Carter Johnson — OGILVIE

Carter JohnsonSS Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 20 L/R 6'2" / 180 lbs A HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION346 act + 230 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†40

AVG/OBP/SLG.165 / .245 / .271

PA230

HR4

K%36

BB%8

BABIP251

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2035	Arb-2	$0.7M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.1M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	121	115	18	2	1	1	5	54	1	2	1	157	198	217	416	61	283	45	4	184	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	121	113	25	3	1	1	7	40	1	2	1	221	273	292	565	71	333	33	6	258	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	465	419	55	15	3	2	34	185	9	11	3	131	212	196	408	64	226	40	7	193	6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	465	406	72	17	4	3	47	134	9	11	3	177	277	261	538	84	254	29	10	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	MIA	—	346	304	57	14	1	9	33	132	5	9	3	188	278	329	607	141	287	38	10	275	69	-12	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.2
YTD	20	A	MIA	—	346	292	74	18	2	12	45	94	5	9	3	253	363	452	815	199	326	27	13	360	133	+13	+1	+0	+4	+10	2.8
ROS	20	A	MIA	0%	230	206	34	8	1	4	19	84	3	4	1	165	245	271	516	106	250	36	8	237	40	-16	+0	+0	+2	+7	-0.6
ROS	20	MLB	MIA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		246	—	—	223	29	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	MIA	—	346	305	57	14	1	9	33	132	5	9	3	187	278	328	606	141	286	38	10	275	69	-12	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.2
TOT	20	A	MIA	—	576	510	91	22	2	13	52	216	8	13	4	178	265	305	570	127	272	37	9	260	57	-28	+1	+0	+6	+16	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	581	518	91	21	3	11	50	205	8	8	3	176	259	292	550	116	260	35	9	251	50	-33	+0	+0	+6	+16	-1.0
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	609	542	100	23	3	13	53	206	9	9	3	185	268	310	578	125	264	34	9	262	59	-28	+1	+0	+7	+17	-0.4
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	627	558	106	24	3	15	55	206	9	9	3	190	273	324	598	134	266	33	9	270	65	-25	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.0
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	638	567	109	24	3	16	57	206	9	9	3	192	276	330	606	138	268	32	9	275	68	-23	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.3
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	637	566	109	24	3	16	57	205	9	9	3	193	277	330	607	138	268	32	9	277	70	-22	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.4
2032	26	MLB	MIA	60%	639	567	109	24	3	16	58	206	9	9	3	192	278	330	607	138	267	32	9	278	71	-21	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.4
2033	27	MLB	MIA	62%	637	565	109	24	3	16	58	205	9	9	3	193	278	331	609	138	267	32	9	278	71	-21	+1	+0	+7	+18	0.5
2034	28	MLB	MIA	63%	631	559	108	24	3	16	58	204	9	9	3	193	280	333	612	140	267	32	9	277	70	-21	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.3
2035	29	MLB	MIA	64%	621	549	106	23	3	16	58	202	9	8	2	193	281	333	614	140	266	33	9	275	69	-22	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.2
2027	21	MLB	MIA	34%	200	178	31	7	1	4	17	71	3	3	1	174	258	292	550	118	255	36	8	237	39	-14	+0	+0	+2	+6	-0.6
2028	22	MLB	MIA	48%	295	263	47	11	1	6	26	100	4	4	1	179	263	297	559	118	259	34	9	248	48	-17	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.6
2029	23	MLB	MIA	54%	340	302	56	12	2	8	30	112	5	5	2	185	270	318	588	132	261	33	9	256	54	-18	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.4
2030	24	MLB	MIA	55%	354	314	59	13	2	8	32	115	5	5	2	188	274	318	592	131	263	32	9	260	57	-17	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.3
2031	25	MLB	MIA	56%	357	317	61	13	2	9	32	115	5	5	2	192	277	331	608	139	263	32	9	262	59	-17	+0	+0	+4	+10	-0.3
2032	26	MLB	MIA	60%	384	340	65	14	2	10	35	124	6	6	2	191	278	332	611	141	263	32	9	263	60	-18	+0	+0	+4	+11	-0.2
2033	27	MLB	MIA	62%	395	350	67	15	2	10	36	127	6	6	2	191	278	331	609	140	263	32	9	263	60	-18	+0	+0	+4	+11	-0.2
2034	28	MLB	MIA	63%	398	352	67	15	2	10	37	129	6	5	2	190	278	330	608	139	262	32	9	262	59	-18	+0	-0	+4	+11	-0.3
