Jesus Tapia — OGILVIE

Jesus Tapia P DSL Pirates Black

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 173 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.12

FIP5.12

K%20.8%

BB%13.9%

K-BB%6.9%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	13	0	14	70	9	16	2	0%	1.1	8.7%	28.6%	-19.8%	4.0%	10.29	8.18	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	13	0	14	70	9	16	2	0%	1.1	8.7%	28.6%	-19.8%	4.0%	10.29	8.18	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	13	0	14	70	9	16	2	0%	1.1	12.9%	22.9%	-10.0%	2.9%	10.29	7.10	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	12	0	24	100	16	12	1	0%	2.0	10.9%	15.0%	-4.1%	1.5%	3.04	4.91	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	12	0	24	100	16	12	1	0%	2.0	10.9%	15.0%	-4.1%	1.5%	3.04	4.91	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	12	0	24	100	16	12	1	0%	2.0	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	1.0%	3.04	3.82	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	PIT	12	0	13	55	11	8	2	0%	1.1	20.8%	13.9%	6.9%	3.0%	5.12	5.12	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PIT	21	0	22	95	20	12	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.84	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PIT	10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.84	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		10	0	11	46	10	6	1	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.45	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	109	18	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.4%	9.1%	2.9%	4.92	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		25	0	38	170	17	35	4	0%	1.5	10.0%	20.6%	-10.6%	2.5%	5.73	6.25	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	0	200	903	90	186	23	0%	1.5	10.0%	20.6%	-10.6%	2.5%	5.73	6.25	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Tapia (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.12	20.8%	13.9%	3.0%	—	4.84	21.5%	9.1%	22	-0.28	—	—	—
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	88
Samuel Carpio R 2024 · 4.20 FIP	21	SU	4.20	21.2%	15.3%	1.7%	.300	5.36	21.6%	-3.4%	112	+1.16	4.20	134	88
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	88
Nolan Sparks R 2024 · 4.10 FIP	21	SU	4.10	21.8%	13.5%	2.1%	.229	4.72	19.3%	5.3%	140	+0.62	4.10	155	87
Drew Pestka R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	20	SU	4.26	19.0%	15.1%	1.6%	.298	4.55	18.1%	0.7%	83	+0.29	3.42	100	87
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	87
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	87
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	86
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	86
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	86
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	86
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	522	85
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	85
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	85
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	85
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	85
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	85
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	85
Carson Hobbs R 2024 · 5.63 FIP	22	SU	5.63	18.9%	13.6%	4.4%	.303	3.97	22.0%	10.4%	118	-1.66	3.54	143	85