Darian Rivero — OGILVIE

Darian Rivero P ACL Cubs

+0.1 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.3 · 2028

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.5%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%11.1%

IP29

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2028

K†5060

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2024	19	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	12	11	35	168	25	24	3	10.1%	17.9%	2.4%	5.66	5.81	-0.3
2025	20	ROK	ACL Cubs	11	6	33	150	19	21	2	8.6%	17.5%	2.3%	5.18	5.87	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	MLB	CHC	29	—	29	121	26	13	4	21.5%	10.4%	3.0%	4.61	4.61	+0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	CHC	30	—	30	127	29	12	4	22.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.46	4.38	+0.2
2028	23	MLB	CHC	31	—	31	131	31	12	4	23.4%	9.0%	2.9%	4.32	4.23	+0.3
2029	24	MLB	CHC	32	—	32	135	32	12	4	23.9%	8.7%	2.8%	4.20	4.13	+0.3
2030	25	MLB	CHC	32	—	32	136	33	12	4	24.3%	8.6%	2.8%	4.12	4.07	+0.3
2031	26	MLB	CHC	32	—	32	136	33	12	4	24.5%	8.5%	2.8%	4.08	4.05	+0.3
2032	27	MLB	CHC	32	—	32	136	33	12	4	24.5%	8.6%	2.8%	4.07	4.06	+0.3
2033	28	MLB	CHC	32	—	32	133	33	11	4	24.4%	8.6%	2.9%	4.08	4.08	+0.3
2034	29	MLB	CHC	31	—	31	130	32	11	4	24.3%	8.7%	2.9%	4.11	4.13	+0.3
2035	30	MLB	CHC	30	—	30	127	31	11	4	24.1%	8.8%	3.0%	4.16	4.19	+0.3
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			23	17	68	318	30	56	7	9.4%	17.7%	2.4%	5.43	5.84	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—			68	50	200	935	88	165	21	9.4%	17.7%	2.4%	5.43	5.84	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darian Rivero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.61	21.5%	10.4%	3.0%	—	4.24	23.3%	14.2%	93	-0.37	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	94
Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP	21	SU	4.83	21.3%	11.8%	3.7%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.32	4.03	266	91
Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP	21	SU	4.40	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.62	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.22	4.40	140	91
Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP	22	SU	4.20	21.9%	9.0%	3.3%	.278	5.95	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.75	4.20	104	91
Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.92	367	91
Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.96	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.10	3.46	146	90
Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP	22	SU	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	89
Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.18	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.58	2.98	211	89
Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.66 FIP	23	SU	3.66	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.87	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.21	3.66	123	88
Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.17	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.32	3.05	195	88
Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP	21	SU	4.39	22.9%	9.7%	3.6%	.308	4.29	20.7%	14.2%	219	-0.10	4.28	247	88
Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.61	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.02	3.59	112	88
Max Gieg R 2026 · 5.14 FIP	21	SU	5.14	21.1%	11.8%	4.2%	.317	4.64	20.4%	2.3%	92	-0.50	3.95	108	88
Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.19	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.34	3.85	100	88
Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.02	20.5%	8.9%	111	+0.23	2.94	206	88
Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	23	SU	3.81	20.7%	10.2%	2.1%	.258	4.53	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.72	3.81	145	88
Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.82 FIP	23	SU	3.82	20.3%	9.9%	2.1%	.315	4.23	22.3%	13.8%	422	+0.41	3.72	483	87
Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.88	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.01	3.00	318	87
Carson Fulmer R 2026 · 4.14 FIP	21	SU	4.14	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.98	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.84	3.88	782	87
Florencio Serrano R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	21	SU	3.83	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.79	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.83	206	87

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.3	$2M	+$0.5M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	+0.3	$2M	+$1.0M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$3M