Carter Johnson

2B Jupiter Hammerheads
Age 21 L/R 6'2" / 180 lbs A HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418AMIA121.221/.273/.2921217—.165/.207/.226
202519AMIA465.177/.277/.26131117—.138/.216/.202
202620A+/A/INTL2 orgs533.230/.329/.395151459—.193/.270/.323
2027PROJMLE21MLBMIA606.168/.241/.26591043-0.6
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBMIA159.170/.244/.2723352-0.5
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBMIA250.176/.251/.2875458-0.6
Next 3 projected WAR -1.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Whiff%56
Speed55
ISO51
K%49
Z-Con%43
wRC+34
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.1 / P90 0.3, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 93%
CompsRudy van Heydoorn (age 21) · Rubel Cespedes (age 21) · Victor Duarte (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA
wRC+†43
AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .239 / .262
PA210
HR3
K%33
BB%7
ISO97
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -14.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-14BATRUN: +0.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.7 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.60-0.6WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT20
scouting grade only
POWER25
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-2M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202418 AJupiter Hammerheads — 121113 25311 7401 21 221273292565 71333 336 258 17 — — — — — —
202519 AJupiter Hammerheads — 465406 721743 471349 113 177277261538 84254 2910 252 17 — — — — — —
202620 A+Beloit Sky Carp — 214194 461016 16524 84 237308392700 155294 247 314 58 — — — — — —
202620 AJupiter Hammerheads — 282235 571528 39794 62 243360426785 183322 2814 348 65 — — — — — —
202620 INTLGlendale Desert Dogs — 3732 3001 580 00 94216188404 9487 2214 199 21 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202418 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 121115 19211 5531 21 165207226433 61301 444 193 17 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 465420 581342 331799 113 138216202419 64228 387 193 17 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEBeloit Sky Carp — 214198 40815 12664 84 202262328590 126274 316 254 58 — — — — — —
202620 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 282247 461126 271074 62 186277320597 134280 3810 265 65 — — — — — —
202418 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 121115 19211 5531 21 165207226433 61295 444 193 17 — — — — — —
202418 A RAWJupiter Hammerheads — 121113 25311 7401 21 221273292565 71333 336 258 17 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 465420 581342 331799 113 138216202419 64231 387 193 17 — — — — — —
202519 A RAWJupiter Hammerheads — 465406 721743 471349 113 177277261538 84254 2910 252 17 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE3 teams — 533479 9321312 421878 146 194270326596 132285 358 260 62 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW3 teams — 533461 10625315 601398 146 230329395724 165293 2611 324 62 — — — — — —
202418 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 121114 19211 5531 21 167207228435 61301 444 193 17 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 465420 581342 331799 113 138216202419 64228 387 193 17 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE3 teams — 533478 9321312 421878 146 195270326597 132277 358 260 62 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 121114 19211 5531 21 167207228435 61301 444 193 17 — — — — — —
202519 A MLEJupiter Hammerheads — 465420 581342 331799 113 138216202419 64228 387 193 17 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE3 teams — 533478 9321312 421878 146 195270326597 132277 358 260 62 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLEMIA 0% 606548 922039 451988 103 168241265506 97241 337 232 43 -41 +1 +0 +2 +13 -0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLEMIA 34% 463419 741638 351476 83 176250286536 110244 328 245 52 -27 +0 +0 +2 +10 -1.5
202923 MLB MLEMIA 48% 515463 8618311 401597 93 182257301558 118248 318 253 58 -26 +1 +0 +2 +11 -1.3
203024 MLB MLEMIA 53% 560504 9520312 441697 103 187263311574 124251 308 260 62 -25 +1 +0 +2 +12 -1.1
203125 MLB MLEMIA 55% 578520 9920313 461727 103 191266318585 127253 308 264 65 -24 +1 +0 +2 +13 -0.9
203226 MLB MLEMIA 56% 590530 10321314 471738 103 193269322592 129255 298 267 67 -23 +1 +0 +2 +13 -0.8
203327 MLB MLEMIA 55% 590530 10221313 481747 93 192268320588 127255 298 266 66 -24 +1 +0 +2 +13 -0.8
202822 MLB CTXMIA 34% 159144 25513 12502 31 170244272517 103236 318 237 52 -9 +0 +0 +1 +3 -0.5
202923 MLB CTXMIA 48% 250226 40815 19773 41 176251287538 111239 318 246 58 -13 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.6
203024 MLB CTXMIA 53% 295266 47916 23894 52 181257297553 116242 308 252 62 -13 +0 +0 +1 +6 -0.6
203125 MLB CTXMIA 55% 316284 531027 25944 62 184260303564 119244 308 256 65 -13 +0 +0 +1 +7 -0.5
203226 MLB CTXMIA 56% 328295 551127 26964 62 187263307570 121246 298 259 67 -13 +0 +0 +1 +7 -0.4
203327 MLB CTXMIA 55% 325292 551127 26964 52 186262305567 119246 308 258 66 -13 +0 +0 +1 +7 -0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 16731507 27554935 13150221 2910 182257300557 117245 308 253 56 -74 +2 +0 +6 +36 -3.1
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 10721314 511958 114 183257300558 118245 308 253 56 -29 +1 +0 +2 +14 -1.2
Career— MLE — 46254170 7611592789 355148263 8629 182257298555 115256 328 250 56 -163 +4 +0 +13 +76 -7.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650586 10722413 502089 124 183258300558 118255 328 250 56 -30 +1 +0 +2 +14 -1.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 282 PAwOBA .343 → .265 (−78)K% 28.0% → 38.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.01%÷1.000×1.360——38.10%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.48%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0309.58%
HBP% /PA1.42%—×0.780—×1.0301.14%
Singles /BIP20.51%÷1.000×0.920×0.956×1.03018.59%
Doubles /BIP9.62%÷1.000×0.830×0.956×1.0307.86%
Triples /BIP1.28%÷1.000×0.910×0.956×1.0301.15%
Home runs /BIP5.13%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0304.23%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.956.

