Stiven Rogers — OGILVIE

Stiven Rogers P DSL Arizona Red

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 170 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133124vR 116

ERA5.23

FIP5.23

K%16.5%

BB%12.0%

K-BB%4.5%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	3	32	163	31	16	3	27%	2.9	12.9%	12.3%	0.7%	2.9%	7.52	5.13	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	11	3	32	163	31	16	3	27%	2.9	12.9%	12.3%	0.7%	2.9%	7.52	5.13	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	11	3	32	163	31	16	3	27%	2.9	19.0%	9.8%	9.2%	1.8%	7.52	3.87	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	5	5	20	93	18	14	1	100%	3.9	13.2%	18.8%	-5.7%	1.3%	7.32	5.10	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	5	5	20	93	18	14	1	100%	3.9	13.2%	18.8%	-5.7%	1.3%	7.32	5.10	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	5	5	20	93	18	14	1	100%	3.9	19.4%	15.1%	4.3%	1.1%	7.32	4.07	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	13	3	40	173	20	15	3	23%	3.1	7.9%	10.8%	-3.0%	2.4%	5.40	5.14	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	13	3	40	173	20	15	3	23%	3.1	7.9%	10.8%	-3.0%	2.4%	5.40	5.14	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	13	3	40	173	20	15	3	23%	3.1	11.6%	8.7%	2.9%	1.7%	5.40	4.20	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	ARI	19	0	20	84	14	10	2	0%	1.1	16.5%	12.0%	4.5%	3.0%	5.23	5.23	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	36	0	38	160	29	17	5	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	2.9%	5.00	4.91	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	18	0	19	80	15	9	2	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	2.9%	5.00	4.91	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		18	0	19	78	14	9	2	0%	1.0	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	2.9%	5.00	4.53	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	151	97	22	0%	1.1	18.2%	10.9%	7.3%	2.9%	5.00	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		29	11	92	429	47	56	10	38%	3.2	10.9%	13.1%	-2.2%	2.4%	6.55	5.13	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	24	200	933	102	122	22	38%	3.2	10.9%	13.1%	-2.2%	2.4%	6.55	5.13	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Stiven Rogers (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.23	16.5%	12.0%	3.0%	—	4.91	18.2%	7.3%	38	-0.32	—	—	—
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	90
Julio Goff R 2019 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	16.1%	11.9%	2.8%	.364	4.70	16.4%	5.9%	207	-0.10	4.46	251	86
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	86
Victor Espiritu R 2024 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	14.6%	12.7%	1.8%	.294	4.04	13.5%	1.8%	60	-0.41	3.49	101	84
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	84
Engel Daniel Peralta R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	20	SW	5.28	17.7%	15.0%	3.2%	.300	5.89	16.6%	1.2%	33	+0.61	3.34	129	84
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	84
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	83
Ruben Galindo R 2021 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	15.9%	11.1%	2.8%	.345	3.51	19.0%	7.7%	149	-1.17	2.84	239	83
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	83
Tyler Driver R 2021 · 5.26 FIP	20	SW	5.26	15.0%	13.8%	3.1%	.312	5.68	14.5%	1.4%	88	+0.42	5.17	180	83
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	83
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	83
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	82
Dante Mendoza R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SW	5.90	14.9%	14.1%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	113	82
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	82
Maiker Manuel R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	15.0%	13.2%	1.9%	.278	4.62	15.3%	11.5%	51	+0.06	4.56	148	81
Juan Burgos R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	15.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.292	4.38	17.7%	0.8%	58	-0.37	3.50	284	81
Anderson Cardenas R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	18	SW	4.90	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.235	3.52	22.2%	8.8%	58	-1.38	3.52	129	81
David McKay R 2016 · 4.37 FIP	21	SW	4.37	15.2%	10.2%	2.3%	.282	4.50	22.9%	12.4%	211	+0.13	3.20	288	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	17.6%	11.3%	1.13	5.08
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Jeff Manship ('16)	1.1	32	16.5%	9.3%	1.05	4.82