Erich Tovar — OGILVIE

Erich Tovar P ACL Guardians

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 8 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128119vR 111

ERA4.97

FIP4.97

K%21.5%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP9

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 8 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	0	15	75	10	11	0	0%	1.4	9.1%	18.3%	-9.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.66	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	0	15	75	10	11	0	0%	1.4	9.1%	18.3%	-9.3%	0.0%	9.00	4.66	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	11	0	15	75	10	11	0	0%	1.4	13.3%	14.7%	-1.3%	0.0%	9.00	3.97	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	6	0	8	43	6	13	0	0%	1.3	14.0%	30.2%	-16.3%	0.0%	2.35	5.75	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Mendoza	6	0	8	43	6	13	0	0%	1.3	14.0%	30.2%	-16.3%	0.0%	2.35	5.75	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Mendoza	6	0	8	43	6	13	0	0%	1.3	14.0%	30.2%	-16.3%	0.0%	2.35	6.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	0	15	66	13	5	0	0%	1.4	13.4%	9.5%	3.9%	0.0%	2.93	3.17	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Guardians	11	0	15	66	13	5	0	0%	1.4	13.4%	9.5%	3.9%	0.0%	2.93	3.17	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	CLE	11	0	15	66	13	5	0	0%	1.4	19.7%	7.6%	12.1%	0.0%	2.93	2.40	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	CLE	19	0	20	84	19	10	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.9%	4.79	4.71	-0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	CLE	10	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.9%	4.79	4.71	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	9	5	1	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.9%	4.79	4.33	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	102	20	0%	1.1	22.1%	11.8%	10.3%	2.9%	4.79	4.33	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		28	0	38	184	22	33	0	0%	1.4	11.8%	17.9%	-6.2%	0.0%	5.21	4.38	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		147	0	200	968	114	174	0	0%	1.4	11.8%	17.9%	-6.2%	0.0%	5.21	4.38	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Erich Tovar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.97	21.5%	13.2%	3.0%	—	4.71	22.1%	10.3%	20	-0.26	—	—	—
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	20	SU	4.14	25.1%	13.3%	2.7%	.327	3.29	23.8%	13.4%	81	-0.85	3.21	104	87
Aneudy Duarte R 2017 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.4%	13.5%	2.1%	.320	4.79	17.1%	5.4%	34	+0.53	4.26	102	86
Luis Alvarado R 2018 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.16	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.08	4.89	162	86
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	86
Max Gieg R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	21	SU	5.10	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.65	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.45	3.98	149	86
Yordin Chalas R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	19	SU	4.56	17.3%	10.6%	2.9%	.294	3.92	19.9%	7.8%	116	-0.64	3.67	140	85
Evan Phillips R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	20	SU	3.96	21.4%	13.7%	1.7%	.300	3.85	22.0%	10.7%	177	-0.11	1.52	517	85
Francisco Frias R 2023 · 5.74 FIP	18	SU	5.74	20.8%	14.1%	4.8%	.294	4.83	19.2%	2.2%	134	-0.91	4.00	148	85
Kyle Hinton R 2018 · 4.17 FIP	21	SU	4.17	23.5%	15.0%	2.1%	.275	5.69	17.7%	-0.7%	75	+1.52	4.17	106	85
Michael Brewer R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	20	SU	4.30	23.7%	16.2%	2.1%	.303	4.69	19.7%	6.3%	114	+0.39	3.14	144	85
Troy Bacon R 2017 · 3.92 FIP	20	SU	3.92	19.9%	11.7%	1.9%	.222	4.06	19.7%	10.8%	102	+0.14	3.34	203	85
Ty Tice R 2017 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	22.2%	12.9%	2.6%	.271	3.53	19.4%	8.3%	108	-0.76	3.24	288	84
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	408	84
Alejandro Lugo R 2021 · 4.91 FIP	18	SU	4.91	20.4%	16.7%	2.6%	.265	4.96	16.7%	3.1%	98	+0.05	3.77	159	84
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	83
Chase Ingram R 2015 · 4.11 FIP	20	SU	4.11	23.2%	15.8%	1.8%	.244	4.14	15.8%	3.0%	154	+0.03	4.04	174	83
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	82
Harold Cortijo R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.64	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.18	4.15	179	82
Devon Fisher R 2016 · 4.39 FIP	20	SU	4.39	16.5%	12.5%	2.0%	.333	5.76	15.1%	0.9%	88	+1.37	4.39	102	82
Jose Diaz R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SU	3.97	17.9%	10.4%	1.9%	.326	5.52	19.2%	1.1%	64	+1.55	3.91	189	82