Dilan Fernandez — OGILVIE

Dilan Fernandez P DSL Giants Black

+0.1 WAR

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 168 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.4 · 2028

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.9%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%12.6%

IP33

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2028

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	12	7	34	144	25	12	1	11.8%	10.4%	1.2%	3.97	4.06	+0.3
2025	20	ROK	DSL Giants Black	11	10	42	169	32	13	2	12.9%	9.6%	1.6%	3.24	4.10	+0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	SF	33	—	33	140	31	13	4	21.9%	9.3%	2.9%	4.40	4.40	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	SF	35	—	35	147	34	13	4	22.9%	8.8%	2.9%	4.29	4.21	+0.3
2028	23	MLB	SF	36	—	36	153	36	13	4	23.7%	8.4%	2.8%	4.18	4.09	+0.4
2029	24	MLB	SF	37	—	37	157	38	13	4	24.2%	8.2%	2.8%	4.08	4.01	+0.4
2030	25	MLB	SF	38	—	38	159	39	13	4	24.6%	8.1%	2.8%	4.01	3.96	+0.4
2031	26	MLB	SF	38	—	38	159	39	13	4	24.8%	8.1%	2.8%	3.97	3.94	+0.4
2032	27	MLB	SF	37	—	37	157	39	13	4	24.8%	8.1%	2.8%	3.96	3.95	+0.4
2033	28	MLB	SF	37	—	37	155	38	13	4	24.8%	8.2%	2.8%	3.97	3.98	+0.4
2034	29	MLB	SF	36	—	36	152	37	12	4	24.6%	8.2%	2.9%	4.00	4.02	+0.4
2035	30	MLB	SF	35	—	35	147	36	12	4	24.4%	8.3%	2.9%	4.05	4.08	+0.3
2036	31	MLB	SF	34	—	34	142	34	12	4	24.2%	8.5%	3.0%	4.11	4.16	+0.3
2037	32	MLB	SF	32	—	32	136	33	12	4	23.9%	8.6%	3.1%	4.19	4.24	+0.3
2038	33	MLB	SF	31	—	31	130	31	11	4	23.6%	8.8%	3.2%	4.28	4.34	+0.2
2039	34	MLB	SF	29	—	29	124	29	11	4	23.3%	9.0%	3.3%	4.38	4.45	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			23	17	76	313	39	31	4	12.4%	10.0%	1.4%	3.57	4.09	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—			61	45	200	827	103	82	11	12.4%	10.0%	1.4%	3.57	4.09	+2.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dilan Fernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	21.9%	9.3%	2.9%	—	4.10	23.6%	15.2%	108	-0.30	—	—	—
Logan Lombana R 2026 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.01	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.62	3.80	155	92
Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP	21	SU	4.49	18.2%	11.7%	2.6%	.333	4.39	11.9%	3.6%	72	-0.10	4.39	119	91
Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.74 FIP	20	SU	4.74	17.7%	11.6%	3.0%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.19	3.03	538	91
Austin Mason R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	21	SU	4.41	17.1%	11.6%	2.4%	.289	4.06	16.2%	6.5%	151	-0.35	3.60	179	91
Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SU	4.83	21.3%	11.8%	3.7%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.32	4.03	266	91
Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.17	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.32	3.05	195	91
Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	90
Mike Morrison R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.00	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.86	3.32	145	90
Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP	23	SU	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.15	338	90
Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	89
Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	89
Josnier Parra R 2026 · 4.53 FIP	21	SU	4.53	15.9%	9.8%	2.8%	.319	4.37	9.8%	1.9%	70	-0.16	3.79	102	89
Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.09	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.62	3.17	337	89
Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.12 FIP	20	SU	4.12	17.4%	9.5%	2.3%	.343	5.21	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.09	4.12	412	89
Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.96	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.10	3.46	146	89
Audry Lugo R 2025 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.31	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.26	4.05	113	89
Andrew Bash R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	22	SU	3.87	18.0%	9.2%	2.1%	.273	4.22	14.9%	4.8%	146	+0.35	3.63	428	89
Luis Alvarado R 2026 · 5.24 FIP	21	SU	5.24	20.2%	12.4%	4.2%	.276	5.18	18.7%	4.4%	140	-0.06	4.91	162	88
Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.62	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.22	4.40	140	88
Jayson McKinley R 2028 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.59	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.80	2.36	173	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.4	$2M	+$1.0M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	+0.3	$2M	+$1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$7M	+$4M