Armando Lao — OGILVIE

Armando LaoC DSL Tigers 1

Age 19 R/R 5'10" / 170 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 22 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .273 / .250

PA22

HR0

K%27

BB%9

BABIP286

ISO50

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$21M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	73	60	6	1	0	0	5	33	7	3	1	100	250	117	367	17	222	45	7	167	-14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	73	57	8	1	0	0	8	23	7	3	1	140	319	158	477	18	235	32	11	251	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	40	35	8	0	0	0	3	10	1	1	1	229	308	229	536		308	25	8	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	40	33	10	0	0	0	5	7	1	1	1	303	410	303	713		370	18	12	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	DET	—	28	25	5	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	200	286	200	486		238	14	7	238	40	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
YTD	19	ROK	DET	—	28	23	6	0	0	0	4	3	1	0	0	261	393	261	654		300	11	14	320	103	+0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
ROS	19	ROK	DET	0%	22	20	4	1	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	200	273	250	523	50	289	27	9	252	51	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
ROS	19	MLB	DET	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		285	—	—	233	36	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	DET	—	28	26	5	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	192	286	192	478		227	14	7	238	40	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.1
TOT	19	ROK	DET	—	50	45	9	1	0	0	4	10	1	0	0	200	280	222	502	22	257	20	8	244	45	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	DET	34%	140	126	27	4	1	2	10	40	3	2	0	214	288	310	597	95	291	29	7	264	60	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2028	21	MLB	DET	48%	285	256	56	8	2	4	21	79	6	4	1	219	293	312	606	94	292	28	7	272	67	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2029	22	MLB	DET	54%	394	353	77	11	2	6	30	108	8	5	1	218	294	312	606	93	293	27	8	278	71	-13	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.6
2030	23	MLB	DET	57%	468	419	92	13	3	8	36	128	10	6	2	220	297	322	619	103	294	27	8	282	74	-14	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.8
2031	24	MLB	DET	57%	516	461	103	15	3	9	39	140	11	7	2	223	299	328	627	104	295	27	8	284	76	-14	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2032	25	MLB	DET	57%	520	464	104	15	3	10	40	141	11	7	2	224	301	334	635	110	295	27	8	286	77	-14	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2033	26	MLB	DET	56%	520	464	104	15	3	10	40	141	11	7	2	224	301	334	635	110	295	27	8	287	77	-13	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2034	27	MLB	DET	55%	520	463	104	15	3	10	41	142	11	7	2	225	303	335	638	110	295	27	8	287	77	-13	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.2
2035	28	MLB	DET	55%	520	463	104	15	3	10	41	142	11	6	2	225	303	335	638	110	294	27	8	286	77	-14	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.0
2027	20	MLB	DET	34%	48	43	8	1	0	0	4	14	1	1	0	186	271	209	480	23	287	29	8	244	45	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	DET	48%	138	124	27	4	1	2	10	38	3	2	0	218	292	315	606	97	288	28	7	253	52	-8	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2029	22	MLB	DET	54%	214	191	41	6	1	3	16	59	5	3	1	215	292	304	596	89	289	28	7	258	56	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.1
2030	23	MLB	DET	57%	265	237	50	7	1	4	20	72	6	3	1	211	289	300	589	89	290	27	8	262	59	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.0
2031	24	MLB	DET	57%	292	262	57	8	2	5	22	79	6	4	1	218	293	321	614	103	291	27	8	264	60	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2032	25	MLB	DET	57%	294	263	58	8	2	5	23	80	6	4	1	221	298	323	621	103	291	27	8	266	61	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2033	26	MLB	DET	56%	294	263	57	8	2	5	23	80	6	4	1	217	295	319	614	103	291	27	8	267	62	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2034	27	MLB	DET	55%	288	258	57	8	2	5	22	78	6	4	1	221	297	326	623	105	290	27	8	267	62	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2035	28	MLB	DET	55%	285	255	55	8	1	5	22	78	6	4	1	216	293	314	607	98	290	27	8	266	61	-12	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2118	1897	410	58	12	34	162	578	45	29	7	216	293	313	607	97	291	27	8	263	60	-97	+3	-0	+38	+60	0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	126	18	4	10	50	177	14	9	2	216	294	313	607	96	292	27	8	263	60	-30	+1	-0	+12	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	4018	3584	789	113	23	69	308	1110	90	55	16	220	298	322	620	102	297	28	8	280	72	-125	+5	-1	+72	+114	6.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	127	18	4	11	50	180	15	9	3	219	298	321	619	102	295	28	8	280	72	-20	+1	-0	+12	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	73	57	8	1	0	0	8	23	7	3	1	140	319	158	477	18	235	32	11	251	51	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
