Andres AriasOF
FCL Blue Jays
Age 19
R/R
6'4" / 180 lbs
ROK
HR +12%BB +4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 1.8 · 2033
wRC+†58
AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .265 / .308
PA154
HR3
K%32
BB%7
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
35→35
SPD
50→50
EYE
49↘40
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.8peak
2033
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.8 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +1.8 | $18M | +$17M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +1.7 | $18M | +$14M |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | +1.5 | $16M | +$11M |
| 2037 | Ext / FA-deal | $6M | +1.2 | $13M | +$7M |
| Totals | $17M | $99M | +$82M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 69 | 60 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .217 | .319 | .283 | .602 | .067 | .342 | 32 | 10 | .278 | 71 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 183 | 164 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 82 | 6 | 9 | 2 | .098 | .191 | .165 | .356 | .067 | .165 | 45 | 7 | .166 | -15 | -24 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | MLB | TOR | 154 | 140 | 28 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .200 | .268 | .314 | .582 | .114 | .278 | 32 | 7 | .262 | 58 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB 11% | TOR | 236 | 211 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 70 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .213 | .291 | .346 | .637 | .133 | .286 | 30 | 8 | .284 | 76 | -6 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB 28% | TOR | 360 | 319 | 70 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 102 | 5 | 8 | 2 | .219 | .303 | .364 | .666 | .144 | .288 | 28 | 9 | .299 | 87 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +10 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB 48% | TOR | 450 | 398 | 90 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 43 | 123 | 6 | 10 | 2 | .226 | .311 | .379 | .690 | .153 | .288 | 27 | 10 | .308 | 94 | -3 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +13 | 0.8 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB 65% | TOR | 509 | 447 | 103 | 18 | 3 | 16 | 50 | 136 | 7 | 11 | 2 | .230 | .317 | .391 | .709 | .161 | .289 | 27 | 10 | .314 | 99 | -1 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +14 | 1.2 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB 82% | TOR | 547 | 480 | 110 | 19 | 3 | 17 | 55 | 144 | 7 | 11 | 2 | .229 | .317 | .388 | .705 | .158 | .289 | 26 | 10 | .318 | 102 | +1 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | 1.5 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 570 | 499 | 116 | 20 | 3 | 19 | 58 | 149 | 8 | 11 | 2 | .232 | .322 | .399 | .721 | .166 | .290 | 26 | 10 | .321 | 104 | +3 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 1.7 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 581 | 507 | 118 | 21 | 3 | 19 | 61 | 152 | 8 | 11 | 2 | .233 | .325 | .398 | .723 | .166 | .290 | 26 | 10 | .323 | 105 | +4 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +16 | 1.8 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 584 | 509 | 118 | 21 | 3 | 19 | 62 | 154 | 8 | 11 | 2 | .232 | .325 | .397 | .722 | .165 | .290 | 26 | 11 | .323 | 105 | +4 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +17 | 1.8 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 581 | 506 | 117 | 20 | 3 | 19 | 62 | 154 | 8 | 11 | 2 | .231 | .325 | .395 | .720 | .164 | .290 | 27 | 11 | .322 | 105 | +3 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +16 | 1.7 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 572 | 498 | 114 | 20 | 3 | 18 | 61 | 153 | 8 | 10 | 1 | .229 | .323 | .390 | .712 | .161 | .289 | 27 | 11 | .320 | 103 | +2 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +16 | 1.5 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 562 | 489 | 111 | 19 | 3 | 18 | 60 | 152 | 8 | 9 | 1 | .227 | .321 | .389 | .710 | .162 | .287 | 27 | 11 | .317 | 101 | +0 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +16 | 1.2 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 549 | 478 | 107 | 18 | 3 | 17 | 59 | 151 | 7 | 8 | 0 | .224 | .318 | .381 | .699 | .157 | .286 | 28 | 11 | .313 | 98 | -1 | +2 | -3 | -3 | +16 | 1.0 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 531 | 462 | 102 | 17 | 3 | 16 | 57 | 149 | 7 | 8 | 0 | .221 | .316 | .374 | .690 | .154 | .284 | 28 | 11 | .308 | 94 | -4 | +2 | -4 | -3 | +15 | 0.7 |
