RJ Petit
P
Erie SeaWolves
+0.6
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'8" / 287 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.7 · 2026
ERA4.04
FIP4.04
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%24.2%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%14.6%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
K†6060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 6 | 1 | 8 | 34 | 8 | 3 | 1 | — | — | — | 7.04 | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | West Michigan Whitecaps | 49 | 0 | 54 | 233 | 62 | 17 | 6 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 3.67 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 42 | 1 | 57 | 253 | 56 | 18 | 6 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.49 | 4.32 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 43 | 1 | 59 | 244 | 76 | 27 | 2 | 25.2% | 12.2% | 1.1% | 3.68 | 3.10 | +1.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Toledo Mud Hens | 47 | 2 | 66 | 268 | 79 | 22 | 4 | 24.7% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 2.44 | 3.09 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 63 | 264 | 64 | 25 | 7 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 62 | 262 | 63 | 25 | 7 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.07 | 4.07 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | DET | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 62 | 25 | 7 | 24.1% | 9.6% | 2.6% | 4.11 | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | DET | 60 | — | 60 | 252 | 60 | 24 | 7 | 23.9% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.17 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | DET | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 58 | 24 | 7 | 23.7% | 9.7% | 2.8% | 4.21 | 4.24 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | DET | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 55 | 23 | 7 | 23.4% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | DET | 54 | — | 54 | 227 | 53 | 23 | 7 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | DET | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 50 | 22 | 7 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | DET | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 46 | 21 | 6 | 22.5% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 4.54 | 4.61 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | DET | 46 | — | 46 | 194 | 43 | 21 | 6 | 22.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.65 | 4.73 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | DET | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 39 | 20 | 6 | 21.7% | 10.9% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 187 | 5 | 243 | 1032 | 225 | 96 | 24 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 3.40 | 3.74 | +4.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 4 | 200 | 848 | 185 | 79 | 20 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 3.40 | 3.74 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| RJ Petit (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.04 | 24.2% | 9.6% | 2.5% | — | 4.12 | 24.0% | 14.4% | 183 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.85 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.3% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.07 | 3.23 | 161 | 93 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.22 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .273 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.31 | 3.70 | 187 | 90 |
| Collin Baumgartner R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.76 | 23.9% | 12.3% | 2.0% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 117 | 90 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.52 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .244 | 3.73 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.21 | 3.18 | 253 | 90 |
| Blake Smith R 2027 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 89 |
| Seth Simmons R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.07 | 23.8% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .277 | 4.88 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 175 | +1.81 | 3.07 | 251 | 89 |
| Colton Murray R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.05 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | .295 | 4.28 | 21.8% | 13.1% | 41 | +0.23 | 3.34 | 187 | 88 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.86 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | .242 | 2.97 | 25.1% | 15.7% | 62 | -0.89 | 2.97 | 167 | 88 |
| Scott Oberg R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.24 | 22.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .260 | 2.93 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 188 | -0.31 | 2.59 | 302 | 88 |
| Jeff Johnson R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.18 | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.3% | .284 | 3.71 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 55 | +0.53 | 2.49 | 160 | 88 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2027 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 87 |
| Randall Delgado R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.83 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .303 | 4.06 | 19.2% | 12.5% | 143 | +0.23 | 3.05 | 290 | 87 |
| Simon Castro R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 87 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2026 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 86 |
| Maikel Cleto R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.89 | 25.8% | 12.1% | 2.6% | .214 | 3.12 | 25.0% | 15.3% | 55 | -0.77 | 2.59 | 156 | 86 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .267 | 3.51 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | -0.09 | 3.51 | 103 | 86 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.33 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .282 | 3.20 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -1.13 | 1.79 | 618 | 86 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2028 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 86 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.94 | 25.1% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .310 | 4.64 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 79 | +0.70 | 3.84 | 272 | 86 |
| R.J. Alaniz R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.90 | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.6% | .318 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 96 | -0.61 | 2.45 | 362 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2027
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| Totals | $5M | $12M | +$6M | ||