José Lopez
P
Durham Bulls
Age 27
LHP
6'1" / 200 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100109vR 119
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
K%23.0%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP18
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB-0.9
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 15 | 4 | 38 | 166 | 38 | 28 | 1 | 27% | 2.5 | 15.6% | 21.1% | -5.5% | 0.8% | 3.08 | 4.92 | — |
| 2017 | 18 | ROK | DSL Rays 2 | 15 | 4 | 38 | 166 | 38 | 28 | 1 | 27% | 2.5 | 22.9% | 16.9% | 6.0% | 0.6% | 3.08 | 3.65 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Rays | 11 | 7 | 43 | 199 | 36 | 17 | 2 | 64% | 3.9 | 12.3% | 10.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.28 | 4.19 | — |
| 2018 | 19 | ROK | GCL Rays | 11 | 7 | 43 | 199 | 36 | 17 | 2 | 64% | 3.9 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 1.0% | 2.28 | 3.22 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 10 | 75 | 330 | 83 | 39 | 7 | 37% | 2.8 | 19.7% | 13.9% | 5.8% | 2.1% | 5.06 | 4.37 | — |
| 2021 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 10 | 75 | 330 | 83 | 39 | 7 | 37% | 2.8 | 25.2% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 2.1% | 5.06 | 3.66 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 59 | 252 | 95 | 37 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 31.4% | 15.9% | 15.5% | 0.5% | 2.43 | 2.77 | — |
| 2022 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 59 | 252 | 95 | 37 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 37.7% | 14.7% | 23.0% | 0.4% | 2.43 | 1.99 | — |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 32 | 154 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 4% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 13.9% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 7.67 | 4.19 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 1 | 32 | 154 | 34 | 20 | 3 | 4% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 13.0% | 9.1% | 1.9% | 7.67 | 4.08 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | TB | 17 | 0 | 18 | 75 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 13.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | TB | 9 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.9% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 3.77 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 173 | 0 | 200 | 874 | 190 | 95 | 19 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.3% | 9.8% | 12.4% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 123 | 22 | 247 | 1101 | 225 | 164 | 15 | 18% | 2.0 | 20.4% | 14.9% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 3.97 | 4.03 | +4.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 18 | 200 | 891 | 182 | 132 | 12 | 18% | 2.0 | 20.4% | 14.9% | 5.5% | 1.4% | 3.97 | 4.03 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| José Lopez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 23.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.46 | 22.9% | 13.1% | 20 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.24 | 23.8% | 11.7% | 3.0% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 265 | 72 |
| Andrew Barbosa L 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.30 | 22.8% | 12.2% | 1.1% | .292 | 3.80 | 20.2% | 11.3% | 127 | +0.50 | 2.68 | 175 | 72 |
| Dylan Phillips L 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.01 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.69 | 221 | 71 |
| Juan Grullon L 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.86 | 19.8% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 134 | 70 |
| Chris Nunn L 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.26 | 23.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | .367 | 4.30 | 23.9% | 9.2% | 95 | +1.04 | 3.26 | 180 | 70 |
| Ryan Verdugo L 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.62 | 19.8% | 10.8% | 1.5% | .281 | 3.41 | 22.7% | 17.3% | 82 | -0.21 | 3.41 | 153 | 70 |
| Evan Kravetz L 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.89 | 21.0% | 12.3% | 3.6% | .313 | 7.18 | 19.9% | 6.4% | 19 | +2.29 | 2.80 | 269 | 69 |
| Grant Wolfram L 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.02 | 22.6% | 10.6% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.51 | 24.0% | 15.8% | 87 | -1.51 | 1.87 | 399 | 69 |
| James Reeves L 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.79 | 22.4% | 10.3% | 2.3% | .226 | 5.24 | 27.0% | 10.8% | 51 | +1.45 | 2.02 | 280 | 69 |
| Locke St. John L 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 26.1% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .296 | 4.16 | 21.5% | 10.4% | 108 | +0.20 | 3.02 | 389 | 69 |
| Hector Hernandez L 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.57 | 20.2% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 121 | 69 |
| Giovanni Soto L 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.96 | 25.6% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 128 | 68 |
| Fabian Williamson L 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.46 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.2% | .259 | 5.31 | 16.5% | -3.3% | 54 | +1.85 | 3.46 | 154 | 68 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2027 · 3.84 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.84 | 21.1% | 7.3% | 2.9% | .267 | 3.21 | 23.3% | 15.2% | 73 | -0.63 | 2.44 | 124 | 68 |
| Will Gilbert L 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.26 | 19.9% | 10.3% | 2.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.85 | 141 | 68 |
| A.J. Block L 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.64 | 22.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 203 | 68 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.43 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 165 | 68 |
| Brad Kuntz L 2025 · 4.02 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.02 | 20.9% | 11.7% | 2.2% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 197 | 68 |
| Josh D. Smith L 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.03 | 20.5% | 12.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 3.34 | 23.1% | 12.3% | 164 | -0.69 | 3.09 | 335 | 68 |
| Shinnosuke Ogasawara L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.83 | 16.6% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .308 | 3.98 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 59 | -0.85 | 3.98 | 122 | 68 |