| 2040 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 501 | 437 | 94 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 53 | 144 | 6 | 7 | 0 | .215 | .308 | .357 | .665 | .142 | .283 | 29 | 11 | .303 | 90 | -6 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +14 | 0.3 |
| 2041 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 454 | 397 | 83 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 48 | 134 | 6 | 7 | 0 | .209 | .304 | .345 | .649 | .136 | .281 | 30 | 11 | .296 | 85 | -8 | +1 | -5 | -3 | +13 | -0.1 |
| 2042 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 399 | 349 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 122 | 5 | 6 | 0 | .206 | .301 | .338 | .639 | .132 | .278 | 31 | 11 | .288 | 79 | -10 | +1 | -6 | -2 | +11 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 8392 | 7350 | 1627 | 282 | 43 | 249 | 855 | 2342 | 117 | 159 | 23 | .221 | .312 | .373 | .685 | .152 | .287 | 28 | 10 | .308 | 94 | -61 | +23 | -25 | -50 | +238 | 12.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 569 | 126 | 22 | 3 | 19 | 66 | 181 | 9 | 12 | 2 | .221 | .312 | .371 | .682 | .149 | .288 | 28 | 10 | .308 | 94 | -5 | +2 | -2 | -4 | +18 | 1.0 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 69 | 55 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | .309 | .435 | .418 | .853 | .109 | .425 | 22 | 16 | .388 | 155 | +4 | +0 | — | — | +2 | 0.7 |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 183 | 156 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 57 | 6 | 9 | 2 | .167 | .290 | .295 | .584 | .128 | .223 | 31 | 11 | .275 | 69 | -6 | +1 | — | — | +5 | -0.0 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Andres Arias (OGILVIE) | 19 | 20 | 35 | 50 | 40 | .197/.265/.308 | .111 | .278 | 3 | 3 | 32% | 7% | 58 | -0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A |
19 | 36 | 41→45 | 47→60 | 41 | .181/.239/.272 | .091 | .247 | 9 | 13 | 30% | 6% | 37 | -2.6 | .219/.271/.301 | .082 | .284 | 7 | 20 | 24% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .234/.281/.297 | .063 | .300 | 5 | 24 | 23% | 5% | 58 | -0.3 |
|
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2012 · A |
19 | 42 | 42→45 | 47→50 | 43 | .205/.277/.309 | .104 | .271 | 9 | 8 | 27% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .224/.284/.326 | .102 | .290 | 5 | 11 | 24% | 5% | 70 | -0.3 | .226/.280/.337 | .111 | .291 | 6 | 11 | 23% | 4% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A |
18 | 40 | 42→50 | 48→55 | 43 | .195/.271/.297 | .102 | .274 | 9 | 9 | 31% | 8% | 58 | -1.2 | .218/.289/.357 | .139 | .282 | 16 | 15 | 27% | 8% | 81 | +0.4 | .220/.291/.383 | .163 | .271 | 20 | 20 | 26% | 8% | 85 | +0.3 |
|
✕Jesus Vasquez 2011 · A |
19 | 40 | 43→55 | 47→55 | 38 | .201/.250/.313 | .113 | .265 | 10 | 10 | 28% | 5% | 52 | -1.6 | .214/.278/.346 | .132 | .291 | 14 | 14 | 30% | 6% | 73 | -0.1 | .221/.297/.387 | .166 | .294 | 19 | 20 | 30% | 8% | 97 | +0.7 |
|
✕Enger Jimenez 2014 · A |
19 | 35 | 41→40 | 47→50 | 35 | .178/.225/.274 | .096 | .266 | 8 | 9 | 35% | 5% | 31 | -3.0 | .204/.255/.297 | .093 | .277 | 6 | 10 | 27% | 5% | 50 | -1.8 | .216/.268/.312 | .096 | .280 | 5 | 12 | 23% | 5% | 56 | -0.5 |
|
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A |
20 | 41→35 | 41→45 | 47→50 | 40 | .199/.265/.295 | .096 | .286 | 9 | 10 | 32% | 6% | 55 | -1.4 | .204/.294/.305 | .101 | .301 | 9 | 8 | 32% | 10% | 70 | -0.3 | .186/.292/.283 | .097 | .277 | 9 | 10 | 33% | 11% | 63 | -0.5 |
|
