Dilan Fernandez — OGILVIE

Dilan Fernandez P ACL Giants

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 168 lbs ROK peak 0.5 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 45 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%14.6%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%3.2%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	12	7	34	144	25	12	1	58%	2.8	11.8%	10.4%	1.4%	1.1%	3.97	4.01	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	12	7	34	144	25	12	1	58%	2.8	11.8%	10.4%	1.4%	1.1%	3.97	4.01	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	12	7	34	144	25	12	1	58%	2.8	17.4%	8.3%	9.0%	0.7%	3.97	3.07	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	10	42	169	32	13	2	91%	3.8	12.9%	9.6%	3.3%	1.6%	3.24	4.12	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	11	10	42	169	32	13	2	91%	3.8	12.9%	9.6%	3.3%	1.6%	3.24	4.12	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	11	10	42	169	32	13	2	91%	3.8	18.9%	7.7%	11.2%	1.2%	3.24	3.12	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	3.10	—
2026	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	3.10	—
2026	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0%	0.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	27.00	3.10	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	SF	9	9	45	190	28	22	6	100%	5.0	14.6%	11.4%	3.2%	3.0%	5.32	5.32	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	SF	9	9	46	195	33	21	6	100%	5.1	16.6%	10.8%	5.8%	2.9%	5.11	5.04	-0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	48	201	36	21	6	100%	5.9	17.8%	10.5%	7.4%	2.9%	4.95	4.88	+0.0
2030	25	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	48	203	38	21	6	100%	6.0	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.85	4.80	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	48	203	38	21	6	100%	6.0	18.8%	10.2%	8.6%	2.9%	4.79	4.77	+0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	SF	8	8	47	200	38	21	6	100%	5.9	18.8%	10.3%	8.5%	2.9%	4.80	4.80	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	SF	4	4	23	97	16	10	3	100%	5.8	16.6%	10.8%	5.8%	2.9%	5.11	5.04	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	33	139	25	15	4	100%	5.5	17.8%	10.5%	7.4%	2.9%	4.95	4.88	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	39	165	30	17	5	100%	5.6	18.5%	10.3%	8.2%	2.9%	4.85	4.80	+0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	42	177	33	18	5	100%	6.0	18.8%	10.2%	8.6%	2.9%	4.79	4.77	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	SF	7	7	43	182	34	19	5	100%	6.1	18.8%	10.3%	8.5%	2.9%	4.80	4.80	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	180	759	139	79	22	100%	5.8	18.3%	10.4%	7.9%	2.9%	4.88	4.46	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	155	88	24	100%	5.8	18.3%	10.4%	7.9%	2.9%	4.88	4.46	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		24	17	76	315	39	31	4	71%	3.2	12.3%	9.9%	2.4%	1.4%	3.67	4.06	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	45	200	829	102	82	11	71%	3.2	12.3%	9.9%	2.4%	1.4%	3.67	4.06	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dilan Fernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	14.6%	11.4%	3.0%	—	4.91	17.7%	7.2%	142	-0.41	—	—	—
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	85
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	83
Xavier Altamirano R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	11.3%	11.0%	2.1%	.333	4.51	14.7%	7.7%	388	-0.21	3.91	451	83
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	83
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	83
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	82
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	630	82
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	82
Justin Germano R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP-	4.49	14.7%	12.8%	1.8%	.377	4.12	13.8%	7.3%	133	-0.37	3.73	405	82
Dedniel Núñez R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	14.2%	11.6%	1.6%	.303	3.30	21.1%	13.2%	80	-0.96	1.80	337	81
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	80
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	80
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.71	21.6%	11.0%	188	-0.66	3.16	266	80
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	80
Jared Ruxer R 2015 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	17.3%	10.6%	2.1%	.333	4.29	14.9%	7.5%	240	+0.13	3.39	270	80
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	80
Dustin McGowan R 2005 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.6%	8.3%	3.4%	.286	3.65	19.1%	10.3%	308	-0.97	3.36	690	80
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	433	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	17.6%	10.6%	1.13	4.97
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Jesus Colome ('10)	2.1	53	17.3%	11.7%	1.03	4.69
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26