Result: wOBA .343 → .265; ISO .183 → .140; BABIP .322 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 214 PAwOBA .306 → .254 (−52)K% 24.3% → 30.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.30%÷1.000×1.270——30.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.48%÷1.000×0.710—×1.0425.53%
HBP% /PA1.87%—×0.790—×1.0421.54%
Singles /BIP20.42%÷1.000×0.920×1.012×1.04219.82%
Doubles /BIP7.04%÷1.000×0.810×1.012×1.0426.02%
Triples /BIP0.70%÷1.000×0.850×1.012×1.0420.63%
Home runs /BIP4.23%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0423.52%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .306 → .254; ISO .155 → .122; BABIP .294 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 465 PAwOBA .248 → .193 (−55)K% 28.8% → 38.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA28.82%÷1.014×1.360——38.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.11%÷1.018×0.690—×1.0457.16%
HBP% /PA1.94%—×0.780—×1.0451.58%
Singles /BIP17.65%÷1.019×0.920×0.955×1.04515.90%
Doubles /BIP6.25%÷0.947×0.830×0.955×1.0455.47%
Triples /BIP1.47%÷0.900×0.910×0.955×1.0451.48%
Home runs /BIP1.10%÷1.035×0.800—×1.0450.89%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 104, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 103, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.

Result: wOBA .248 → .193; ISO .084 → .067; BABIP .254 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AJupiter Hammerheads · 121 PAwOBA .252 → .193 (−59)K% 33.1% → 43.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.06%÷1.029×1.360——43.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA5.79%÷0.993×0.690—×1.0504.22%
HBP% /PA0.83%—×0.780—×1.0500.68%
Singles /BIP27.40%÷1.065×0.920×1.002×1.05024.89%
Doubles /BIP4.11%÷1.032×0.830×1.002×1.0503.48%
Triples /BIP1.37%÷0.960×0.910×1.002×1.0501.37%
Home runs /BIP1.37%÷0.888×0.800—×1.0501.30%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 113, 2B 106, 3B 92, K 106, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .252 → .193; ISO .071 → .056; BABIP .333 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .