Andres Arias — OGILVIE

Andres AriasOF FCL Blue Jays

Age 19 R/R 6'4" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION183 act + 17 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.188 / .235 / .250

PA17

HR0

K%29

BB%6

BABIP254

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	55	17	6	0	0	11	15	2	3	1	309	435	418	853	109	425	22	16	388	149	+4	+0	—	—	+1	0.6
2025	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	156	26	3	1	5	21	57	6	9	2	167	290	295	584	128	223	31	11	275	72	-6	+1	—	—	+4	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	60	13	4	0	0	7	22	2	3	1	217	319	283	602	67	347	32	10	276	73	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	164	17	2	1	3	13	82	6	9	2	104	197	183	380	79	167	45	7	170	1	-22	+1	—	—	+4	-1.7
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	60	13	4	0	0	7	22	2	3	1	217	319	283	602	67	342	32	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	55	17	6	0	0	11	15	2	3	1	309	435	418	853	109	425	22	16	388	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	164	17	2	1	3	13	82	6	9	2	104	197	183	380	79	177	45	7	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	156	26	3	1	5	21	57	6	9	2	167	290	295	584	128	223	31	11	275	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	60	13	4	0	0	7	22	2	3	1	217	319	283	602	67	347	32	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	162	17	2	1	3	13	82	6	9	2	105	197	185	382	80	167	45	7	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	60	13	4	0	0	7	22	2	3	1	217	319	283	602	67	347	32	10	276	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	162	17	2	1	3	13	82	6	9	2	105	197	185	382	80	167	45	7	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	TOR	—	183	159	26	5	1	3	20	60	4	6	1	164	273	264	537	101	240	33	11	250	55	-10	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.6
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK RAW	TOR	—	183	146	36	8	2	4	32	42	4	6	1	247	393	411	804	164	320	23	17	366	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	ROK MLE	TOR	0%	17	16	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	188	235	250	485	62	253	29	6	250	55	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.1
TOT	19	ROK MLE	TOR	—	200	175	29	6	1	3	21	65	4	6	1	166	270	263	533	97	243	32	10	250	55	-11	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	TOR	34%	246	219	43	8	2	4	21	71	4	4	1	196	279	306	585	110	261	29	9	264	65	-10	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
2028	21	MLB MLE	TOR	48%	368	327	64	12	2	7	32	103	6	7	2	196	279	309	588	113	264	28	9	272	70	-13	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	TOR	54%	455	405	82	16	3	9	40	125	7	8	2	202	285	323	609	121	267	27	9	278	74	-14	+1	+0	-3	+10	-0.6
2030	23	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	512	454	94	18	3	11	45	139	8	10	2	207	290	333	623	126	268	27	9	281	76	-14	+1	+0	-3	+11	-0.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	TOR	57%	549	487	100	19	3	12	49	149	8	10	2	205	289	331	619	125	269	27	9	283	77	-15	+1	+0	-3	+12	-0.5
2027	20	MLB CTX	TOR	34%	85	77	15	3	1	1	7	24	1	1	0	195	271	299	569	104	262	28	8	253	65	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	TOR	48%	178	157	31	6	1	3	16	50	3	3	1	197	284	306	590	108	266	28	9	262	70	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	TOR	54%	247	219	46	9	2	5	22	68	4	5	1	210	294	338	632	128	268	28	9	267	74	-8	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
2030	23	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	290	258	53	10	2	6	26	79	4	5	1	205	288	329	618	124	270	27	9	271	76	-8	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	TOR	57%	310	275	58	11	2	7	27	84	5	6	1	211	293	342	635	131	270	27	9	272	77	-8	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1110	986	203	39	8	22	98	305	17	20	4	206	289	329	617	123	273	27	9	268	68	-34	+2	+0	-7	+24	-1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	119	23	5	13	57	179	10	12	2	206	288	331	619	125	273	28	9	268	68	-20	+1	+0	-4	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	2399	2132	416	80	14	46	208	696	41	51	12	195	279	311	590	115	264	29	9	269	68	-68	+4	+0	-13	+47	-3.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	113	22	4	12	56	189	11	14	3	196	279	310	589	114	266	29	9	269	68	-20	+1	+0	-4	+14	-0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.9	1,270	25	23	203	281	321	-8	+0	-1.2	-0.6
