Jesus Lugo — OGILVIE

Jesus LugoOF FCL Red Sox

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj PA

wRC+†52

AVG/OBP/SLG.193 / .259 / .270

PA38

HR0

K%32

BB%7

ISO78

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	135	115	21	5	0	2	14	45	3	2	3	183	288	278	566	96	268	33	10	261	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	24	20	4	0	1	0	4	5	0	2	0	200	333	300	633	100	267	21	17	297	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	135	119	13	3	0	1	10	55	3	2	3	109	197	160	357	50	172	41	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	24	21	3	0	1	0	3	7	0	2	0	143	250	238	488	95	214	29	12	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	135	119	13	3	0	1	10	55	3	2	3	109	197	160	357	50	182	41	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	135	115	21	5	0	2	14	45	3	2	3	183	288	278	566	96	268	33	10	261	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	24	21	3	0	1	0	3	7	0	2	0	143	250	238	488	95	214	29	12	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	24	20	4	0	1	0	4	5	0	2	0	200	333	300	633	100	267	21	17	297	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	135	121	13	3	0	1	10	55	3	2	3	107	197	157	354	50	172	41	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	24	21	3	0	1	0	3	7	0	2	0	143	250	238	488	95	214	29	12	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	135	121	13	3	0	1	10	55	3	2	3	107	197	157	354	50	172	41	7	166	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	24	21	3	0	1	0	3	7	0	2	0	143	250	238	488	95	214	29	12	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	134	122	24	4	1	1	10	43	1	2	0	195	261	272	534	78	288	32	7	245	52	-8	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	115	105	20	3	1	1	8	36	1	1	0	200	267	286	553	87	289	31	7	253	57	-6	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	40	37	6	1	0	0	3	13	0	1	0	205	272	293	565	88	297	32	8	257	57	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	40	37	6	1	0	0	3	13	0	1	0	162	225	189	414	27	250	32	8	257	29	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	601	97	16	0	0	49	211	0	16	0	161	225	188	413	27	249	32	8	257	29	-33	+3	+0	-4	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	312	280	42	7	2	2	24	110	4	5	3	150	227	211	438	61	233	35	8	210	29	-8	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	88	15	4	4	50	229	8	10	6	151	227	211	438	60	235	35	8	210	29	-34	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jesus Lugo (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	193/259/270	77	288	0	0	32%	7%	52	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	36→30	38→45	50	43	177/250/254	77	257	5	13	32%	7%	45	-2.7	207/272/309	102	322	8	15	36%	7%	65	-1.2	191/253/307	116	283	12	16	35%	6%	55	-0.9
✕Nelson Medina 2021 · A	20	37	39→45	48→50	41	176/252/260	84	283	6	10	37%	8%	47	-2.5	192/274/286	94	292	6	14	33%	9%	61	-1.5	139/214/211	72	250	5	19	43%	8%	20	-1.4
✕Omar Meregildo 2018 · A	20	35→31	36→50	47→30	41	172/239/241	69	258	3	6	33%	7%	38	-3.2	197/255/307	110	316	10	3	38%	7%	59	-1.7	174/242/299	125	281	15	1	41%	7%	50	-1.2
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	39→33	37→45	54→55	39	187/245/260	73	279	3	11	32%	6%	43	-2.8	186/260/317	131	336	16	16	46%	8%	63	-1.3	173/250/304	131	303	16	19	45%	8%	53	-1.4
✕George Feliz 2023 · A	20	34	39→45	54→45	38	169/229/251	81	271	6	13	38%	7%	36	-3.4	173/235/269	96	305	10	11	44%	6%	42	-2.9	160/223/268	108	267	13	9	43%	6%	36	-1.2
✕Trenton Kemp 2016 · A	20	39	38→50	49→45	42	185/259/266	81	282	4	10	34%	8%	51	-2.3	196/253/323	127	337	12	8	42%	6%	61	-1.5	179/235/323	144	312	16	7	45%	6%	51	-0.8
✕Ronald Castillo 2012 · A	20	40	38→45	51→40	39	190/248/273	83	289	4	8	34%	6%	48	-2.5	216/254/294	78	293	3	5	26%	4%	53	-2.1	205/238/282	76	271	4	1	25%	4%	43	-1.2
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	38→41	40→45	50→45	37	182/243/274	92	287	7	6	37%	6%	47	-2.6	199/249/314	115	274	11	5	30%	6%	57	-1.8	198/253/321	123	239	15	9	24%	6%	58	-1.1
✕Aaron Familia 2019 · A	20	39	37→40	47→40	44	179/272/247	69	298	4	5	38%	9%	53	-2.1	195/267/281	86	350	6	5	42%	8%	57	-1.8	162/241/257	94	310	8	0	46%	9%	38	-0.8
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	36	39→40	51→50	40	181/244/269	88	257	7	13	31%	6%	46	-2.6	196/262/273	77	311	7	10	36%	7%	53	-2.1	190/263/263	73	291	8	10	35%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Justin Twine 2016 · A	20	36→33	38→40	48→50	29	179/209/257	78	263	5	7	34%	2%	28	-3.9	191/230/268	77	296	5	8	36%	3%	39	-3.1	216/252/305	89	320	6	14	33%	3%	54	-1.1
✕Luis Pino 2024 · A	20	38→29	40	49→50	38	179/265/271	92	308	8	9	41%	8%	55	-1.9	182/262/282	100	313	9	8	41%	8%	56	-1.9	162/248/261	100	271	9	8	40%	8%	45	-1.2
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2023 · A	20	37→24	37→45	51→60	38	178/236/254	76	272	4	10	34%	6%	38	-3.2	159/221/246	87	248	8	13	37%	6%	32	-3.7	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Dennys Riera 2024 · A	19	31	36→40	48→50	42	157/222/222	65	212	4	6	27%	6%	27	-4.0	171/249/237	66	229	3	7	25%	6%	41	-3.0	156/245/214	58	204	3	7	23%	6%	36	-0.9
✕Carlos Pacheco 2019 · A	20	33	38→40	45→50	42	164/238/238	74	255	6	9	36%	8%	36	-3.3	186/243/271	85	320	7	9	41%	7%	45	-2.7	155/211/244	89	272	9	10	44%	6%	26	-1.3
✕Franklin Hernandez 2007 · A	20	40→36	36→45	45→40	42	189/246/257	68	265	3	5	28%	7%	43	-2.8	193/237/276	83	291	5	4	34%	5%	44	-2.8	183/219/273	90	269	6	2	33%	3%	33	-1.7
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Romer Cuadrado 2017 · A	19	37→36	38→40	45	43	180/251/257	77	267	6	8	33%	8%	46	-2.6	202/259/294	92	320	8	7	37%	6%	57	-1.8	197/253/289	92	311	8	5	37%	6%	51	-1.5
✕Ronny Brito 2018 · A	19	36	38→45	50	39	174/236/254	80	268	5	10	35%	7%	39	-3.1	201/250/308	107	346	11	5	42%	6%	57	-1.8	161/214/283	122	296	17	1	49%	6%	37	-1.2
✕Anderson De Los Santos 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	43→50	40	192/247/282	89	269	7	8	30%	6%	49	-2.4	183/261/280	97	274	9	12	34%	9%	55	-1.9	173/266/275	101	253	10	13	33%	10%	53	-1.5