2035	29	MLB	MIA	64%	396	350	66	14	2	10	37	129	6	5	2	189	277	326	603	137	261	33	9	261	58	-19	+0	-1	+4	+11	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3119	2767	519	114	16	75	282	1022	46	44	16	188	274	322	595	134	263	33	9	258	56	-155	+2	-1	+33	+88	-3.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	108	24	3	16	59	213	10	9	3	187	274	322	597	135	262	33	9	258	56	-32	+1	-0	+7	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	6436	5731	1054	236	32	142	562	2168	93	96	31	184	268	311	578	127	264	34	9	263	59	-295	+7	-2	+69	+182	-3.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	106	24	3	14	57	219	9	10	3	183	267	307	574	124	264	34	9	263	59	-30	+1	-0	+7	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	121	113	25	3	1	1	7	40	1	2	1	221	273	292	565	71	333	33	6	258	56	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	—	465	406	72	17	4	3	47	134	9	11	3	177	277	261	538	84	254	29	10	252	51	-26	+1	—	—	+13	-1.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	3,437	79	48	187	269	318	+37	+18	-0.9	0.2
	/162	664	15	9	187	269	318	+7.1	+3.5	-0.2	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carter Johnson (OGILVIE)	20	20	25	45	40	178/265/305	127	272	13	13	37%	9%	57	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	43	-2.2	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	40	-2.4	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	10	-1.5
✕Leandro Pineda 2022 · A	20	35→39	37→45	43→45	46	171/257/239	68	251	4	7	31%	9%	37	-2.6	189/260/297	108	280	9	5	33%	7%	53	-1.5	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Cristhian Vasquez 2017 · A	20	32	38→30	49→50	42	161/225/240	79	224	6	8	30%	7%	23	-3.6	195/251/268	73	259	4	9	25%	6%	40	-2.4	190/244/248	58	247	2	11	22%	5%	30	-1.4
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	39	38→40	47→50	39	189/242/268	78	269	6	5	31%	6%	37	-2.7	186/245/258	72	280	3	6	32%	6%	36	-2.7	147/214/205	58	225	0	6	32%	6%	7	-1.5
✕Deivis Nadal 2022 · A	20	39	35→40	46→55	38	186/250/240	55	271	3	11	31%	5%	34	-2.8	173/252/259	86	311	6	18	42%	8%	40	-2.4	145/233/240	96	278	8	23	46%	9%	25	-1.4
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	41	36→30	46→50	46	196/259/262	66	262	4	12	25%	7%	43	-2.2	196/259/262	66	296	3	8	32%	7%	43	-2.2	176/243/231	55	271	2	9	33%	7%	25	-1.1
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2007 · A	20	35	37→45	48→45	34	175/223/246	71	263	5	6	34%	4%	23	-3.6	209/264/290	81	278	5	5	25%	5%	52	-1.6	217/275/301	85	280	4	3	23%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Yeuris Ramirez 2019 · A	20	33	39→40	47→50	40	163/252/248	85	260	6	8	37%	7%	38	-2.6	191/272/288	97	316	8	13	39%	7%	56	-1.3	155/237/232	77	334	8	23	51%	6%	25	-1.2
✕Aaron Shipman 2013 · A	21	39→35	35→30	44→50	48	182/265/240	58	277	2	9	32%	10%	40	-2.4	219/302/285	66	307	2	16	26%	10%	67	-0.5	235/324/293	58	319	1	21	24%	11%	73	-0.1
✕Omar Alfonzo 2023 · A	19	36→40	37→45	48→40	48	171/261/237	65	254	5	3	32%	10%	39	-2.5	205/290/309	104	318	11	4	35%	10%	69	-0.4	200/285/307	107	317	13	2	38%	10%	64	-0.5
✕Kleiber Rodriguez 2018 · A	19	37	35→30	46→40	46	175/250/234	59	244	2	5	27%	8%	33	-2.9	219/280/288	69	282	3	5	21%	7%	58	-1.2	240/298/301	61	284	2	4	15%	8%	67	-0.2
✕Yoel Romero 2017 · A	19	33	34→40	46→50	39	162/214/214	53	232	1	9	30%	5%	11	-4.5	216/276/287	71	278	4	12	22%	7%	56	-1.3	225/285/304	78	297	6	10	25%	7%	62	-0.4
✕Nolan Perez 2019 · A	20	36	38→40	45→40	36	178/228/253	74	267	5	4	34%	5%	27	-3.3	191/230/273	82	324	6	5	41%	4%	33	-2.9	174/195/256	81	303	6	1	44%	2%	11	-1.4
✕Robert Lopez 2023 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	40	174/248/241	67	275	4	6	36%	7%	33	-2.9	194/254/283	89	295	8	4	34%	7%	46	-2.0	181/244/265	84	271	8	3	34%	7%	35	-1.0
✕Alfredo González 2012 · A	20	36	36→40	47→45	38	174/218/242	68	245	2	8	29%	5%	19	-3.9	194/246/266	72	256	4	10	25%	5%	38	-2.6	229/290/281	52	315	3	6	26%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Hector Hernandez 2015 · A	19	36	35→30	50→45	39	172/233/229	57	260	2	8	33%	6%	23	-3.6	188/259/249	61	277	2	8	30%	7%	40	-2.4	176/255/229	53	257	1	8	29%	8%	31	-1.1
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	36	36→40	45→40	46	170/263/235	65	253	4	5	32%	9%	40	-2.4	187/263/267	80	309	5	4	37%	8%	46	-2.0	184/258/270	86	308	5	2	39%	8%	42	-0.8
✕Didimo Bracho 2017 · A	20	35	37→30	48→60	34	172/222/242	69	271	5	13	37%	5%	21	-3.7	195/244/300	105	293	8	6	34%	5%	46	-2.0	181/230/321	140	251	11	3	32%	5%	41	-0.6
✕Herman Armas 2006 · A	19	37	36→45	41→50	44	179/250/243	64	257	4	7	30%	8%	35	-2.8	210/278/316	106	287	9	10	28%	7%	66	-0.6	212/283/329	117	282	11	12	27%	7%	69	-0.2
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8