Franco Zabaleta — OGILVIE

Franco Zabaleta P ACL Athletics

Age 19 LHP 6'2" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 132

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%15.5%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%3.8%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.4M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	5	33	161	39	20	0	45%	3.0	16.5%	15.5%	0.9%	0.0%	5.18	3.68	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	5	33	161	39	20	0	45%	3.0	16.5%	15.5%	0.9%	0.0%	5.18	3.68	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	11	5	33	161	39	20	0	45%	3.0	24.2%	12.4%	11.8%	0.0%	5.18	2.55	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	8	53	198	44	14	0	73%	4.8	15.1%	8.8%	6.3%	0.0%	0.51	2.94	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	8	53	198	44	14	0	73%	4.8	15.1%	8.8%	6.3%	0.0%	0.51	2.94	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	11	8	53	198	44	14	0	73%	4.8	22.2%	7.1%	15.2%	0.0%	0.51	2.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	13	8	50	251	50	31	6	62%	3.8	13.5%	15.4%	-1.9%	3.3%	7.74	5.75	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	ACL Athletics	13	8	50	251	50	31	6	62%	3.8	13.5%	15.4%	-1.9%	3.3%	7.74	5.75	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	OAK	13	8	50	251	50	31	6	62%	3.8	19.9%	12.4%	7.6%	2.4%	7.74	4.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	52	217	37	24	6	100%	6.4	17.0%	11.0%	6.0%	2.7%	5.00	4.94	-0.0
2028	21	MLB MLE	OAK	8	8	54	228	41	24	6	100%	6.8	18.0%	10.5%	7.5%	2.7%	4.85	4.78	+0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	57	240	46	24	6	100%	6.3	19.1%	10.0%	9.2%	2.7%	4.68	4.58	+0.2
2030	23	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	59	249	50	24	7	100%	6.5	20.0%	9.6%	10.3%	2.6%	4.54	4.45	+0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	60	255	52	24	7	100%	6.7	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	2.6%	4.43	4.36	+0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	61	258	54	24	7	100%	6.1	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	2.6%	4.35	4.30	+0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	61	258	54	24	7	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	2.6%	4.31	4.28	+0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	OAK	9	9	60	255	54	24	7	100%	6.7	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.6%	4.32	4.32	+0.4
2027	20	MLB CTX	OAK	4	4	25	106	18	12	3	100%	6.2	17.0%	11.0%	6.0%	2.7%	4.96	4.90	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	OAK	6	6	39	165	30	17	4	100%	6.5	18.0%	10.5%	7.5%	2.6%	4.81	4.74	+0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	OAK	7	7	48	203	39	20	5	100%	6.9	19.1%	10.0%	9.2%	2.6%	4.64	4.54	+0.2
2030	23	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	53	224	45	22	6	100%	6.6	20.0%	9.6%	10.3%	2.6%	4.50	4.41	+0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	56	236	49	22	6	100%	6.2	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	2.5%	4.39	4.32	+0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	57	241	50	22	6	100%	6.3	20.9%	9.3%	11.6%	2.5%	4.31	4.26	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	58	245	52	23	6	100%	6.4	21.1%	9.2%	11.9%	2.5%	4.27	4.24	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	57	241	51	22	6	100%	6.3	21.1%	9.3%	11.8%	2.6%	4.28	4.28	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	394	1663	333	161	43	100%	6.5	20.0%	9.7%	10.4%	2.6%	4.47	4.04	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	169	82	22	100%	6.4	20.0%	9.7%	10.4%	2.6%	4.47	4.04	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		35	21	136	610	90	81	8	60%	3.9	14.8%	13.3%	1.5%	1.4%	4.31	4.29	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	31	200	899	133	120	12	60%	3.9	14.8%	13.3%	1.5%	1.4%	4.31	4.29	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Franco Zabaleta (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	15.5%	11.7%	2.8%	—	4.76	18.1%	7.6%	162	-0.42	—	—	—
Gabriel Agostini L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	13.5%	12.4%	2.9%	.246	5.63	9.5%	-16.8%	12	+0.49	1.97	122	87
Colin Schmid L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SP-	4.81	11.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.298	4.10	15.2%	5.7%	125	-0.71	3.24	191	86
Juan Sanchez L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	18	SP-	4.49	14.2%	13.3%	1.7%	.333	3.36	24.3%	13.2%	103	-1.13	3.07	345	84
Wilker Reyes L 2021 · 4.23 FIP	19	SP-	4.23	13.4%	11.3%	1.5%	.341	4.32	18.0%	4.2%	120	+0.09	3.76	237	84
Wilgenis Alvarado L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	19	SP-	4.88	10.5%	11.0%	2.3%	.289	5.43	14.8%	-3.3%	80	+0.55	4.70	122	82
Luis Guzman L 2015 · 4.81 FIP	19	SP-	4.81	11.7%	14.0%	1.7%	.307	4.41	14.7%	8.8%	59	-0.40	4.41	116	80
Sam Hentges L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	19	SP-	4.34	18.5%	10.9%	2.6%	.333	3.99	18.9%	7.4%	192	-0.35	2.22	609	80
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	80
Jacob Heatherly L 2017 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	11.6%	13.8%	2.3%	.315	6.27	18.1%	-9.1%	39	+1.13	4.47	192	80
Didier Vargas L 2018 · 4.46 FIP	19	SP-	4.46	13.2%	14.1%	1.3%	.316	4.48	15.8%	7.1%	60	+0.02	3.58	286	79
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	79
Gabriel Reyes L 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	14.0%	8.0%	2.0%	.347	3.96	19.3%	9.7%	144	-0.07	1.74	233	78
Alejandro Mejia L 2017 · 4.09 FIP	19	SP-	4.09	13.0%	13.3%	0.7%	.267	6.73	7.1%	-9.4%	56	+2.64	4.09	101	78
Kyle Twomey L 2016 · 4.07 FIP	22	SP-	4.07	17.6%	10.5%	2.1%	.298	3.96	14.8%	6.9%	68	-0.11	3.96	141	78
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	78
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	78
Sonny Vargas L 2019 · 4.31 FIP	18	SW	4.31	15.8%	10.2%	2.3%	.370	4.54	21.0%	10.9%	54	+0.23	3.20	165	77
José Lopez L 2018 · 4.19 FIP	19	SP-	4.19	12.3%	10.7%	1.4%	.292	4.40	19.7%	5.8%	66	+0.21	2.76	233	77
Daritzon Feliz L 2019 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	15.5%	9.3%	2.9%	.356	6.30	16.5%	2.6%	53	+1.73	4.42	186	77
Deyer Zapata L 2022 · 4.25 FIP	18	SP	4.25	18.8%	14.3%	1.7%	.309	5.18	17.5%	4.0%	50	+0.93	3.77	130	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	55	19.5%	9.9%	1.02	4.59
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93