Andres Arias — OGILVIE

Andres AriasOF FCL Blue Jays

Age 19 R/R 6'4" / 180 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION163 act + 108 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .260 / .259

PA108

HR1

K%29

BB%8

BABIP247

ISO83

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	60	13	4	0	0	7	23	2	3	1	217	319	283	602	67	351	33	10	281	73	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	55	17	6	0	0	11	15	2	3	1	309	435	418	853	109	425	22	16	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	164	16	2	0	3	13	82	6	9	2	98	191	165	356	67	165	45	7	166	-15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	156	26	3	1	5	21	57	6	9	2	167	290	295	584	128	223	31	11	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	TOR	—	163	140	23	4	1	2	19	53	4	6	1	164	282	250	532	86	247	33	12	250	50	-9	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
YTD	19	ROK	TOR	—	163	128	31	6	2	3	30	37	4	6	1	242	399	391	789	148	318	23	18	363	136	+7	+1	+0	-1	+5	1.1
ROS	19	ROK	TOR	0%	108	96	17	3	1	1	9	32	2	2	1	176	260	259	519	83	255	29	8	249	49	-6	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.4
ROS	19	MLB	TOR	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		257	—	—	238	40	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	TOR	—	163	141	23	4	1	2	19	53	4	6	1	163	282	248	530	85	244	33	12	250	50	-9	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
TOT	19	ROK	TOR	—	271	236	40	7	2	3	28	85	6	8	2	169	273	254	527	85	247	31	10	250	49	-16	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	TOR	34%	290	258	50	9	2	5	25	84	5	5	1	194	278	302	580	109	262	29	9	263	59	-13	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.6
2028	21	MLB	TOR	48%	401	357	71	13	3	7	35	113	6	7	2	199	281	311	592	112	266	28	9	271	66	-15	+1	+0	-2	+11	-0.6
2029	22	MLB	TOR	54%	478	425	86	16	3	9	42	132	8	9	2	202	286	318	604	115	268	28	9	277	70	-16	+1	+0	-3	+14	-0.5
2030	23	MLB	TOR	57%	528	468	96	18	3	11	47	144	8	10	2	205	289	327	616	122	269	27	9	280	73	-16	+1	+0	-3	+15	-0.3
2031	24	MLB	TOR	57%	560	496	103	19	4	12	50	153	9	11	2	208	292	335	627	127	270	27	9	282	74	-17	+1	+0	-3	+16	-0.3
2032	25	MLB	TOR	60%	578	512	106	19	4	12	52	157	9	11	3	207	291	330	622	123	270	27	9	283	74	-17	+1	+0	-3	+16	-0.3
2027	20	MLB	TOR	34%	100	89	18	3	1	2	9	29	2	2	0	202	290	326	616	124	263	29	9	252	51	-6	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.3
2028	21	MLB	TOR	48%	194	172	34	6	1	4	17	55	3	4	1	198	281	314	595	116	267	28	9	261	58	-9	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
2029	22	MLB	TOR	54%	259	230	47	9	2	5	23	72	4	5	1	204	288	326	614	122	269	28	9	266	62	-11	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.5
2030	23	MLB	TOR	57%	299	265	55	10	2	6	27	82	5	6	1	208	293	328	621	121	271	27	9	270	64	-12	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.5
2031	24	MLB	TOR	57%	317	281	59	11	2	7	28	86	5	6	1	210	293	338	631	128	272	27	9	271	66	-12	+1	+0	-2	+9	-0.5
2032	25	MLB	TOR	60%	349	309	64	12	2	7	31	95	6	7	2	207	292	327	619	120	272	27	9	272	66	-13	+1	+0	-2	+10	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1518	1347	277	51	10	31	135	419	25	30	6	206	290	327	618	122	272	28	9	268	63	-64	+4	+0	-9	+43	-2.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	118	22	4	13	58	179	11	13	3	205	290	324	614	120	271	28	9	268	63	-27	+1	+0	-4	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	3195	2836	558	103	20	60	280	920	55	67	16	197	282	311	592	114	266	29	9	270	65	-127	+7	+0	-19	+91	-4.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	113	21	4	12	57	187	11	14	3	196	281	308	589	113	265	29	9	270	65	-26	+2	+0	-4	+18	-1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays	—	69	55	17	6	0	0	11	15	2	3	1	309	435	418	853	109	425	22	16	388	155	+4	+0	—	—	+2	0.7
