Darrel Lunar — OGILVIE

Darrel Lunar P FCL Nationals

Age 21 RHP 6'3" / 150 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 36 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139131vR 123

ERA5.59

FIP5.59

K%17.0%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%1.7%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL3030

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	15	4	36	153	41	13	1	27%	2.4	18.2%	10.6%	7.6%	0.8%	4.00	3.32	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	15	4	36	153	41	13	1	27%	2.4	18.2%	10.6%	7.6%	0.8%	4.00	3.32	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	15	4	36	153	41	13	1	27%	2.4	26.8%	8.5%	18.3%	0.7%	4.00	2.27	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	10	46	204	47	24	3	71%	3.3	15.7%	14.7%	1.0%	1.6%	4.93	4.49	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	14	10	46	204	47	24	3	71%	3.3	15.7%	14.7%	1.0%	1.6%	4.93	4.49	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	14	10	46	204	47	24	3	71%	3.3	23.0%	11.8%	11.3%	1.5%	4.93	3.47	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	WSH	34	0	36	152	26	23	4	0%	1.1	17.0%	15.2%	1.7%	2.9%	5.59	5.59	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	41	0	43	182	34	25	5	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.5%	5.0%	2.9%	5.31	5.21	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	20	0	21	89	16	12	3	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.5%	5.0%	2.9%	5.31	5.21	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		20	0	21	90	17	12	3	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.5%	5.0%	2.9%	5.31	4.83	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	113	28	0%	1.1	18.6%	13.5%	5.0%	2.9%	5.31	4.83	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		29	14	82	357	60	46	4	48%	2.8	16.8%	13.0%	3.8%	1.2%	4.52	3.99	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	34	200	874	147	113	11	48%	2.8	16.8%	13.0%	3.8%	1.2%	4.52	3.99	-1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darrel Lunar (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.59	17.0%	15.2%	2.9%	—	5.21	18.6%	5.0%	43	-0.38	—	—	—
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	89
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	88
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	87
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	85
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	84
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	84
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	83
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	83
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	83
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	82
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	82
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	82
Luis Rujano R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	21	SW	4.54	17.0%	12.3%	2.4%	.361	4.80	17.9%	-0.8%	97	+0.26	4.54	203	81
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	81
Michael Martinez R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	20	SW	4.50	15.7%	16.5%	1.2%	.303	5.67	20.7%	7.0%	18	+1.17	3.69	146	81
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SW	5.28	17.7%	15.0%	3.2%	.300	5.89	16.6%	1.2%	33	+0.61	3.34	129	81
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	81
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	81
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	81
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	39	17.9%	14.3%	1.13	5.44
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
John Parrish ('10)	1.4	46	17.6%	14.8%	0.88	4.51
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43