Luis Pino
CF Peoria Chiefs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A/ROKSTL | 148 | .270/.363/.437 | 4 | 3 | 53 | — | .191/.261/.306 |
| 2025 | 21 | ASTL | 413 | .200/.328/.336 | 9 | 7 | 40 | — | .152/.253/.257 |
| 2026 | 22 | AA/A+/ASTL | 253 | .219/.327/.349 | 4 | 8 | 47 | — | .173/.259/.272 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBSTL | 1 | .161/.248/.254 | 0 | 0 | 44 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBSTL | 71 | .167/.254/.269 | 1 | 1 | 50 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 174 | 146 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 247 | 364 | 418 | 782 | 171 | 337 | 30 | 10 | 353 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 112 | 97 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 216 | 321 | 361 | 682 | 144 | 305 | 31 | 11 | 313 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 78 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 205 | 374 | 346 | 720 | 141 | 304 | 31 | 14 | 336 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 58 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 224 | 278 | 502 | 93 | 300 | 40 | 5 | 225 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | FCL Cardinals | — | 90 | 72 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 333 | 455 | 556 | 1.010 | 222 | 429 | 24 | 13 | 436 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 413 | 345 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 54 | 129 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 328 | 336 | 665 | 136 | 287 | 31 | 13 | 308 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA | Springfield Cardinals | — | 24 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 250 | 100 | 350 | 154 | 29 | 17 | 192 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Peoria Chiefs | — | 165 | 139 | 34 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 360 | 424 | 784 | 180 | 309 | 24 | 15 | 350 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 64 | 56 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 196 | 270 | 250 | 520 | 54 | 333 | 38 | 6 | 240 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 174 | 151 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 152 | 260 | 238 | 499 | 86 | 216 | 35 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 112 | 101 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 139 | 223 | 228 | 451 | 89 | 237 | 45 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 83 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 133 | 273 | 205 | 478 | 72 | 242 | 45 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 58 | 56 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 155 | 196 | 352 | 71 | 260 | 55 | 3 | 144 | -16 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 90 | 77 | 18 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 234 | 330 | 377 | 706 | 143 | 330 | 34 | 8 | 313 | 98 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 413 | 362 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 176 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 152 | 253 | 257 | 510 | 105 | 255 | 43 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | AA MLE | Springfield Cardinals | — | 24 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 95 | 208 | 95 | 304 | 147 | 38 | 12 | 152 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Peoria Chiefs | — | 165 | 146 | 29 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 50 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 199 | 287 | 336 | 622 | 137 | 268 | 30 | 10 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 64 | 58 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 138 | 206 | 172 | 379 | 34 | 297 | 52 | 5 | 177 | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 174 | 151 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 152 | 260 | 238 | 499 | 86 | 227 | 35 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 174 | 146 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 52 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 247 | 364 | 418 | 782 | 171 | 337 | 30 | 10 | 353 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 112 | 101 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 139 | 223 | 228 | 451 | 89 | 245 | 45 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Cardinals | — | 112 | 97 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 35 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 216 | 321 | 361 | 682 | 144 | 305 | 31 | 11 | 313 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 83 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 133 | 273 | 205 | 478 | 72 | 263 | 45 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 78 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 205 | 374 | 346 | 720 | 141 | 304 | 31 | 14 | 336 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 148 | 133 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 63 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 188 | 260 | 301 | 561 | 113 | 319 | 43 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 148 | 126 | 34 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 45 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 270 | 363 | 437 | 800 | 167 | 380 | 30 | 10 | 353 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 413 | 362 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 176 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 152 | 253 | 257 | 510 | 105 | 265 | 43 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 413 | 345 | 69 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 54 | 129 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 200 | 328 | 336 | 665 | 136 | 287 | 31 | 13 | 308 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 253 | 225 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 91 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 173 | 259 | 271 | 530 | 98 | 271 | 36 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 253 | 215 | 47 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 70 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 219 | 327 | 349 | 676 | 130 | 301 | 28 | 13 | 307 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Cardinals Blue | — | 174 | 150 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 153 | 260 | 240 | 500 | 87 | 216 | 35 | 7 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 112 | 100 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 140 | 223 | 230 | 453 | 90 | 237 | 45 | 7 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Cardinals | — | 100 | 84 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 131 | 273 | 202 | 475 | 71 | 242 | 45 | 9 | 227 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 148 | 134 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 63 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 187 | 260 | 299 | 559 | 112 | 303 | 43 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 413 | 361 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 176 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 152 | 253 | 258 | 511 | 105 | 255 | 43 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 253 | 225 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 91 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 173 | 259 | 271 | 530 | 98 | 264 | 36 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 148 | 134 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 63 