José Fermin

P Los Angeles Angels

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 242 lbs MLB peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

MLBRP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX3 levels	39	0	66	3.15	2.40	33.5%	10.3%	—	K 25.7% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.63
2025	23	MIX4 levels	58	1	54	3.64	4.11	31.1%	11.9%	0.3	K 25.7% · BB 13.8% · FIP 5.52
2026	24	MIX2 levels	66	0	70	3.62	3.20	27.2%	10.5%	1.1	K 26.1% · BB 10.2% · FIP 3.22
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAA	45	0	47	4.27	4.32	28.9%	12.6%	0.1
2028PROJ90% MLB	26	MLBLAA	41	0	43	4.29	4.30	28.5%	12.2%	0.1
2029PROJ92% MLB	27	MLBLAA	37	0	39	4.32	4.34	28.1%	12.1%	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo79

K%71

xwOBA vs36

Form5.85 ERA (proj 4.27) · K 25.5% (proj 28.9%) · BB 7.4% (proj 12.6%) · last 90d · 20 IP through Oct 27

CompsJames Norwood (age 25) · Dovydas Neverauskas (age 25) · Emilio Pagán (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116107vR 99

ERA4.27

FIP4.32

K%28.9%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%16.3%

Proj IP55

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6565

CTRL2020

CMD4040

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7996.6

Whiff%

p7929.8%

p7126.1%

xwOBA vs

p360.328

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	66	272	91	28	4	0%	1.7	25.7%	12.0%	13.7%	2.2%	3.15	3.63	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	66	272	91	28	4	0%	1.7	25.7%	12.0%	13.7%	2.2%	3.15	3.63	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	66	272	91	28	4	0%	1.7	33.5%	10.3%	23.2%	1.5%	3.15	2.40	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	1	54	235	73	28	9	2%	0.9	25.7%	13.8%	11.8%	5.2%	3.64	5.52	-0.6
2025	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	58	1	54	235	73	28	9	2%	0.9	25.7%	13.8%	11.8%	5.2%	3.64	5.52	-0.6
2025	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	58	1	54	235	73	28	9	2%	0.9	31.1%	11.9%	19.1%	3.8%	3.64	4.11	+0.3
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	70	313	85	33	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	1.9%	3.62	3.22	+1.1
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	70	313	85	33	6	0%	1.1	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	1.9%	3.62	3.22	+1.1
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	70	313	85	33	6	0%	1.1	27.2%	10.5%	16.6%	1.9%	3.62	3.20	+1.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	0	88	390	101	44	14	0%	0.9	25.9%	11.3%	14.6%	3.6%	4.09	4.37	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAA	45	0	47	198	57	25	6	0%	1.0	28.9%	12.6%	16.3%	3.1%	4.27	4.32	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	46	0	48	204	58	25	6	0%	1.1	28.5%	12.2%	16.3%	3.1%	4.29	4.30	+0.1
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	41	0	43	181	51	22	6	0%	1.0	28.1%	12.1%	16.0%	3.1%	4.32	4.34	+0.1
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	37	0	38	162	45	20	5	0%	1.0	27.8%	12.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.38	4.42	+0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	31	0	32	136	37	17	5	0%	1.0	27.1%	12.2%	14.8%	3.3%	4.50	4.58	-0.0
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	24	0	25	107	28	13	4	0%	1.1	26.4%	12.6%	13.8%	3.5%	4.67	4.79	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	41	0	43	182	52	22	6	0%	1.0	28.5%	12.2%	16.3%	3.1%	4.29	4.30	+0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	37	0	39	165	46	20	5	0%	1.1	28.1%	12.1%	16.0%	3.1%	4.32	4.34	+0.1
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	34	0	36	152	42	18	5	0%	1.1	27.8%	12.1%	15.7%	3.2%	4.38	4.42	+0.1
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	29	0	30	127	34	16	4	0%	1.0	27.1%	12.2%	14.8%	3.3%	4.50	4.58	-0.0
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	23	0	24	101	27	13	4	0%	1.0	26.4%	12.6%	13.8%	3.5%	4.67	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		258	0	261	1121	304	133	38	0%	1.0	27.1%	11.9%	15.2%	3.3%	4.30	4.16	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		198	0	200	859	233	102	29	0%	1.0	27.1%	11.9%	15.2%	3.3%	4.30	4.16	+0.9
Career	—	MLE		163	1	190	820	212	97	24	1%	1.2	25.8%	11.8%	14.0%	2.9%	3.46	4.01	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		172	1	200	865	223	102	25	1%	1.2	25.8%	11.8%	14.0%	2.9%	3.46	4.01	+0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 16 IPFIP 2.20 → 2.39 (+0.19)K% 30.7% → 26.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.67%	—	×0.860	26.37%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.33%	—	×0.900	12.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.20 → 2.39, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 10 IPFIP 2.92 → 3.30 (+0.38)K% 32.6% → 28.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.61%	—	×0.860	28.04%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.87%	—	×0.900	9.78%
HR / BF /BF	2.17%	÷0.989	×1.100	2.42%

Result: FIP 2.92 → 3.30, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 8 IPFIP -0.97 → -0.07 (+0.90)K% 53.6% → 43.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	53.57%	—	×0.810	43.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.57%	—	×1.100	3.93%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.028	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 106).

