Hector Campusano
SS FCL Orioles| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKDSL Orioles O… | 166 | .240/.402/.341 | 2 | 12 | 47 | — | .158/.287/.216 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKDSL Orioles O… | 187 | .305/.497/.344 | 0 | 19 | 85 | — | .228/.381/.255 |
| 2026 | 19 | A/ROKBAL | 240 | .289/.421/.363 | 0 | 17 | 72 | — | .230/.326/.279 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBBAL | 350 | .218/.301/.289 | 2 | 8 | 71 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBBAL | 66 | .227/.310/.317 | 1 | 2 | 78 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 22 | MLBBAL | 145 | .231/.314/.333 | 2 | 4 | 83 | 0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 166 | 129 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 28 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 240 | 402 | 341 | 744 | 101 | 287 | 17 | 17 | 348 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 187 | 131 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 27 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 305 | 497 | 344 | 841 | 38 | 377 | 14 | 26 | 390 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 50 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 175 | 312 | 175 | 487 | 269 | 28 | 16 | 238 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | FCL Orioles | — | 190 | 150 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 31 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 320 | 449 | 413 | 862 | 93 | 387 | 16 | 16 | 385 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 166 | 139 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 35 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 158 | 287 | 216 | 502 | 58 | 194 | 21 | 11 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 187 | 145 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 33 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 228 | 381 | 255 | 636 | 28 | 271 | 18 | 19 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | A MLE | Delmarva Shorebirds | — | 50 | 42 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 167 | 271 | 167 | 438 | 259 | 38 | 12 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Orioles | — | 190 | 162 | 40 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 45 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 247 | 341 | 309 | 649 | 62 | 317 | 24 | 10 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 166 | 139 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 35 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 158 | 287 | 216 | 502 | 58 | 200 | 21 | 11 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 166 | 129 | 31 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 28 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 240 | 402 | 341 | 744 | 101 | 287 | 17 | 17 | 348 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 187 | 145 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 33 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 228 | 381 | 255 | 636 | 28 | 289 | 18 | 19 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 187 | 131 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 49 | 27 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 305 | 497 | 344 | 841 | 38 | 377 | 14 | 26 | 390 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 204 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 64 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 230 | 326 | 279 | 606 | 49 | 324 | 27 | 10 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 240 | 190 | 55 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 39 | 45 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 289 | 421 | 363 | 784 | 74 | 367 | 19 | 16 | 355 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 166 | 140 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 35 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 157 | 287 | 214 | 501 | 57 | 194 | 21 | 11 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 187 | 149 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 33 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 221 | 381 | 248 | 630 | 27 | 271 | 18 | 19 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 209 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 64 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 225 | 326 | 273 | 599 | 48 | 305 | 27 | 10 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 166 | 140 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 35 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 157 | 287 | 214 | 501 | 57 | 194 | 21 | 11 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Orioles Orange | — | 187 | 149 | 33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 33 | 1 | 19 | 3 | 221 | 381 | 248 | 630 | 27 | 271 | 18 | 19 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 240 | 209 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 64 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 225 | 326 | 273 | 599 | 48 | 305 | 27 | 10 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | BAL | 0% | 350 | 310 | 67 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 84 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 218 | 301 | 289 | 591 | 72 | 289 | 24 | 9 | 273 | 71 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | BAL | 34% | 193 | 171 | 38 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 223 | 307 | 311 | 618 | 87 | 290 | 23 | 9 | 283 | 78 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB MLE | BAL | 48% | 300 | 265 | 61 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 29 | 70 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 228 | 311 | 327 | 638 | 99 | 291 | 23 | 10 | 291 | 83 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB MLE | BAL | 54% | 381 | 338 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 88 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 231 | 314 | 339 | 653 | 108 | 292 | 23 | 9 | 296 | 87 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.7 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 435 | 385 | 91 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 100 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 233 | 316 | 347 | 663 | 114 | 293 | 23 | 10 | 300 | 89 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +9 | 1.0 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB MLE | BAL | 56% | 462 | 410 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 106 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 235 | 317 | 352 | 669 | 118 | 293 | 23 | 10 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB MLE | BAL | 56% | 477 | 424 | 99 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 109 | 5 | 12 | 3 | 235 | 317 | 353 | 670 | 119 | 293 | 23 | 9 | 303 | 91 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 1.2 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 481 | 427 | 99 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 111 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 234 | 316 | 351 | 667 | 117 | 292 | 23 | 10 | 302 | 90 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 1.1 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 477 | 424 | 99 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 111 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 232 | 314 | 346 | 660 | 114 | 292 | 23 | 9 | 299 | 89 | -6 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 1.0 