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 187 | 260 | 299 | 559 | 112 | 303 | 43 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Palm Beach Cardinals | — | 413 | 361 | 55 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 176 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 152 | 253 | 258 | 511 | 105 | 255 | 43 | 9 | 228 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 253 | 225 | 39 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 91 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 173 | 259 | 271 | 530 | 98 | 264 | 36 | 9 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | STL | 0% | 363 | 322 | 51 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 32 | 129 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 160 | 248 | 255 | 502 | 95 | 243 | 36 | 9 | 234 | 44 | -24 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB CTX | STL | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 248 | 254 | 502 | 93 | 245 | 0 | 0 | 233 | 44 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | STL | 30% | 234 | 207 | 35 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 81 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 167 | 254 | 271 | 525 | 104 | 247 | 35 | 9 | 243 | 50 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | STL | 30% | 71 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 167 | 254 | 269 | 523 | 101 | 249 | 35 | 8 | 242 | 50 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 71 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 172 | 254 | 266 | 519 | 94 | 263 | 35 | 8 | 242 | 43 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 586 | 100 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 55 | 229 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 171 | 252 | 263 | 515 | 92 | 261 | 35 | 8 | 242 | 43 | -38 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1615 | 1422 | 228 | 54 | 5 | 26 | 135 | 631 | 46 | 35 | 12 | 160 | 255 | 260 | 515 | 100 | 261 | 39 | 8 | 231 | 43 | -26 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +9 | -1.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 572 | 92 | 22 | 2 | 10 | 54 | 254 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 161 | 256 | 259 | 515 | 98 | 263 | 39 | 8 | 231 | 43 | -40 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Peoria Chiefs · 165 PAwOBA .344 → .274 (−70)K% 23.6% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.02% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 10.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 16.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 8.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.24% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .344 → .274; ISO .180 → .142; BABIP .309 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 64 PAwOBA .238 → .177 (−61)K% 37.5% → 51.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 51.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | — | 23.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | — | 7.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .238 → .177; ISO .054 → .038; BABIP .333 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AASpringfield Cardinals · 24 PAwOBA .188 → .152 (−37)K% 29.2% → 35.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.17% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 12.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 14.75% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .188 → .152; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .154 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 APalm Beach Cardinals · 413 PAwOBA .300 → .228 (−72)K% 31.2% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.59% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.91% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.44% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 17.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.896 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 6.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.93% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷0.973 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.48% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 99, 2B 79, 3B 80, K 100, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .300 → .228; ISO .136 → .104; BABIP .287 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKFCL Cardinals · 90 PAwOBA .434 → .313 (−122)K% 24.4% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.44% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.33% | ÷1.043 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.89% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.44% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 22.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 9.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.935 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 4.77% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 100, 2B 103, 3B 87, K 104, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .434 → .313; ISO .222 → .164; BABIP .429 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 APalm Beach Cardinals · 58 PAwOBA .219 → .144 (−75)K% 39.7% → 55.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 39.66% | ÷0.968 | ×1.360 | — | — | 55.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.17% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 3.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷1.040 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 20.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.153 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 4.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.946 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.23% | ÷1.036 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.57% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 108, 2B 131, 3B 89, K 94, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .219 → .144; ISO .093 → .054; BABIP .300 → .260. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Cardinals · 100 PAwOBA .332 → .227 (−105)K% 31.0% → 44.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 44.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 5.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×1.008 | 16.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×1.008 | 7.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.34% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .332 → .227; ISO .141 → .095; BABIP .304 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKFCL Cardinals · 112 PAwOBA .305 → .197 (−108)K% 31.2% → 44.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.25% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 44.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.71% | ÷0.976 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 1.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.97% | ÷1.021 | ×0.820 | ×1.006 | ×1.022 | 17.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷1.074 | ×0.720 | ×1.006 | ×1.022 | 5.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.006 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.84% | ÷1.127 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 3.42% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 104, 2B 115, 3B 100, K 101, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .305 → .197; ISO .144 → .085; BABIP .305 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).