José Lopez — OGILVIE

José Lopez P Durham Bulls

Age 27 LHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 104112vR 120

ERA4.57

FIP4.57

K%21.4%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%11.3%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 2 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

FB-0.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2017	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays 2	15	4	38	166	38	28	1	27%	2.5	15.6%	21.1%	-5.5%	0.8%	3.08	4.92	—
2017	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays 2	15	4	38	166	38	28	1	27%	2.5	22.9%	16.9%	6.0%	0.6%	3.08	3.65	—
2018	19	ROK MLE	GCL Rays	11	7	43	199	36	17	2	64%	3.9	12.3%	10.7%	1.6%	1.4%	2.28	4.19	—
2018	19	ROK RAW	GCL Rays	11	7	43	199	36	17	2	64%	3.9	18.1%	8.5%	9.5%	1.0%	2.28	3.22	—
2021	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	10	75	330	83	39	7	37%	2.8	19.7%	13.9%	5.8%	2.2%	5.06	4.40	—
2021	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	10	75	330	83	39	7	37%	2.8	25.2%	11.8%	13.3%	2.1%	5.06	3.66	—
2022	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	59	252	95	37	1	0%	1.4	31.4%	15.9%	15.5%	0.5%	2.43	2.76	—
2022	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	59	252	95	37	1	0%	1.4	37.7%	14.7%	23.0%	0.4%	2.43	1.99	—
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	32	154	34	20	3	4%	1.1	18.4%	11.9%	6.6%	2.0%	7.67	4.15	+0.1
2023	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	1	32	154	34	20	3	4%	1.1	18.4%	11.9%	6.6%	2.0%	7.67	4.15	+0.1
2023	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	1	32	154	34	20	3	4%	1.1	22.1%	13.0%	9.1%	1.9%	7.67	4.08	+0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			1	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	2.0	20.0%	10.0%	10.0%	0.0%	4.50	2.60	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	27	MLB	TB	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.4%	10.1%	11.3%	3.0%	4.57	4.57	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	TB	19	0	20	84	18	9	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.1%	4.60	4.63	-0.0
2027	28	MLB CTX	TB	9	0	9	38	8	4	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	10.2%	11.3%	3.1%	4.60	4.63	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	11	46	10	5	1	0%	1.2	21.2%	10.1%	11.0%	2.4%	4.58	3.91	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		173	0	200	874	190	95	19	0%	1.2	21.2%	10.1%	11.0%	2.4%	4.58	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		123	22	247	1101	223	160	16	18%	2.0	20.2%	14.6%	5.7%	1.4%	3.97	4.03	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	18	200	891	180	130	13	18%	2.0	20.2%	14.6%	5.7%	1.4%	3.97	4.03	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Lopez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.57	21.4%	10.1%	3.0%	—	4.63	21.5%	11.3%	20	+0.06	—	—	—
Juan Grullon L 2016 · 4.64 FIP	26	SU	4.64	19.8%	10.9%	3.3%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.64	134	72
Evan Kravetz L 2023 · 4.62 FIP	26	SU	4.62	20.6%	11.5%	3.3%	.300	5.43	19.5%	8.7%	68	+0.81	2.79	269	72
Ryan Verdugo L 2015 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	19.8%	10.8%	1.5%	.281	3.36	22.7%	17.3%	82	-0.25	3.36	153	72
Bailey Horn L 2023 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	20.7%	10.3%	2.4%	.322	4.62	21.8%	11.1%	110	+0.65	3.96	265	70
Brendan Nail L 2023 · 4.39 FIP	27	SU	4.39	18.9%	10.5%	2.8%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	165	70
Josh D. Smith L 2017 · 4.05 FIP	27	SU	4.05	20.5%	12.6%	2.0%	.306	3.38	23.1%	12.3%	164	-0.67	3.17	335	70
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	69
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	69
Greg Nappo L 2016 · 5.09 FIP	27	SU	5.09	17.2%	10.3%	3.9%	.285	6.26	12.3%	-0.3%	11	+1.17	3.37	144	69
Triston Polley L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	26	SU	4.15	17.8%	8.9%	2.6%	.331	4.53	17.4%	-0.3%	22	+0.38	4.15	151	69
Brad Kuntz L 2018 · 4.10 FIP	26	SU	4.10	20.9%	11.7%	2.4%	.352	—	—	—	—	—	2.35	197	69
David Rollins L 2017 · 5.58 FIP	27	SU	5.58	18.0%	12.1%	4.5%	.260	5.68	15.9%	12.5%	20	+0.10	3.59	132	69
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	69
James Reeves L 2019 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	22.4%	10.3%	2.2%	.226	5.11	27.0%	10.8%	51	+1.37	2.02	280	69
Jeremy Horst L 2015 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	18.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.291	3.71	15.1%	2.7%	48	-0.38	3.71	108	69
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	69
Brian Moran L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SU	4.50	17.7%	14.1%	2.0%	.318	2.74	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.76	1.80	421	69
Hector Hernandez L 2019 · 3.39 FIP	28	SW	3.39	20.2%	9.0%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	121	69
Zach Muckenhirn L 2022 · 4.26 FIP	27	SU	4.26	21.0%	10.3%	3.0%	.286	4.33	13.5%	5.3%	48	+0.07	2.98	377	68
Bryan Harper L 2016 · 4.13 FIP	26	SU	4.13	19.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.197	4.63	14.9%	1.0%	46	+0.50	4.13	133	68