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB MLE | BAL | 53% | 468 | 416 | 96 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 44 | 110 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 230 | 311 | 340 | 652 | 110 | 291 | 24 | 9 | 296 | 86 | -8 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB MLE | BAL | 57% | 456 | 406 | 91 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 109 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 227 | 308 | 333 | 641 | 106 | 289 | 24 | 9 | 291 | 83 | -9 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB MLE | BAL | 55% | 441 | 393 | 88 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 41 | 107 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 223 | 303 | 323 | 627 | 100 | 287 | 24 | 9 | 286 | 79 | -11 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +10 | 0.1 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB MLE | BAL | 58% | 418 | 373 | 82 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 38 | 103 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 218 | 298 | 312 | 609 | 93 | 283 | 25 | 9 | 278 | 75 | -13 | -0 | -4 | +4 | +9 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | BAL | 34% | 66 | 59 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 227 | 310 | 317 | 627 | 90 | 294 | 24 | 9 | 287 | 78 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB CTX | BAL | 48% | 145 | 128 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 314 | 333 | 648 | 102 | 295 | 23 | 10 | 295 | 83 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB CTX | BAL | 54% | 207 | 183 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 48 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 235 | 317 | 346 | 663 | 111 | 296 | 23 | 10 | 301 | 87 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 241 | 213 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 55 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 237 | 319 | 355 | 674 | 117 | 297 | 23 | 10 | 305 | 89 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB CTX | BAL | 56% | 259 | 229 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 59 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 238 | 320 | 360 | 680 | 122 | 297 | 23 | 10 | 307 | 91 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB CTX | BAL | 56% | 268 | 237 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 26 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 238 | 320 | 361 | 681 | 123 | 297 | 23 | 10 | 307 | 91 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.7 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 266 | 236 | 56 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 237 | 319 | 358 | 678 | 121 | 297 | 23 | 9 | 306 | 90 | -3 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 261 | 231 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 236 | 317 | 354 | 671 | 118 | 296 | 23 | 10 | 303 | 89 | -4 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB CTX | BAL | 53% | 250 | 221 | 51 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 59 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 233 | 315 | 348 | 662 | 114 | 295 | 24 | 10 | 300 | 86 | -4 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB CTX | BAL | 57% | 260 | 231 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 62 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 230 | 311 | 340 | 651 | 109 | 293 | 24 | 9 | 295 | 83 | -5 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB CTX | BAL | 55% | 241 | 215 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 58 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 226 | 306 | 330 | 637 | 104 | 291 | 24 | 9 | 290 | 79 | -6 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB CTX | BAL | 58% | 242 | 216 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 221 | 301 | 318 | 618 | 97 | 287 | 25 | 9 | 282 | 75 | -7 | -0 | -2 | +3 | +5 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2706 | 2399 | 558 | 98 | 16 | 45 | 256 | 634 | 30 | 58 | 12 | 233 | 314 | 343 | 657 | 110 | 296 | 23 | 9 | 299 | 84 | -46 | +7 | -6 | +29 | +59 | 4.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 576 | 135 | 24 | 4 | 11 | 61 | 152 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 234 | 315 | 347 | 662 | 113 | 298 | 23 | 9 | 299 | 84 | -11 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5722 | 5045 | 1149 | 196 | 33 | 86 | 563 | 1334 | 63 | 158 | 41 | 228 | 313 | 331 | 644 | 103 | 291 | 23 | 10 | 292 | 84 | -90 | +10 | -10 | +55 | +111 | 7.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 573 | 131 | 22 | 4 | 10 | 64 | 152 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 229 | 314 | 333 | 647 | 105 | 292 | 23 | 10 | 292 | 84 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKFCL Orioles · 190 PAwOBA .387 → .297 (−89)K% 16.3% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.32% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 23.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 10.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.11% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 26.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 4.97% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×1.008 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .387 → .297; ISO .093 → .071; BABIP .387 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ADelmarva Shorebirds · 50 PAwOBA .234 → .194 (−39)K% 28.0% → 38.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 11.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.045 | 25.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .234 → .194; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .269 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 187 PAwOBA .387 → .294 (−93)K% 14.4% → 17.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.44% | ÷1.009 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 26.20% | ÷1.001 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 18.46% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 34.62% | ÷0.989 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 25.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.88% | ÷1.010 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.96% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.913 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 98, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .387 → .294; ISO .038 → .026; BABIP .377 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Orioles Orange · 166 PAwOBA .342 → .238 (−104)K% 16.9% → 21.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.87% | ÷0.981 | ×1.220 | — | — | 20.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.87% | ÷1.041 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 11.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.61% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 2.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.78% | ÷1.082 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 14.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.93% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 4.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.98% | ÷0.992 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.96% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 116, 2B 85, 3B 130, K 96, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .342 → .238; ISO .101 → .064; BABIP .287 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).