✕Jose Paez 2012 · A |
18 | 36 | 36→45 | 50 | 41 | .175/.242/.240 | .065 | .268 | 3 | 16 | 34% | 7% | 30 | -3.1 | .220/.268/.310 | .090 | .309 | 5 | 12 | 29% | 5% | 58 | -1.2 | .226/.270/.319 | .093 | .319 | 4 | 12 | 29% | 5% | 56 | -0.4 |
|
●Davis Schneider 2018 · A |
19 | 40→44 | 41→55 | 48→50 | 50 | .198/.276/.300 | .102 | .259 | 8 | 6 | 26% | 9% | 60 | -1.0 | .193/.268/.290 | .097 | .299 | 8 | 7 | 35% | 8% | 54 | -1.4 | .213/.322/.409 | .196 | .275 | 24 | 9 | 30% | 12% | 106 | +1.6 |
|
✕Efrain Contreras 2006 · A |
19 | 43 | 37→45 | 49→55 | 41 | .203/.263/.279 | .075 | .288 | 4 | 8 | 30% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .223/.288/.330 | .107 | .269 | 10 | 12 | 21% | 6% | 73 | -0.1 | .225/.291/.340 | .115 | .260 | 12 | 15 | 18% | 5% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2008 · A |
19 | 38 | 39→45 | 47→50 | 37 | .183/.243/.267 | .084 | .297 | 6 | 10 | 38% | 7% | 37 | -2.6 | .184/.274/.285 | .101 | .277 | 11 | 8 | 35% | 9% | 57 | -1.2 | .165/.268/.271 | .106 | .240 | 13 | 6 | 34% | 10% | 50 | -0.6 |
|
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A |
19 | 39→41 | 42→50 | 53→55 | 44 | .191/.270/.293 | .102 | .283 | 10 | 11 | 34% | 8% | 56 | -1.3 | .199/.283/.318 | .119 | .317 | 11 | 15 | 37% | 9% | 69 | -0.4 | .216/.296/.349 | .133 | .314 | 15 | 19 | 33% | 9% | 78 | +0.1 |
|
✕Alexander Canario 2019 · A |
19 | 41→34 | 42→60 | 47→50 | 44 | .203/.269/.309 | .106 | .273 | 10 | 12 | 28% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .209/.266/.356 | .147 | .291 | 17 | 11 | 33% | 7% | 70 | -0.3 | .209/.277/.424 | .216 | .279 | 30 | 13 | 36% | 8% | 90 | +0.6 |
|
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A |
19 | 39 | 38→55 | 47→45 | 39 | .185/.251/.256 | .071 | .289 | 6 | 6 | 36% | 7% | 39 | -2.5 | .226/.287/.352 | .126 | .291 | 13 | 7 | 26% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .248/.309/.417 | .169 | .290 | 19 | 6 | 21% | 6% | 103 | +0.7 |
|
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A |
20 | 37 | 40 | 44→55 | 39 | .185/.250/.273 | .088 | .268 | 9 | 9 | 33% | 6% | 43 | -2.2 | .200/.257/.289 | .089 | .277 | 6 | 11 | 28% | 6% | 49 | -1.8 | .197/.256/.288 | .091 | .265 | 4 | 15 | 26% | 6% | 45 | -0.8 |
|
✕Yordyn Calderon 2013 · A |
19 | 37 | 42→45 | 46→50 | 39 | .184/.249/.286 | .102 | .275 | 10 | 10 | 35% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .195/.268/.306 | .111 | .282 | 10 | 11 | 32% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .184/.266/.297 | .113 | .261 | 10 | 13 | 31% | 8% | 53 | -0.7 |
|
✕Cesar Quintas 2022 · A |
19 | 46→36 | 40→45 | 50 | 43 | .220/.300/.314 | .095 | .296 | 7 | 7 | 26% | 6% | 75 | -0.0 | .204/.282/.283 | .079 | .308 | 6 | 5 | 33% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .200/.289/.313 | .113 | .283 | 11 | 6 | 31% | 7% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
●Moisés Sierra 2008 · A |
19 | 37→47 | 41→50 | 49→50 | 37 | .188/.241/.283 | .095 | .258 | 9 | 10 | 30% | 5% | 41 | -2.3 | .219/.266/.312 | .093 | .295 | 8 | 8 | 27% | 4% | 59 | -1.1 | .250/.316/.378 | .129 | .306 | 14 | 15 | 22% | 7% | 94 | +1.0 |
|
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A |
19 | 42→40 | 41→50 | 46→40 | 44 | .207/.262/.297 | .091 | .272 | 9 | 9 | 27% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .205/.256/.301 | .096 | .278 | 8 | 7 | 27% | 6% | 51 | -1.7 | .210/.263/.325 | .115 | .276 | 10 | 3 | 27% | 6% | 59 | -0.6 |
|
✕Victor Rodrigues 2023 · A |
18 | 41 | 38→30 | 49→50 | 44 | .199/.262/.281 | .083 | .258 | 5 | 7 | 24% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .211/.287/.284 | .073 | .267 | 5 | 9 | 21% | 9% | 61 | -1.0 | .221/.317/.274 | .053 | .274 | 5 | 10 | 19% | 11% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Edwin Sanchez 2023 · A |
18 | 41 | 44→45 | 44→50 | 46 | .203/.288/.316 | .113 | .290 | 11 | 6 | 32% | 9% | 70 | -0.3 | .198/.307/.305 | .107 | .277 | 10 | 9 | 29% | 11% | 77 | +0.1 | .175/.316/.285 | .110 | .237 | 10 | 11 | 27% | 13% | 76 | +0.0 |