2025	18	ROK	FCL Blue Jays	—	183	156	26	3	1	5	21	57	6	9	2	167	290	295	584	128	223	31	11	275	69	-6	+1	—	—	+5	-0.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#4Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,705	33	32	203	283	320	-10	+0	-2.0	-1.0
	/162	664	13	12	203	283	320	-4.0	+0.0	-0.8	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andres Arias (OGILVIE)	19	20	35	50	40	169/273/254	85	247	3	8	31%	10%	49	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Enger Jimenez 2014 · A	19	34	41→40	47→50	35	176/222/272	96	262	8	9	35%	5%	29	-3.2	206/257/299	93	278	6	10	26%	5%	51	-1.7	216/268/312	96	280	5	12	23%	5%	56	-0.5
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Ricardo Rosario 2022 · A	19	40	37→40	53→55	42	193/254/272	79	260	4	13	26%	6%	43	-2.2	199/267/282	83	276	6	17	28%	7%	52	-1.6	193/273/276	82	259	9	24	27%	8%	51	-0.6
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	39	39→45	45→55	38	193/252/278	85	266	7	8	29%	5%	44	-2.1	196/255/289	93	278	8	10	31%	6%	48	-1.9	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2010 · A	19	38	38→45	51→50	38	189/234/265	77	255	6	13	28%	4%	33	-2.9	216/275/340	124	268	12	12	23%	6%	70	-0.3	221/275/340	119	279	13	9	25%	5%	68	-0.2
✕Robedluis Fuentes 2008 · A	19	41	37→30	53→45	45	197/263/267	70	262	4	12	25%	7%	46	-2.0	230/290/284	54	281	3	7	18%	6%	61	-1.0	243/302/283	40	290	2	5	16%	6%	64	-0.3
✕Emilio King 2009 · A	19	38	37→45	44→40	41	184/245/258	74	245	5	6	26%	6%	36	-2.7	196/261/279	83	281	5	6	30%	5%	49	-1.8	206/259/300	94	298	6	4	31%	4%	49	-0.8
✕Ryan Vega 2016 · A	19	40	35→40	52→45	41	190/245/253	62	253	3	9	25%	5%	34	-2.8	221/274/312	91	286	8	7	24%	6%	62	-0.9	199/262/287	88	273	8	6	29%	6%	49	-0.8
✕Albert Laboy 2006 · A	19	39→38	37→40	52→45	42	187/233/255	68	227	5	9	20%	4%	29	-3.2	210/254/295	85	254	8	8	20%	5%	49	-1.8	213/261/298	85	248	10	6	18%	5%	51	-0.9
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Victor Tademo 2018 · A	19	39	37→40	52→55	37	189/240/263	74	277	4	14	32%	5%	34	-2.8	195/241/256	61	285	3	7	31%	5%	33	-2.9	181/217/201	20	252	0	3	27%	4%	6	-1.4
✕Juan Alonso 2022 · A	18	42→32	37→40	43→50	40	199/260/273	73	295	4	10	32%	6%	46	-2.0	184/285/263	79	357	5	9	44%	10%	56	-1.3	152/269/228	75	334	5	7	49%	11%	40	-1.1
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	35	41→45	47→60	41	179/238/272	93	242	10	13	30%	6%	37	-2.7	221/272/301	80	287	7	19	24%	6%	58	-1.2	235/283/299	64	302	5	24	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Richard Rodriguez 2012 · A	19	39	36→30	48→50	45	186/255/247	61	260	3	12	28%	8%	37	-2.6	210/266/251	41	261	1	14	19%	7%	42	-2.3	233/291/254	20	278	0	16	15%	7%	50	-0.6
✕Jonatan Santana 2007 · A	19	37	36→40	49→55	42	176/228/234	58	224	3	8	23%	5%	22	-3.7	198/259/261	63	244	3	12	19%	7%	42	-2.3	202/264/265	64	238	3	16	16%	7%	42	-0.7
✕Stanley Martinez 2016 · A	19	40	36→45	48→50	44	189/254/259	70	267	2	9	28%	7%	40	-2.4	203/274/293	90	276	7	8	27%	7%	58	-1.2	202/276/292	90	272	8	7	27%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Adonis Paula 2013 · A	19	37	37→40	48→40	35	180/236/252	72	281	4	8	36%	5%	30	-3.1	196/258/274	78	286	4	5	31%	6%	46	-2.0	177/237/252	75	275	4	2	35%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Rafael Mejia 2017 · A	19	37	39→40	47→50	38	184/237/267	83	263	7	6	32%	5%	34	-2.8	198/237/320	122	278	14	7	33%	4%	49	-1.8	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	56	-0.3
✕Jhonny Piron 2023 · A	19	36	40	47→55	45	179/264/268	89	265	9	11	34%	9%	48	-1.9	184/254/256	72	292	5	9	36%	7%	40	-2.4	122/192/154	32	205	0	12	37%	6%	-15	-1.4
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5