Naimer Rosario
P
DSL Arizona Red
+0.3
WAR
Age 20
LHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.8 · 2030
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%13.0%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2030
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 12 | 5 | 36 | 155 | 39 | 22 | 0 | 17.1% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 4.04 | 3.90 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | DSL Arizona Red | 12 | 12 | 60 | 230 | 64 | 16 | 1 | 18.9% | 8.7% | 0.5% | 2.70 | 2.87 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | ARI | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 49 | 21 | 6 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ARI | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 53 | 21 | 6 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.24 | 4.20 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB | ARI | 57 | — | 57 | 242 | 58 | 21 | 7 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 4.03 | +0.6 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 59 | — | 59 | 250 | 62 | 21 | 7 | 24.7% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 4.01 | 3.92 | +0.7 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 65 | 21 | 7 | 25.2% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.84 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 66 | 21 | 7 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 3.83 | 3.78 | +0.8 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 62 | 260 | 67 | 21 | 7 | 25.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.79 | 3.76 | +0.8 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 67 | 21 | 7 | 25.8% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.78 | 3.77 | +0.8 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 65 | 20 | 7 | 25.7% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.79 | 3.79 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 64 | 20 | 7 | 25.6% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 3.82 | 3.84 | +0.7 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 61 | 20 | 7 | 25.4% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 3.90 | +0.7 |
| 2037 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 55 | — | 55 | 232 | 58 | 19 | 7 | 25.2% | 8.3% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.98 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 55 | 19 | 7 | 24.9% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.06 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 24.6% | 8.6% | 3.0% | 4.10 | 4.16 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 17 | 96 | 385 | 70 | 48 | 1 | 18.2% | 12.3% | 0.3% | 3.20 | 3.29 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 805 | 146 | 100 | 2 | 18.2% | 12.3% | 0.3% | 3.20 | 3.29 | +4.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Naimer Rosario (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 22.6% | 9.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.05 | 23.9% | 15.3% | 171 | -0.26 | — | — | — |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.45 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 90 |
| Yereny Teus L 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.59 | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .276 | 4.59 | 18.9% | 0.7% | 34 | +1.00 | 3.49 | 131 | 89 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.21 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.98 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.77 | 4.21 | 128 | 88 |
| Oddanier Mosqueda L 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.74 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .308 | 4.12 | 25.7% | 14.1% | 106 | +0.38 | 3.05 | 433 | 86 |
| Cody Reed L 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.37 | 19.9% | 7.3% | 1.9% | .324 | 4.34 | 18.7% | 10.3% | 136 | +0.97 | 3.37 | 212 | 85 |
| Evan Shawver L 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.28 | 18.8% | 10.6% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 4.0% | 152 | +0.49 | 4.09 | 219 | 85 |
| José Torres L 2027 · 3.35 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.35 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 1.6% | .262 | 4.13 | 21.2% | 13.6% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.35 | 204 | 85 |
| Pablo Aldonis L 2026 · 4.29 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.29 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 3.5% | .324 | 2.64 | 21.9% | 13.1% | 68 | -1.65 | 1.89 | 108 | 85 |
| Marcelo Martinez L 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.29 | 22.0% | 6.5% | 2.2% | .303 | 5.49 | 18.6% | 10.2% | 234 | +2.20 | 3.29 | 427 | 84 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2028 · 4.24 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.24 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.76 | 161 | 84 |
| Jake Bennett L 2028 · 3.40 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.40 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.1% | .339 | 3.17 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 83 | -0.23 | 1.70 | 146 | 84 |
| Sam Weatherly L 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.04 | 24.0% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .323 | 4.14 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 41 | +0.10 | 4.04 | 158 | 84 |
| Felix Carvallo L 2027 · 4.57 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.57 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .323 | 4.52 | 17.7% | 4.7% | 67 | -0.05 | 4.52 | 132 | 84 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.63 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .262 | 5.08 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.45 | 3.63 | 271 | 83 |
| Shane McCain L 2029 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.31 | 19.8% | 9.7% | 3.0% | .324 | 4.65 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 125 | +0.34 | 4.31 | 201 | 83 |
| Dominic LoBrutto L 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.21 | 21.4% | 6.9% | 1.9% | .333 | 3.46 | 17.8% | 10.6% | 84 | +0.25 | 2.99 | 135 | 83 |
| Ryne Slack L 2029 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.08 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.6% | .293 | 4.99 | 15.4% | 2.5% | 142 | +0.91 | 4.08 | 212 | 83 |
| Cameron Ming L 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 2.4% | .308 | 5.58 | 14.3% | 4.9% | 49 | +1.77 | 3.81 | 111 | 83 |
| Chase Watkins L 2028 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 20.6% | 11.8% | 1.6% | .346 | 4.33 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.59 | 3.29 | 213 | 83 |
| Ben Onyshko L 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.50 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 1.6% | .349 | 5.44 | 20.4% | 8.0% | 100 | +1.94 | 3.50 | 219 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $15M | +$11M | ||