Result: FIP -0.97 → -0.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 34 IPFIP 1.68 → 2.92 (+1.24)K% 40.0% → 30.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.770	30.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.29%	—	×1.150	10.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.43%	÷0.916	×1.250	1.95%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 1.68 → 2.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AInland Empire 66ers · 30 IPFIP 3.17 → 4.44 (+1.27)K% 26.8% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.83%	—	×0.740	19.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.38%	—	×1.180	13.43%
HR / BF /BF	1.63%	÷0.882	×1.300	2.40%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 76).

Result: FIP 3.17 → 4.44, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
José Fermin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	28.9%	12.6%	3.1%	—	4.35	28.2%	16.0%	130	+0.03	—	—	—
James Norwood R 2019 · 4.35 FIP	25	SU	4.35	29.7%	12.7%	3.9%	.256	2.84	29.1%	17.4%	82	-1.51	2.27	349	79
Dovydas Neverauskas R 2018 · 4.63 FIP	25	SU	4.63	25.1%	12.3%	3.8%	.281	4.65	26.5%	16.4%	80	+0.02	2.74	353	79
Emilio Pagán R 2016 · 4.08 FIP	25	SU	4.08	26.2%	11.5%	3.2%	.267	3.49	29.2%	23.8%	214	-0.59	2.67	724	79
Cody Carroll R 2018 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	24.2%	12.7%	2.0%	.282	6.46	24.3%	12.3%	24	+2.73	3.67	311	77
Michael Feliz R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	25	SU	3.94	25.3%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	3.92	28.9%	19.8%	107	-0.02	2.77	442	77
Brooks Kriske R 2019 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	26.1%	12.2%	1.9%	.245	4.95	28.6%	16.5%	41	+1.48	3.09	246	76
Trey Wingenter R 2019 · 3.17 FIP	25	SU	3.17	33.0%	12.8%	2.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	293	73
Zac Leigh R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	28.1%	11.7%	3.0%	.282	4.56	20.2%	4.0%	131	+0.72	3.70	201	73
Dany Jiménez R 2019 · 3.39 FIP	25	SU	3.39	30.5%	8.8%	3.2%	.317	3.34	29.6%	17.5%	79	-0.05	3.17	321	72
Lucas Wepf R 2024 · 3.80 FIP	24	SU	3.80	27.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.304	4.09	25.4%	11.8%	80	+0.29	2.90	195	72
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	72
Brian Ellington R 2016 · 3.44 FIP	25	SU	3.44	27.5%	14.3%	1.6%	.252	5.01	24.6%	9.0%	97	+1.57	2.75	233	72
Frank Francisco R 2004 · 3.30 FIP	24	SU	3.30	27.8%	12.0%	1.8%	.254	3.78	18.3%	5.6%	59	+0.48	2.92	369	71
Zach Franklin R 2024 · 3.24 FIP	25	SU	3.24	26.4%	10.9%	1.8%	.301	4.15	27.5%	18.3%	117	+0.91	3.24	158	71
Bruce Rondón R 2016 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	29.0%	10.0%	2.6%	.284	3.41	25.1%	10.5%	82	+0.05	3.11	212	71
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	70
Garrett Mock R 2008 · 3.57 FIP	25	SU	3.57	25.6%	11.1%	2.2%	.300	4.06	17.1%	7.4%	91	+0.49	3.57	132	70
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2011 · 3.85 FIP	27	SU	3.85	24.7%	10.8%	2.7%	.315	3.90	25.2%	16.5%	70	+0.05	3.34	335	70
James Bourque R 2018 · 3.36 FIP	25	SU	3.36	28.1%	13.3%	1.7%	.250	4.15	25.7%	12.4%	64	+0.79	3.36	312	70
Kirby Yates R 2014 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	26.9%	7.7%	2.6%	.296	4.20	30.0%	21.2%	160	+0.95	0.66	526	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	41	27.4%	12.3%	1.27	4.30
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Antonio Bastardo ('17)	2.0	56	28.0%	11.4%	1.01	4.01
Brad Boxberger ('23)	2.4	43	28.7%	11.5%	1.19	3.50
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*