/162	664	13	12	-4.0	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andres Arias (OGILVIE)	19	20	35	50	40	180/264/273	92	253	2	4	30%	9%	55	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Enger Jimenez 2014 · A	19	34	41→40	47→50	35	176/222/272	96	262	8	9	35%	5%	37	-3.3	206/257/299	93	278	6	10	26%	5%	57	-1.8	216/268/312	96	280	5	12	23%	5%	61	-0.6
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2010 · A	19	38	38→45	51→50	38	189/234/265	77	255	6	13	28%	4%	40	-3.0	216/275/340	124	268	12	12	23%	6%	74	-0.6	220/275/339	119	277	13	9	24%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	40	40	46→55	38	195/253/280	85	273	7	8	30%	5%	51	-2.2	200/258/297	97	283	8	10	31%	6%	57	-1.8	204/262/298	94	272	5	15	25%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	53	-2.1	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	65	-1.2	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	68	-0.4
✕Emilio King 2009 · A	19	38	37→45	44→40	41	184/245/258	74	245	5	6	26%	6%	43	-2.8	196/260/278	82	281	5	6	30%	5%	54	-2.0	205/257/297	92	296	6	4	31%	4%	54	-0.9
✕Ryan Vega 2016 · A	19	40	35→40	52→45	41	190/245/253	62	253	3	9	25%	5%	42	-2.9	221/274/312	91	286	8	7	24%	6%	66	-1.1	200/263/287	87	275	8	6	29%	6%	56	-0.8
✕Jose Colmenares 2021 · A	19	39	39→45	47→50	45	192/256/277	84	251	7	8	26%	7%	52	-2.2	210/290/338	128	295	14	8	31%	9%	79	-0.2	177/254/299	122	259	13	14	35%	8%	55	-0.8
✕Albert Laboy 2006 · A	19	39→38	37→40	52→45	42	187/233/255	68	227	5	9	20%	4%	37	-3.3	210/254/295	85	254	8	8	20%	5%	55	-2.0	213/261/298	85	248	10	6	18%	5%	56	-1.0
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	42	-2.9	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	40	-3.0	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	17	-1.4
✕Jose Manuel Orozco 2010 · A	19	34	39→45	50→45	42	170/223/263	92	223	6	6	26%	6%	36	-3.4	208/253/303	95	284	8	7	28%	5%	56	-1.9	221/269/347	125	311	14	7	32%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	35	41→45	47→60	41	179/238/272	93	242	10	13	30%	6%	44	-2.8	221/272/301	80	288	7	19	24%	6%	63	-1.4	235/283/299	64	303	5	24	23%	5%	64	-0.4
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	41	37→40	53→55	43	195/256/271	76	260	4	13	25%	6%	50	-2.3	197/266/280	83	273	6	17	28%	7%	56	-1.9	189/268/272	83	254	9	24	27%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Jonatan Santana 2007 · A	19	37	36→40	49→55	42	176/228/234	58	224	3	8	23%	5%	31	-3.7	198/259/261	63	244	3	12	19%	7%	49	-2.4	202/264/265	64	238	3	16	16%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Rafael Mejia 2017 · A	19	37	39→40	47→50	38	184/237/267	83	263	7	6	32%	5%	42	-2.9	198/237/320	122	278	14	7	33%	4%	55	-2.0	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	61	-0.3
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	45	-2.7	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	49	-2.4	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	56	-0.6
✕Stanley Martinez 2016 · A	19	40	36→45	48→50	44	189/254/259	70	267	2	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	203/274/293	90	276	7	8	27%	7%	63	-1.4	202/276/292	90	272	8	7	27%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Adonis Paula 2013 · A	19	37	37→40	48→40	35	180/236/252	72	281	4	8	36%	5%	38	-3.2	196/258/274	78	286	4	5	31%	6%	52	-2.2	178/237/252	75	274	4	2	34%	6%	37	-1.1
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	42→35	37→40	43→50	40	196/257/268	72	295	4	10	33%	6%	50	-2.3	186/284/265	79	353	5	9	43%	10%	61	-1.5	159/271/236	77	335	5	7	47%	10%	49	-1.0
✕Hector Garcia 2008 · A	18	38	40→45	49→40	41	188/237/274	86	249	7	6	27%	6%	43	-2.8	212/263/289	77	269	6	4	22%	6%	57	-1.8	222/269/309	87	270	7	1	20%	5%	61	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps