Juan Rivera — OGILVIE

Juan Rivera P DSL Royals Ventura

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 162 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 15 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%17.1%

BB%12.5%

K-BB%4.6%

ROS IP15

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	10	5	26	119	25	16	2	50%	2.6	14.3%	16.8%	-2.5%	1.8%	5.47	5.03	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	10	5	26	119	25	16	2	50%	2.6	14.3%	16.8%	-2.5%	1.8%	5.47	5.03	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	10	5	26	119	25	16	2	50%	2.6	21.0%	13.4%	7.6%	1.7%	5.47	4.01	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	10	32	140	12	14	0	100%	3.2	5.8%	12.5%	-6.7%	0.0%	3.34	4.19	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	10	10	32	140	12	14	0	100%	3.2	5.8%	12.5%	-6.7%	0.0%	3.34	4.19	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	10	10	32	140	12	14	0	100%	3.2	8.6%	10.0%	-1.4%	0.0%	3.34	3.66	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	7	7	21	95	13	10	2	100%	3.0	9.3%	13.2%	-3.9%	2.9%	4.79	5.60	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	7	7	21	95	13	10	2	100%	3.0	9.3%	13.2%	-3.9%	2.9%	4.79	5.60	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	7	7	21	95	13	10	2	100%	3.0	13.7%	10.5%	3.2%	2.1%	4.79	4.55	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	KC	3	3	15	63	11	8	2	100%	5.0	17.1%	12.5%	4.6%	2.9%	5.23	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	KC	6	6	31	129	24	15	4	100%	5.1	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.9%	5.00	4.91	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	KC	3	3	15	63	12	7	2	100%	5.0	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.9%	5.00	4.91	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	64	12	7	2	100%	5.0	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.9%	5.00	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	160	93	27	100%	4.8	18.7%	11.3%	7.4%	2.9%	5.00	4.53	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		27	22	79	354	34	50	5	81%	2.9	9.6%	14.1%	-4.5%	1.4%	4.42	4.85	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	55	200	892	86	126	13	81%	2.9	9.6%	14.1%	-4.5%	1.4%	4.42	4.85	-0.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Rivera (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	17.1%	12.5%	2.9%	—	4.91	18.7%	7.4%	31	-0.32	—	—	—
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	92
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	89
Cristian Aray R 2024 · 4.99 FIP	17	SP-	4.99	14.8%	11.8%	3.0%	.272	4.48	13.0%	-2.3%	72	-0.51	4.44	104	85
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	85
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	85
Jose Disla R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	20	SP	5.52	15.8%	13.4%	3.8%	.296	4.49	19.7%	8.8%	70	-1.03	3.61	139	85
Adam Bates R 2024 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP-	5.12	16.2%	14.1%	2.9%	.358	6.39	13.0%	-7.2%	146	+1.27	5.12	183	84
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	83
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	83
Gio Arriera R 2017 · 5.41 FIP	19	SP	5.41	15.1%	13.9%	3.3%	.333	4.34	15.5%	2.0%	79	-1.07	4.34	185	83
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	83
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	82
Randry De Leon R 2024 · 4.49 FIP	19	SP	4.49	18.0%	11.5%	2.6%	.284	5.01	18.6%	1.6%	80	+0.52	4.37	153	82
Victor Mederos R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	21	SP	4.69	15.6%	14.0%	2.1%	.286	5.19	16.4%	5.7%	301	+0.50	3.73	394	82
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	82
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	81
Alexander Almonte R 2024 · 5.69 FIP	17	SP	5.69	16.2%	13.8%	4.0%	.250	4.82	12.6%	-2.8%	75	-0.87	4.27	100	81
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	81
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	80
Justin Germano R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP-	4.49	14.7%	12.8%	1.8%	.377	4.12	13.8%	7.3%	133	-0.37	3.73	405	80