José Fermin — OGILVIE

José Fermin P Los Angeles Angels

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 242 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION67 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.14

FIP4.41

K%27.7%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%14.6%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8196.7

Whiff%

p8030.0%

p7526.9%

xwOBA vs

p440.318

SL (49%)

SI (1%)

FB-2.6 (51%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	66	272	91	28	4	0%	1.7	25.7%	12.0%	13.7%	2.2%	3.15	3.63	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	66	272	91	28	4	0%	1.7	25.7%	12.0%	13.7%	2.2%	3.15	3.63	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	66	272	91	28	4	0%	1.7	33.5%	10.3%	23.2%	1.5%	3.15	2.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	1	54	235	73	28	9	2%	0.9	25.7%	13.8%	11.8%	5.2%	3.64	5.52	-0.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	1	54	235	73	28	9	2%	0.9	25.7%	13.8%	11.8%	5.2%	3.64	5.52	-0.6
2025	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	58	1	54	235	73	28	9	2%	0.9	31.1%	11.9%	19.1%	3.8%	3.64	4.11	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			89	0	85	375	99	43	14	0%	1.0	26.4%	11.5%	14.9%	3.7%	3.69	4.42	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	62	0	67	298	83	32	6	0%	1.1	26.5%	10.4%	16.1%	2.0%	3.09	3.26	+1.0
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	62	0	67	298	83	32	6	0%	1.1	26.5%	10.4%	16.1%	2.0%	3.09	3.26	+1.0
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	LAA	13	0	16	75	23	10	0	0%	1.2	30.7%	13.3%	17.3%	0.0%	2.81	2.20	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	LAA	49	0	51	223	60	22	6	0%	1.0	26.9%	9.9%	17.0%	2.7%	3.18	3.55	+0.6
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	LAA	49	0	51	223	60	22	6	0%	1.0	26.9%	9.9%	17.0%	2.7%	3.18	3.55	+0.6
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAA	6	0	6	27	7	3	1	0%	1.1	27.7%	13.1%	14.6%	3.6%	4.14	4.41	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	LAA	6	0	6	25	7	3	1	0%	1.0	27.7%	13.1%	14.6%	3.6%	4.14	4.41	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	73	325	90	35	7	—	—	27.8%	10.9%	16.9%	2.1%	3.18	3.36	+1.2
FULL	24	MLB A+C	LAA	—	—	57	242	90	35	7	—	—	37.4%	14.7%	22.7%	2.9%	4.07	3.38	+0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	87	0	91	385	108	45	13	0%	1.0	28.0%	11.8%	16.2%	3.4%	4.42	4.48	+0.1
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	87	0	91	385	107	44	13	0%	1.0	27.8%	11.5%	16.3%	3.4%	4.42	4.43	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	85	0	90	379	104	43	13	0%	1.1	27.5%	11.3%	16.1%	3.4%	4.44	4.46	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	83	0	87	367	100	42	13	0%	1.0	27.2%	11.4%	15.8%	3.5%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	79	0	83	351	93	41	13	0%	1.1	26.6%	11.6%	15.0%	3.6%	4.62	4.70	-0.1
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	74	0	78	330	92	37	13	0%	1.1	27.9%	11.1%	16.8%	3.8%	4.63	4.64	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	83	0	87	367	103	43	12	0%	1.0	28.0%	11.8%	16.2%	3.4%	4.42	4.48	+0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	83	0	87	367	102	42	12	0%	1.0	27.8%	11.5%	16.3%	3.4%	4.42	4.43	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	81	0	85	359	99	41	12	0%	1.0	27.5%	11.3%	16.1%	3.4%	4.44	4.46	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	79	0	83	350	95	40	12	0%	1.1	27.2%	11.4%	15.8%	3.5%	4.50	4.54	+0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	75	0	79	334	89	39	12	0%	1.1	26.6%	11.6%	15.0%	3.6%	4.62	4.70	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	70	0	74	312	87	35	12	0%	1.1	27.9%	11.1%	16.8%	3.8%	4.63	4.64	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		566	0	586	2488	680	286	88	0%	1.0	27.3%	11.5%	15.9%	3.5%	4.38	4.19	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		193	0	200	849	232	98	30	0%	1.0	27.3%	11.5%	15.9%	3.5%	4.38	4.19	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		159	1	187	805	209	96	24	1%	1.2	26.0%	11.9%	14.1%	3.0%	3.27	4.04	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		170	1	200	861	224	103	26	1%	1.2	26.0%	11.9%	14.1%	3.0%	3.27	4.04	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Fermin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	28.9%	14.8%	3.8%	—	4.46	27.7%	16.2%	272	-0.53	—	—	—
R.J. Alvarez R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	24	SU	4.79	23.1%	11.3%	4.0%	.348	3.38	22.4%	10.7%	112	-1.41	3.01	302	78
James Sherfy R 2016 · 3.98 FIP	24	SU	3.98	28.7%	10.6%	3.6%	.225	3.14	27.2%	18.1%	164	-0.84	2.64	271	77
José Cisnero R 2016 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.90	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.60	2.26	279	76
Trey Wingenter R 2018 · 3.95 FIP	24	SU	3.95	27.5%	13.5%	2.7%	.240	3.17	33.0%	20.2%	51	-0.78	2.81	293	75
Félix Bautista R 2019 · 4.20 FIP	24	SU	4.20	22.7%	15.2%	2.0%	.299	2.94	33.8%	21.7%	112	-1.26	1.50	334	74
Daniel Palencia R 2023 · 4.18 FIP	23	SU	4.18	24.9%	12.0%	3.0%	.269	3.16	28.3%	18.6%	130	-1.02	2.91	304	73
Jackson Kelley R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SU	3.80	26.5%	13.1%	2.3%	.313	3.65	21.6%	10.7%	165	-0.15	3.21	218	73
Andrew McInvale R 2021 · 4.92 FIP	24	SU	4.92	26.4%	16.3%	3.6%	.278	5.66	20.3%	5.0%	58	+0.74	4.92	103	72
Patrick Ruotolo R 2018 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	27.5%	10.6%	3.9%	.263	3.60	28.9%	25.8%	37	-0.65	3.07	190	71
Dan Altavilla R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	27.6%	10.8%	3.4%	.289	3.58	29.5%	14.9%	86	-0.43	2.88	501	71
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	71
Daysbel Hernández R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	24	SU	4.12	27.6%	13.0%	3.1%	.286	2.64	27.6%	15.9%	74	-1.48	1.89	255	71
Grant Gavin R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	25.6%	11.4%	3.5%	.289	4.40	23.5%	11.2%	130	+0.11	2.14	376	71
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	70
Justin Yeager R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	29.6%	15.8%	3.6%	.230	3.39	19.5%	9.1%	108	-1.19	3.32	262	70
Evan Johnson R 2021 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	28.6%	16.3%	3.1%	.308	4.64	23.6%	6.0%	38	+0.20	4.42	103	70
Ben Hecht R 2019 · 4.51 FIP	24	SU	4.51	22.7%	12.9%	3.1%	.293	7.98	14.1%	-11.4%	13	+3.47	4.39	155	70
Chris Mauloni R 2021 · 4.82 FIP	23	SU	4.82	25.6%	11.5%	4.4%	.333	5.67	17.6%	1.4%	71	+0.85	4.82	129	70
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	70
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	87	27.7%	12.0%	1.37	4.53
Dinelson Lamet ('23)	1.8	61	30.0%	10.7%	1.29	4.66
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04