Darian Rivero — OGILVIE

Darian Rivero P ACL Cubs

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 20 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136127vR 119

ERA5.39

FIP5.39

K%19.2%

BB%14.9%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	12	11	35	168	25	24	3	92%	2.9	10.1%	17.9%	-7.7%	2.4%	5.66	5.85	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	12	11	35	168	25	24	3	92%	2.9	10.1%	17.9%	-7.7%	2.4%	5.66	5.85	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	12	11	35	168	25	24	3	92%	2.9	14.9%	14.3%	0.6%	1.8%	5.66	4.84	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	11	6	33	150	19	21	2	55%	3.0	8.6%	17.5%	-8.9%	2.2%	5.18	5.77	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Cubs	11	6	33	150	19	21	2	55%	3.0	8.6%	17.5%	-8.9%	2.2%	5.18	5.77	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Cubs	11	6	33	150	19	21	2	55%	3.0	12.7%	14.0%	-1.3%	1.3%	5.18	4.65	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CHC	4	4	20	84	16	13	3	100%	5.0	19.2%	14.9%	4.3%	3.0%	5.39	5.39	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	6	6	31	130	27	17	4	100%	5.1	20.6%	13.0%	7.6%	2.9%	5.11	5.00	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	3	3	15	63	13	8	2	100%	5.0	20.6%	13.0%	7.6%	2.9%	5.11	5.00	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	15	64	13	8	2	100%	5.0	20.6%	13.0%	7.6%	2.9%	5.11	4.62	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	172	106	26	100%	5.3	20.6%	13.0%	7.6%	2.9%	5.11	4.62	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		23	17	68	318	30	56	7	74%	3.0	9.4%	17.7%	-8.3%	2.3%	5.43	5.81	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		68	50	200	935	88	165	22	74%	3.0	9.4%	17.7%	-8.3%	2.3%	5.43	5.81	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Darian Rivero (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.39	19.2%	14.9%	3.0%	—	5.00	20.6%	7.6%	31	-0.39	—	—	—
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	84
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	84
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	82
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	82
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	81
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	81
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	81
Mac Sceroler R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	17.6%	11.8%	2.5%	.318	4.34	18.4%	10.3%	200	-0.12	3.95	275	80
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	80
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	80
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	80
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.39	20.2%	8.6%	215	-1.21	4.29	257	80
Justin Germano R 2004 · 4.49 FIP	21	SP-	4.49	14.7%	12.8%	1.8%	.377	4.12	13.8%	7.3%	133	-0.37	3.73	405	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Alonzo Tredwell R 2024 · 4.43 FIP	22	SP-	4.43	19.3%	17.4%	1.4%	.336	4.19	22.0%	9.9%	100	-0.24	4.19	166	79
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	79
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	20.0%	13.8%	1.14	5.22
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88