Yander Bonaci — OGILVIE

Yander Bonaci P FCL Red Sox

Age 19 LHP 5'11" / 162 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 109117vR 125

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%20.9%

BB%11.9%

K-BB%9.1%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	15	0	25	107	33	15	2	0%	1.7	21.0%	17.5%	3.4%	2.7%	4.26	5.06	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	15	0	25	107	33	15	2	0%	1.7	21.0%	17.5%	3.4%	2.7%	4.26	5.06	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	15	0	25	107	33	15	2	0%	1.7	30.8%	14.0%	16.8%	1.9%	4.26	3.30	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	2	39	173	44	15	3	17%	3.2	17.3%	10.8%	6.5%	2.6%	2.54	4.46	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	2	39	173	44	15	3	17%	3.2	17.3%	10.8%	6.5%	2.6%	2.54	4.46	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	12	2	39	173	44	15	3	17%	3.2	25.4%	8.7%	16.8%	1.7%	2.54	3.00	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	19	0	21	105	23	15	1	0%	1.1	17.4%	18.3%	-0.9%	1.7%	5.66	4.88	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Salem RidgeYaks	19	0	21	105	23	15	1	0%	1.1	17.4%	18.3%	-0.9%	1.7%	5.66	4.88	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	BOS	15	0	16	82	21	12	1	0%	1.1	25.6%	14.6%	11.0%	1.2%	4.41	3.46	—
2026	19	A RAW	BOS	4	0	4	23	2	3	0	0%	1.1	8.7%	13.0%	-4.3%	0.0%	10.38	4.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BOS	35	0	37	156	34	17	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.70	4.64	-0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	BOS	17	0	18	76	16	8	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.70	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	77	17	8	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.70	4.26	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	88	22	0%	1.1	21.6%	10.8%	10.7%	2.9%	4.70	4.26	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		46	2	85	385	71	57	9	4%	1.8	18.3%	14.7%	3.6%	2.4%	3.81	4.74	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	5	200	906	166	133	22	4%	1.8	18.3%	14.7%	3.6%	2.4%	3.81	4.74	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yander Bonaci (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	20.9%	11.9%	3.0%	—	4.64	21.6%	10.7%	37	-0.21	—	—	—
Denny Bentley L 2018 · 4.85 FIP	20	SU	4.85	19.6%	10.3%	3.8%	.318	2.88	25.4%	10.3%	58	-1.97	2.88	175	87
Yokelvin Reyes L 2023 · 3.94 FIP	19	SU	3.94	20.1%	12.8%	1.7%	.293	4.48	16.0%	4.1%	166	+0.54	3.50	221	86
Fabian Blanco L 2017 · 4.28 FIP	19	SU	4.28	18.8%	9.9%	2.8%	.368	4.05	16.9%	1.3%	74	-0.23	3.57	215	85
Anfernny Reyes L 2023 · 4.98 FIP	19	SU	4.98	21.6%	13.6%	3.6%	.282	4.34	21.0%	1.8%	99	-0.64	2.89	175	84
Vance Tatum L 2016 · 5.04 FIP	21	SU	5.04	17.2%	9.7%	3.9%	.319	5.06	15.6%	2.3%	85	+0.02	4.90	116	83
Keylan Killgore L 2019 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	161	81
Drew Harrington L 2016 · 4.18 FIP	21	SU	4.18	15.7%	9.6%	2.1%	.295	4.14	12.5%	5.4%	175	-0.04	3.17	190	80
Jonathan Hennigan L 2017 · 4.08 FIP	22	SU	4.08	22.0%	13.6%	2.0%	.341	3.57	17.5%	5.8%	119	-0.51	3.46	265	80
Daniel Juarez L 2019 · 4.45 FIP	18	SU	4.45	24.9%	14.7%	2.9%	.389	4.24	26.5%	9.0%	68	-0.21	3.68	221	80
Felix Carvallo L 2015 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	17.1%	9.8%	3.0%	.323	4.60	17.7%	4.7%	67	+0.04	4.56	132	79
Zach Matson L 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	14.4%	10.9%	2.0%	.319	4.72	25.2%	10.0%	68	+0.33	4.39	187	79
Gregori Louis L 2022 · 5.03 FIP	19	SU	5.03	25.4%	13.1%	4.4%	.364	4.96	19.1%	2.9%	89	-0.07	3.58	149	79
Johnathan Frebis L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	17.0%	9.4%	1.8%	.245	4.24	9.7%	-0.6%	124	+0.43	3.81	146	78
James Ziemba L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	22	SU	3.73	18.3%	12.5%	1.1%	.309	5.16	11.7%	-0.7%	78	+1.43	3.73	110	78
Chase Watkins L 2022 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	20.6%	11.8%	1.7%	.346	4.34	17.7%	9.0%	156	+0.59	3.30	232	77
Nick Dombkowski L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SU	4.48	21.3%	8.8%	3.7%	.208	4.72	16.6%	7.5%	223	+0.24	3.71	420	77
Jake Higginbotham L 2018 · 5.15 FIP	22	SU	5.15	17.2%	10.6%	3.9%	.256	4.77	18.8%	6.4%	59	-0.38	3.30	335	77
Harold Melenge L 2021 · 4.55 FIP	19	SU	4.55	17.3%	12.7%	2.4%	.297	3.44	16.4%	10.2%	89	-1.11	2.69	238	77
Will Mabrey L 2023 · 4.27 FIP	22	SU	4.27	18.5%	12.6%	2.1%	.256	4.27	19.2%	6.6%	62	+0.00	4.14	128	77
Franderly Morel L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	19	SU	4.00	13.8%	10.1%	1.4%	.317	5.53	19.4%	6.7%	86	+1.53	3.80	120	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.3%	11.2%	1.14	4.75
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78