Gilberto Lopez — OGILVIE

Gilberto Lopez P ACL Rangers

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%18.2%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%6.6%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	10	0	32	150	39	20	2	0%	3.2	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	1.8%	4.73	4.69	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	10	0	32	150	39	20	2	0%	3.2	17.7%	16.7%	1.0%	1.8%	4.73	4.69	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	10	0	32	150	39	20	2	0%	3.2	26.0%	13.3%	12.7%	1.3%	4.73	3.35	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	8	49	206	56	15	3	73%	4.5	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	1.6%	3.12	3.58	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	8	49	206	56	15	3	73%	4.5	18.5%	9.1%	9.4%	1.6%	3.12	3.58	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	11	8	49	206	56	15	3	73%	4.5	27.2%	7.3%	19.9%	1.5%	3.12	2.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	13	0	24	115	24	12	5	0%	1.8	14.2%	13.0%	1.1%	6.1%	8.25	6.89	—
YTD	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	13	0	24	115	24	12	5	0%	1.8	14.2%	13.0%	1.1%	6.1%	8.25	6.89	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	ROK RAW	TEX	13	0	24	115	24	12	5	0%	1.8	20.9%	10.4%	10.4%	4.3%	8.25	5.05	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TEX	44	0	46	195	38	21	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.83	4.76	-0.1
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	45	0	48	201	41	20	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	-0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	46	0	48	203	42	20	6	0%	1.0	20.8%	9.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.57	4.52	+0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	46	0	48	203	43	20	6	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	2.8%	4.52	4.49	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	TEX	22	0	23	97	19	10	3	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	2.9%	4.83	4.76	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	31	0	33	139	28	14	4	0%	1.1	20.3%	10.1%	10.2%	2.8%	4.68	4.61	-0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	37	0	39	165	34	16	5	0%	1.1	20.8%	9.8%	11.1%	2.8%	4.57	4.52	+0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	40	0	42	177	37	17	5	0%	1.1	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	2.8%	4.52	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	0	137	578	119	58	16	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	2.8%	4.62	4.19	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	85	23	0%	1.1	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	2.8%	4.62	4.19	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		34	8	105	471	81	59	13	24%	3.1	17.2%	12.5%	4.7%	2.8%	4.78	4.74	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	15	200	894	154	112	25	24%	3.1	17.2%	12.5%	4.7%	2.8%	4.78	4.74	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gilberto Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	18.2%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.63	20.2%	10.0%	142	-0.37	—	—	—
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	88
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	86
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	85
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.16	16.5%	8.7%	206	+0.96	4.20	275	85
A.J. Bogucki R 2017 · 3.84 FIP	22	SW	3.84	15.5%	8.4%	1.8%	.308	4.40	19.2%	8.2%	87	+0.56	3.84	142	85
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	84
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr R 2022 · 4.61 FIP	24	SU	4.61	21.0%	13.2%	2.9%	.341	4.74	15.7%	4.0%	343	+0.13	3.65	492	84
Jake Christianson R 2023 · 4.00 FIP	23	SW	4.00	17.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.309	4.72	16.4%	6.1%	105	+0.72	4.00	188	84
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.36	19.2%	10.6%	193	+0.12	3.92	257	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	82
Tai Tiedemann R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	23	SU	3.87	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.78	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.91	3.87	190	82
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	82
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	82
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	82
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	82
Junior Cerda R 2022 · 5.48 FIP	22	SU	5.48	16.9%	13.6%	3.8%	.277	4.56	19.3%	2.0%	68	-0.92	2.76	135	82
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	82
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.2	47	20.0%	10.4%	1.11	4.72
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84