43	1	59	244	76	27	2	2%	1.4	25.2%	12.2%	13.1%	1.0%	3.68	3.08	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	43	1	59	244	76	27	2	2%	1.4	25.2%	12.2%	13.1%	1.0%	3.68	3.08	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	43	1	59	244	76	27	2	2%	1.4	31.1%	11.1%	20.1%	0.8%	3.68	2.33	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	66	268	79	22	4	4%	1.4	24.1%	8.3%	15.8%	1.8%	2.44	3.09	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	2	66	268	79	22	4	4%	1.4	24.1%	8.3%	15.8%	1.8%	2.44	3.09	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	2	66	268	79	22	4	4%	1.4	29.5%	8.2%	21.3%	1.5%	2.44	2.50	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	DET	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	24.4%	10.3%	14.0%	2.5%	4.12	4.12	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	DET	66	0	69	291	71	30	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.3%	14.0%	2.6%	4.16	4.18	+0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	DET	64	0	67	282	68	29	8	0%	1.0	24.1%	10.4%	13.7%	2.8%	4.23	4.27	+0.2
2029	29	MLB MLE	DET	61	0	64	270	64	28	8	0%	1.0	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.41	+0.1
2027	27	MLB CTX	DET	25	0	26	110	27	11	3	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.3%	14.0%	2.6%	4.16	4.18	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	DET	38	0	40	169	41	17	5	0%	1.1	24.1%	10.4%	13.7%	2.8%	4.23	4.27	+0.1
2029	29	MLB CTX	DET	43	0	45	190	45	20	6	0%	1.0	23.8%	10.5%	13.3%	2.9%	4.34	4.41	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	468	112	49	13	0%	1.0	24.0%	10.4%	13.6%	2.8%	4.26	3.93	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	202	88	23	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.4%	13.6%	2.8%	4.26	3.93	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		187	5	243	1032	223	95	24	3%	1.3	21.6%	9.2%	12.5%	2.3%	3.40	3.72	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		154	4	200	848	184	78	20	3%	1.3	21.6%	9.2%	12.5%	2.3%	3.40	3.72	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
RJ Petit (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	24.4%	10.3%	2.5%	—	4.28	24.0%	13.6%	200	+0.16	—	—	—
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	92
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	90
Seth Simmons R 2015 · 3.07 FIP	27	SU	3.07	23.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.277	4.87	16.6%	7.6%	175	+1.80	3.07	251	89
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	89
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	89
Blake Treinen R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	27	SU	3.10	23.2%	9.3%	1.4%	.314	2.62	26.4%	19.2%	223	-0.48	1.53	547	88
Blake Smith R 2015 · 3.17 FIP	27	SU	3.17	23.3%	10.5%	1.3%	.290	3.59	22.4%	13.8%	71	+0.42	3.17	124	88
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	88
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	87
Jeff Johnson R 2016 · 3.18 FIP	26	SU	3.18	21.9%	9.6%	1.3%	.284	3.69	23.6%	8.0%	55	+0.51	2.49	160	86
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	86
Simon Castro R 2015 · 3.28 FIP	27	SU	3.28	26.4%	8.5%	2.4%	.320	3.58	26.0%	17.6%	128	+0.30	3.01	185	86
Jeff Ames R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	26	SU	3.94	25.1%	13.4%	2.3%	.310	4.65	25.4%	10.8%	79	+0.71	3.85	272	86
Brad Boxberger R 2015 · 3.93 FIP	27	SU	3.93	27.3%	10.0%	3.4%	.280	4.09	28.5%	17.2%	107	+0.16	3.01	363	86
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	85
Jaye Chapman R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.08	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.76	3.25	150	85
Scott Oberg R 2016 · 3.19 FIP	26	SU	3.19	22.9%	9.1%	1.6%	.260	2.92	23.8%	16.4%	188	-0.27	2.54	302	85
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	85
Maikel Cleto R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	26	SU	3.79	25.8%	12.1%	2.4%	.214	3.13	25.0%	15.3%	55	-0.66	2.59	156	85
José Ramírez R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	26	SU	3.36	23.0%	10.4%	1.6%	.274	4.56	21.7%	10.8%	62	+1.20	3.36	206	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	24.1%	10.4%	1.05	4.21
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64