Yander Bonaci
P
DSL Red Sox Blue
+0.2
WAR
Age 19
LHP
5'11" / 162 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.5 · 2031
ERA4.43
FIP4.43
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.7%
BB%9.6%
K-BB%13.1%
IP29
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Red | 15 | 0 | 25 | 107 | 33 | 15 | 2 | 21.0% | 17.5% | 2.8% | 4.26 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Blue | 12 | 2 | 39 | 173 | 44 | 15 | 3 | 17.3% | 10.8% | 2.9% | 2.54 | 4.59 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | BOS | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 3.0% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | BOS | 31 | — | 31 | 130 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | BOS | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 32 | 12 | 4 | 23.6% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 24.5% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 37 | 12 | 4 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 25.7% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.89 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 26.3% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.77 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 26.3% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.76 | 3.75 | +0.5 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 151 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 26.3% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.78 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 39 | 12 | 4 | 26.2% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.80 | 3.82 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 37 | 11 | 4 | 26.0% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 3.85 | 3.88 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 36 | 11 | 4 | 25.7% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 3.92 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | BOS | 31 | — | 31 | 133 | 34 | 11 | 4 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 3.99 | 4.04 | +0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 27 | 2 | 64 | 280 | 52 | 38 | 8 | 18.7% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 4.78 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 84 | 6 | 200 | 870 | 162 | 118 | 25 | 18.7% | 13.4% | 2.8% | 3.22 | 4.78 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yander Bonaci (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.43 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 3.0% | — | 4.17 | 23.8% | 15.0% | 97 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.29 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .324 | 2.64 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.65 | 1.89 | 108 | 89 |
| Osvaldo Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.57 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .324 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 142 | -0.22 | 3.11 | 312 | 88 |
| Blake Townsend L 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.97 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.98 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.01 | 3.33 | 200 | 87 |
| Denny Bentley L 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 86 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2028 · 3.97 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.97 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.2% | .347 | 4.00 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.03 | 3.74 | 572 | 84 |
| Javier Chacon L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 19 | SU | 5.18 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 4.2% | .295 | 4.62 | 20.3% | 3.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.55 | 135 | 83 |
| Josh Hendrickson L 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.81 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .250 | 4.70 | 19.3% | 10.9% | 110 | +0.89 | 3.81 | 255 | 83 |
| Johan Simon L 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.44 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.06 | 3.44 | 123 | 83 |
| James Gonzalez L 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.47 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .327 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 91 | +1.40 | 2.31 | 414 | 83 |
| Fabian Blanco L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.28 | 18.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .368 | 4.05 | 16.9% | 1.3% | 74 | -0.23 | 3.57 | 215 | 83 |
| Eudis Idrogo L 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.37 | 19.4% | 8.0% | 1.6% | .236 | 3.85 | 13.5% | 7.7% | 319 | +0.48 | 3.37 | 364 | 82 |
| Ryan Rolison L 2028 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.88 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 2.6% | .200 | 4.33 | 19.1% | 11.5% | 191 | +0.45 | 3.86 | 327 | 82 |
| Brock Selvidge L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.66 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .321 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 287 | +0.14 | 3.08 | 330 | 81 |
| Sam Hentges L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 192 | -0.37 | 2.31 | 576 | 81 |
| Ethan Lindow L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.33 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 2.97 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 111 | -1.36 | 2.97 | 435 | 81 |
| Ronnie Glenn L 2029 · 3.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.47 | 20.9% | 9.9% | 1.6% | .330 | 5.04 | 11.1% | -2.6% | 171 | +1.57 | 3.47 | 212 | 81 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.27 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.33 | 18.5% | 2.8% | 214 | +1.06 | 4.27 | 239 | 81 |
| Denny Roman L 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.24 | 25.6% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .348 | 5.50 | 15.7% | -1.0% | 21 | +2.26 | 3.24 | 109 | 81 |
| Frankeli Arias L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.73 | 16.9% | 7.5% | 2.0% | .281 | 5.02 | 15.8% | 3.5% | 214 | +1.29 | 3.73 | 263 | 81 |
| Nick Dombkowski L 2029 · 4.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.42 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.6% | .208 | 4.74 | 16.8% | 7.4% | 223 | +0.32 | 3.67 | 331 | 80 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.5 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $10M | +$6M | ||