2025	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	40	33	10	0	0	0	5	7	1	1	1	303	410	303	713		370	18	12	332	112	+1	-0	—	—	+1	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,168	37	28	221	295	323	+39	+24	4.1	4.0
	/162	664	11	9	221	295	323	+11.9	+7.4	1.3	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Armando Lao (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	200/280/222	22	257	0	0	20%	8%	45	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jose Paniagua 2014 · A	20	34	37→50	42→55	38	168/222/238	70	249	4	6	33%	6%	20	-3.8	194/249/295	101	279	8	10	32%	6%	46	-2.0	195/250/314	119	272	10	13	31%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Carlos Franco 2011 · A	19	32→42	38→45	46→45	39	164/228/238	74	249	6	5	35%	7%	24	-3.5	190/250/258	68	281	4	9	31%	7%	37	-2.6	213/270/320	107	302	12	3	32%	7%	59	-0.9
✕Roberto Perez 2009 · A	20	33	38→45	43→30	39	167/229/240	73	245	7	3	34%	6%	25	-3.5	200/268/307	107	263	11	4	27%	7%	59	-1.1	189/266/312	123	228	15	1	24%	8%	60	-0.4
✕Mike McDade 2009 · A	20	36→46	37→50	47→30	35	179/217/250	71	267	5	3	34%	4%	20	-3.8	217/257/345	128	309	15	2	34%	4%	63	-0.8	242/288/372	129	307	15	1	25%	5%	82	+0.4
✕David Washington 2010 · A	19	39→38	35→55	49→45	33	181/231/236	55	318	3	6	42%	5%	24	-3.6	192/249/297	105	309	10	6	38%	6%	47	-1.9	200/261/369	169	326	23	5	44%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Xavier Hernandez 2006 · A	20	36	36→40	49→30	36	173/233/232	59	289	4	5	39%	6%	24	-3.6	203/261/282	79	296	7	4	32%	6%	49	-1.8	201/260/275	74	277	8	0	29%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Carlos Quintana 2007 · A	20	41	34→40	42→40	33	185/233/237	52	322	2	6	41%	5%	24	-3.5	211/273/284	73	298	4	6	28%	7%	54	-1.4	214/278/283	69	296	4	8	27%	6%	53	-0.5
✕Earving Fernandez 2007 · A	19	38	35→40	46→45	39	182/223/239	57	244	3	6	26%	5%	20	-3.8	211/266/277	66	283	3	8	25%	6%	50	-1.8	215/273/275	59	289	3	9	25%	6%	50	-0.6
✕Jorge Parra 2014 · A	19	38	34→30	46→40	37	179/232/234	54	280	2	9	35%	6%	24	-3.6	193/247/254	61	282	2	6	30%	6%	35	-2.8	192/242/250	58	273	1	4	28%	5%	32	-1.0
✕Jimmy Paredes 2008 · A	19	41→51	37→50	46→55	36	198/228/273	75	253	4	6	24%	3%	31	-3.0	217/248/301	84	276	4	12	22%	3%	46	-2.0	252/281/382	130	343	12	15	29%	4%	80	+0.2
✕Randy Claxton 2007 · A	21	35	35→30	46→45	40	170/233/226	56	243	3	7	30%	6%	23	-3.6	195/281/257	62	265	2	6	25%	8%	52	-1.6	184/298/226	42	243	0	2	21%	10%	53	-0.6
✕Jake Gatewood 2016 · A	20	35→38	39→55	43→45	31	173/216/257	85	301	7	7	44%	5%	23	-3.6	186/225/297	111	297	11	5	39%	4%	37	-2.6	163/208/333	170	243	24	6	43%	4%	38	-1.7
✕Yonathan Mejia 2011 · A	18	38	37→40	48→45	37	185/220/261	76	247	4	6	27%	4%	24	-3.5	207/238/269	62	273	3	6	24%	3%	34	-2.8	219/245/272	53	277	3	5	22%	3%	35	-0.9
✕Kristian Brito 2013 · A	18	39→29	37→50	49→40	30	182/221/251	69	320	4	7	43%	4%	22	-3.7	182/220/288	106	316	12	5	44%	4%	32	-3.0	156/193/255	100	272	12	2	46%	4%	11	-2.0
✕Cristian Olivo 2018 · A	19	36	38→40	49→45	29	176/214/258	82	299	5	8	42%	4%	22	-3.7	174/212/253	79	340	5	8	48%	4%	19	-3.9	88/108/144	56	214	4	7	60%	2%	-57	-2.2
✕Erwin Almonte 2014 · A	19	40	34→30	46→30	42	186/229/238	52	230	2	3	20%	4%	23	-3.6	209/246/276	67	241	3	4	14%	4%	40	-2.4	218/247/284	66	239	3	1	11%	3%	38	-0.9
✕Rafael Jimenez 2019 · A	19	34	40	48→30	31	170/216/250	80	294	8	3	44%	5%	21	-3.7	182/233/255	73	335	5	4	44%	6%	30	-3.1	118/170/143	25	253	0	0	50%	6%	-27	-1.4
✕Randy Federico 2017 · A	19	37	34→30	44→45	36	172/237/219	47	295	2	7	40%	6%	23	-3.6	173/229/232	59	266	3	7	34%	5%	22	-3.7	121/169/157	37	177	2	7	32%	4%	-20	-2.2
✕Ismael Pena 2014 · A	18	38	36→30	45	40	184/225/253	70	248	3	8	27%	5%	25	-3.5	188/236/259	71	248	5	4	25%	6%	31	-3.0	183/229/247	64	232	5	2	23%	5%	23	-1.0
✕Ramon Mariano 2007 · A	19	37	34→30	44→30	42	176/234/228	52	247	2	4	28%	6%	23	-3.6	178/239/239	61	243	3	4	26%	6%	28	-3.2	130/195/171	41	171	2	0	24%	5%	-7	-2.0