Andres Arias
OF FCL Blue Jays| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROKTOR | 69 | .309/.435/.418 | 0 | 3 | 65 | — | .203/.319/.271 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROKTOR | 183 | .167/.290/.295 | 5 | 9 | 2 | — | .104/.197/.183 |
| 2026 | 19 | ROKTOR | 183 | .247/.393/.411 | 4 | 6 | 55 | — | .164/.273/.264 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 20 | MLBTOR | 293 | .188/.262/.279 | 4 | 5 | 54 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 21 | MLBTOR | 49 | .194/.270/.295 | 1 | 1 | 60 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | — | 69 | 55 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 309 | 435 | 418 | 853 | 109 | 425 | 22 | 16 | 388 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 156 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 57 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 167 | 290 | 295 | 584 | 128 | 223 | 31 | 11 | 275 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 146 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 42 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 247 | 393 | 411 | 804 | 164 | 320 | 23 | 17 | 366 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 69 | 59 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 319 | 271 | 590 | 68 | 291 | 28 | 12 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 164 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 82 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 104 | 197 | 183 | 380 | 79 | 168 | 45 | 7 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 159 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 60 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 164 | 273 | 264 | 537 | 101 | 246 | 33 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 69 | 59 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 319 | 271 | 590 | 68 | 300 | 28 | 12 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Blue Jays | — | 69 | 55 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 309 | 435 | 418 | 853 | 109 | 425 | 22 | 16 | 388 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 164 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 82 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 104 | 197 | 183 | 380 | 79 | 177 | 45 | 7 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK RAW | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 156 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 57 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 167 | 290 | 295 | 584 | 128 | 223 | 31 | 11 | 275 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 159 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 60 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 164 | 273 | 264 | 537 | 101 | 240 | 33 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 146 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 32 | 42 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 247 | 393 | 411 | 804 | 164 | 320 | 23 | 17 | 366 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 69 | 59 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 319 | 271 | 590 | 68 | 291 | 28 | 12 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 162 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 82 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 105 | 197 | 185 | 382 | 80 | 168 | 45 | 7 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 157 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 60 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 166 | 273 | 268 | 541 | 102 | 246 | 33 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Blue Jays | — | 69 | 59 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 203 | 319 | 271 | 590 | 68 | 291 | 28 | 12 | 264 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 162 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 82 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 105 | 197 | 185 | 382 | 80 | 168 | 45 | 7 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Blue Jays | — | 183 | 157 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 60 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 166 | 273 | 268 | 541 | 102 | 246 | 33 | 11 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB MLE | TOR | 0% | 293 | 264 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 85 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 188 | 262 | 279 | 541 | 91 | 257 | 29 | 8 | 248 | 54 | -16 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 21 | MLB MLE | TOR | 34% | 144 | 130 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 41 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 193 | 269 | 294 | 562 | 100 | 260 | 28 | 8 | 257 | 60 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB CTX | TOR | 34% | 49 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 270 | 295 | 564 | 101 | 261 | 29 | 8 | 258 | 60 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 49 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 286 | 318 | 604 | 114 | 276 | 29 | 8 | 258 | 42 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 120 | 27 | 0 | 13 | 53 | 186 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 205 | 286 | 318 | 605 | 113 | 278 | 29 | 8 | 258 | 42 | -31 | +3 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 674 | 599 | 96 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 59 | 229 | 15 | 23 | 5 | 160 | 253 | 250 | 503 | 90 | 240 | 34 | 9 | 231 | 42 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 578 | 93 | 18 | 4 | 9 | 57 | 221 | 14 | 22 | 5 | 161 | 253 | 253 | 505 | 92 | 241 | 34 | 9 | 231 | 42 | -33 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 183 PAwOBA .358 → .249 (−108)K% 23.0% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.95% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.49% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 10.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.19% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 17.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 5.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.995 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.99% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .358 → .249; ISO .164 → .117; BABIP .320 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKFCL Blue Jays · 183 PAwOBA .268 → .171 (−97)K% 31.1% → 44.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.15% | ÷1.002 | ×1.440 | — | — | 44.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.48% | ÷1.001 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.28% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.17% | ÷1.038 | ×0.820 | ×0.975 | ×1.008 | 13.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.956 | ×0.720 | ×0.975 | ×1.008 | 2.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.975 | ×1.008 | 0.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.05% | ÷1.077 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 3.68% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 108, 2B 91, 3B 130, K 100, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .268 → .171; ISO .128 → .078; BABIP .223 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL Blue Jays · 69 PAwOBA .379 → .264 (−115)K% 21.7% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.74% | ÷0.973 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.94% | ÷1.015 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 11.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.90% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.50% | ÷0.958 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.008 | 19.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 15.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 9.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.892 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 80, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .379 → .264; ISO .109 → .070; BABIP .425 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).