Kahley Chan

P DSL Rockies

Age 18 RHP ROK peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	17	ROKCOL	11	6	35	7.90	3.52	11.9%	5.6%	—	K 8.1% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.27
2027PROJ	18	MLBCOL	4	4	21	4.58	4.58	17.4%	7.5%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	19	MLBCOL	3	3	16	4.47	4.42	18.9%	7.5%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 99%

CompsSean Paul Liñan (age 18) · Jose Cedeno (age 17) · Jose Espada (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%17.4%

BB%7.5%

K-BB%9.9%

Proj IP21

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	6	35	160	19	9	2	55%	3.2	8.1%	7.0%	1.0%	1.7%	7.90	4.27	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rockies	11	6	35	160	19	9	2	55%	3.2	8.1%	7.0%	1.0%	1.7%	7.90	4.27	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rockies	11	6	35	160	19	9	2	55%	3.2	11.9%	5.6%	6.2%	1.2%	7.90	3.52	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	18	MLB	COL	4	4	21	89	15	7	3	100%	5.2	17.4%	7.5%	9.9%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	COL	6	6	33	141	27	11	4	100%	5.6	18.9%	7.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.47	4.42	+0.2
2028	19	MLB CTX	COL	3	3	16	68	13	5	2	100%	5.3	18.9%	7.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.47	4.42	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	16	69	13	5	2	100%	5.5	18.9%	7.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.47	4.04	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	158	61	24	100%	5.9	18.9%	7.5%	11.5%	2.9%	4.47	4.04	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		11	6	35	160	13	11	3	55%	3.2	8.1%	7.0%	1.0%	1.7%	7.90	4.27	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	34	200	906	73	64	16	55%	3.2	8.1%	7.0%	1.0%	1.7%	7.90	4.27	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kahley Chan (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	17.4%	7.5%	2.9%	—	4.42	18.9%	11.5%	33	-0.16	—	—	—
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	89
Jose Cedeno R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	17	SP-	4.66	15.3%	9.7%	3.0%	.271	3.39	21.5%	12.9%	88	-1.27	2.80	123	85
Jose Espada R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	18	SP-	4.42	15.5%	7.4%	3.1%	.234	5.09	9.6%	3.5%	53	+0.67	4.07	357	85
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	84
Gabriel Aguilera R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	18	SP-	3.94	12.7%	5.3%	2.2%	.291	3.15	21.3%	9.9%	46	-0.79	3.15	244	83
Yeison Santana R 2015 · 4.65 FIP	18	SP-	4.65	14.3%	9.0%	2.9%	.352	2.50	19.8%	14.5%	78	-2.15	1.61	129	82
Wellington Caceres R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP-	4.16	13.9%	6.4%	2.6%	.306	5.82	13.1%	2.1%	68	+1.66	4.16	121	82
Williander Moreno R 2018 · 4.21 FIP	19	SW	4.21	13.7%	7.5%	2.4%	.302	5.16	20.2%	10.1%	57	+0.95	3.20	246	82
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	81
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	81
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	81
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	81
Josh Winckowski R 2016 · 5.32 FIP	18	SP-	5.32	13.8%	7.8%	4.4%	.311	4.55	14.5%	4.3%	181	-0.77	3.58	650	81
Saul Gonzalez R 2021 · 3.66 FIP	21	SP-	3.66	16.1%	8.4%	1.6%	.320	3.24	19.8%	9.6%	70	-0.42	2.94	110	81
Jose Zacarias R 2015 · 3.80 FIP	18	SP-	3.80	16.1%	4.7%	2.6%	.342	3.73	9.7%	1.1%	54	-0.07	3.73	104	81
Charlie Neuweiler R 2017 · 4.50 FIP	18	SW	4.50	14.4%	9.3%	2.6%	.223	5.02	16.9%	5.3%	199	+0.52	4.05	418	80
Anthony Escobar R 2019 · 4.44 FIP	18	SP-	4.44	15.1%	9.7%	2.5%	.263	5.33	14.2%	-3.5%	23	+0.89	3.07	122	80
Abdiel Medina R 2019 · 3.63 FIP	17	SW	3.63	16.2%	9.3%	1.3%	.303	4.73	14.8%	6.3%	88	+1.10	3.56	191	80
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	80
Luis Florentino R 2019 · 3.74 FIP	19	SP-	3.74	14.5%	8.7%	1.4%	.254	6.16	16.4%	3.8%	60	+2.42	3.74	110	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	18.4%	7.5%	1.13	4.51
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Dave Leiper ('84-'96, 0 WAR*)	1.4	46	15.6%*	9.1%*	0.94*	4.28*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*