Franco Zabaleta
P
DSL Athletics
+0.2
WAR
Age 19
LHP
6'2" / 165 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.8 · 2031
ERA4.33
FIP4.33
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.2%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.7%
IP46
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2031
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 11 | 5 | 33 | 161 | 39 | 20 | 0 | 16.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% | 5.18 | 3.68 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Athletics | 11 | 8 | 53 | 198 | 44 | 14 | 0 | 15.1% | 8.8% | 0.0% | 0.51 | 2.94 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | OAK | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 43 | 18 | 5 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.33 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | OAK | 48 | — | 48 | 204 | 46 | 19 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.22 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | OAK | 51 | — | 51 | 214 | 50 | 19 | 6 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 4.18 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | OAK | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 54 | 19 | 6 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 3.96 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | OAK | 55 | — | 55 | 233 | 58 | 19 | 6 | 24.8% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 3.93 | 3.85 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | OAK | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 61 | 19 | 6 | 25.3% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 3.76 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | OAK | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 62 | 19 | 6 | 25.7% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.70 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | OAK | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 63 | 19 | 6 | 25.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.68 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 62 | 19 | 6 | 25.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.70 | 3.69 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 61 | 18 | 6 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 3.71 | 3.72 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 60 | 18 | 6 | 25.7% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.74 | 3.76 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 53 | — | 53 | 225 | 57 | 18 | 6 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 3.82 | +0.7 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 55 | 17 | 6 | 25.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 3.86 | 3.90 | +0.6 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 49 | — | 49 | 208 | 52 | 17 | 6 | 25.0% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 22 | 13 | 86 | 359 | 56 | 42 | 0 | 15.7% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 2.31 | 3.27 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 30 | 200 | 838 | 131 | 98 | 0 | 15.7% | 11.8% | 0.0% | 2.31 | 3.27 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Franco Zabaleta (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.33 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.10 | 23.3% | 14.6% | 152 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Sam Hentges L 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.34 | 18.5% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 3.97 | 18.9% | 7.4% | 192 | -0.37 | 2.31 | 576 | 89 |
| Brock Selvidge L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.66 | 19.9% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .321 | 3.80 | 17.8% | 7.6% | 287 | +0.14 | 3.08 | 330 | 88 |
| Ethan Lindow L 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.33 | 19.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .329 | 2.97 | 19.8% | 14.0% | 111 | -1.36 | 2.97 | 435 | 87 |
| Fabian Blanco L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.28 | 18.8% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .368 | 4.05 | 16.9% | 1.3% | 74 | -0.23 | 3.57 | 215 | 87 |
| Denny Bentley L 2027 · 4.85 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.85 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .318 | 2.88 | 25.4% | 10.3% | 58 | -1.97 | 2.88 | 175 | 87 |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.29 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .324 | 2.64 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.65 | 1.89 | 108 | 87 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.27 | 19.7% | 13.0% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.33 | 18.5% | 2.8% | 214 | +1.06 | 4.27 | 239 | 87 |
| Johan Simon L 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.44 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.06 | 3.44 | 123 | 86 |
| Frankeli Arias L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.73 | 16.9% | 7.5% | 2.0% | .281 | 5.02 | 15.8% | 3.5% | 214 | +1.29 | 3.73 | 263 | 86 |
| Javier Chacon L 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 19 | SU | 5.18 | 22.5% | 13.1% | 4.2% | .295 | 4.62 | 20.3% | 3.5% | 94 | -0.56 | 4.55 | 135 | 85 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2028 · 4.64 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.64 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.4% | .286 | 3.46 | 17.0% | 8.3% | 142 | -1.18 | 2.95 | 186 | 85 |
| Wilkin Paredes L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.13 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .353 | 5.01 | 11.5% | 3.4% | 198 | +0.88 | 4.13 | 244 | 85 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 85 |
| Osvaldo Hernandez L 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.57 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .324 | 3.35 | 15.0% | 7.7% | 142 | -0.22 | 3.11 | 312 | 85 |
| Yokelvin Reyes L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.03 | 20.1% | 12.8% | 1.8% | .293 | 4.19 | 15.2% | 3.6% | 86 | +0.16 | 3.50 | 140 | 84 |
| Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 19.2% | 12.0% | 0.9% | .284 | 3.97 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 88 | +0.48 | 3.49 | 131 | 84 |
| Vance Tatum L 2028 · 5.04 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.04 | 17.2% | 9.7% | 3.9% | .319 | 5.07 | 15.6% | 2.3% | 85 | +0.03 | 4.89 | 116 | 84 |
| Bodi Rascon L 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.25 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.27 | 15.7% | 3.9% | 143 | +1.02 | 4.25 | 218 | 84 |
| Connor Curlis L 2028 · 3.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.49 | 19.3% | 10.8% | 1.2% | .306 | 6.07 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 172 | +2.58 | 3.49 | 309 | 84 |
| James Gonzalez L 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.47 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .327 | 4.87 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 91 | +1.40 | 2.31 | 414 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $16M | +$12M | ||