Andy Fabian

P FCL Orioles

Age 24 LHP 6'4" / 210 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ROKDSL Orioles O…	10	9	37	2.89	2.59	28.3%	9.4%	—	K 19.2% · BB 11.8% · FIP 3.94
2025	22	MIX2 levels	26	1	40	1.59	2.02	36.9%	16.1%	—	K 26.4% · BB 19.5% · FIP 3.34
2026	23	ROKBAL	11	0	13	6.39	3.26	23.0%	16.4%	—	K 15.6% · BB 20.5% · FIP 4.38
2027PROJ	24	MLBBAL	13	0	14	5.18	5.18	23.2%	16.6%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBBAL	14	0	15	4.96	4.87	23.6%	14.4%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsBrendan Nail (age 23) · Triston Polley (age 24) · Jackson Lancaster (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 132

ERA5.18

FIP5.18

K%23.2%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%6.6%

Proj IP14

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	9	37	159	45	15	2	90%	3.7	19.2%	11.8%	7.5%	1.8%	2.89	3.94	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	10	9	37	159	45	15	2	90%	3.7	19.2%	11.8%	7.5%	1.8%	2.89	3.94	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	10	9	37	159	45	15	2	90%	3.7	28.3%	9.4%	18.9%	1.3%	2.89	2.59	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	40	168	62	27	0	4%	1.5	26.4%	19.5%	6.9%	0.0%	1.59	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	40	168	62	27	0	4%	1.5	26.4%	19.5%	6.9%	0.0%	1.59	3.34	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	40	168	62	27	0	4%	1.5	36.9%	16.1%	20.8%	0.0%	1.59	2.02	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	0	13	61	14	10	0	0%	1.2	15.6%	20.5%	-4.9%	0.0%	6.39	4.38	—
2026	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	11	0	13	61	14	10	0	0%	1.2	15.6%	20.5%	-4.9%	0.0%	6.39	4.38	—
2026	23	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	11	0	13	61	14	10	0	0%	1.2	23.0%	16.4%	6.6%	0.0%	6.39	3.26	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	BAL	13	0	14	59	14	10	2	0%	1.1	23.2%	16.6%	6.6%	2.8%	5.18	5.18	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	34	0	36	152	36	22	4	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.96	4.87	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	14	0	15	63	15	9	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.96	4.87	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		15	0	15	65	15	9	2	0%	1.0	23.6%	14.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.96	4.49	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	194	117	26	0%	1.1	23.6%	14.4%	9.2%	2.8%	4.96	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		47	10	90	388	84	64	3	21%	1.9	21.8%	16.5%	5.3%	0.7%	2.81	3.75	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		105	22	200	865	188	143	6	21%	1.9	21.8%	16.5%	5.3%	0.7%	2.81	3.75	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andy Fabian (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.18	23.2%	16.6%	2.8%	—	4.87	23.6%	9.2%	36	-0.31	—	—	—
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	86
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	81
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	81
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	80
Renyel Pinto L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	26.7%	20.0%	2.2%	.246	4.42	21.2%	7.6%	185	-0.18	3.58	231	79
Matt Minnick L 2019 · 5.59 FIP	23	SU	5.59	17.2%	14.1%	3.9%	.302	4.67	23.5%	12.1%	105	-0.92	3.81	147	79
Randy Labaut L 2021 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	23.2%	14.0%	3.7%	.240	4.66	19.4%	5.9%	190	-0.29	1.91	302	79
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	78
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	78
Matt Thornton L 2004 · 4.18 FIP	27	SU	4.18	20.3%	16.2%	1.4%	.304	4.18	21.8%	11.5%	167	-0.00	1.71	663	78
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	78
Evan Shawver L 2024 · 4.08 FIP	24	SW	4.08	19.4%	15.3%	1.2%	.258	4.05	18.2%	9.0%	115	-0.03	3.79	281	77
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	77
John Kilichowski L 2018 · 4.99 FIP	24	SU	4.99	17.6%	16.2%	2.4%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	115	77
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	77
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	77
Jimmy Burnette L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	25.2%	16.3%	2.3%	.336	3.48	19.9%	5.1%	59	-0.81	3.00	158	77
Bailey Horn L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	24.7%	15.6%	3.1%	.320	4.35	22.0%	11.5%	163	-0.36	3.90	265	77
Max Roberts L 2021 · 4.85 FIP	24	SW	4.85	19.3%	15.2%	2.6%	.330	4.62	24.5%	8.4%	115	-0.23	4.27	173	76
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	76