Luis Mendez — OGILVIE

Luis Mendez3B Fresno Grizzlies

Age 23 L/R 5'11" / 157 lbs A HR +30%H +12% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION249 act + 166 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .267 / .265

PA166

HR1

K%26

BB%8

BABIP269

ISO66

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	224	204	39	6	3	3	12	68	6	12	6	191	257	294	551	103	267	30	5	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	224	194	51	10	4	5	22	48	6	12	6	263	356	433	789	170	322	21	10	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	221	204	34	6	1	5	11	86	4	8	4	167	224	279	503	113	252	39	5	221	27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	221	197	50	9	3	6	18	57	4	8	4	254	329	421	750	168	324	26	8	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	325	287	48	6	2	1	34	111	3	11	6	167	262	213	475	45	269	34	10	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A	2 teams	—	325	276	59	8	3	2	45	79	3	11	6	214	330	286	616	72	292	24	14	291	81	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	342	310	62	7	4	5	21	88	3	14	5	200	257	297	554	97	259	26	6	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	342	297	69	10	4	5	34	67	3	14	5	232	317	343	661	111	281	20	10	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	2 teams	—	187	171	29	6	3	1	12	47	0	9	2	170	224	257	481	88	224	25	6	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	ROK	2 teams	—	187	162	40	8	6	1	21	32	0	9	2	247	333	389	722	142	298	17	11	317	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A	COL	—	249	222	45	7	1	2	21	68	2	9	4	203	278	270	548	68	281	27	8	240	42	-16	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.8
YTD	23	A	COL	—	249	214	49	8	1	2	29	51	2	9	4	229	327	304	630	75	290	20	12	290	80	-6	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.3
ROS	23	A	COL	0%	166	151	30	5	1	1	13	43	1	4	2	199	267	265	532	66	271	26	8	251	50	-9	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.4
ROS	23	MLB	COL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		290	—	—	262	59	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	23	A	COL	—	249	223	45	7	1	2	21	68	2	9	4	202	278	269	547	67	279	27	8	240	42	-16	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.8
TOT	23	A	COL	—	415	373	75	12	2	3	34	111	3	13	6	201	273	268	541	67	276	27	8	244	45	-26	+0	+0	+1	+12	-1.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	COL	30%	341	309	65	11	3	4	27	87	2	7	3	210	278	304	582	94	274	26	8	264	61	-15	+0	+0	+1	+10	-0.4
2028	25	MLB	COL	44%	391	354	75	12	3	6	31	98	3	8	3	212	281	314	594	102	276	25	8	273	67	-14	+0	+0	+1	+11	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	COL	51%	422	382	84	14	3	8	34	106	3	9	3	220	289	335	624	115	277	25	8	278	71	-14	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.0
2030	27	MLB	COL	52%	431	389	85	14	3	8	36	108	3	9	3	219	290	332	621	113	277	25	8	279	72	-14	+1	+0	+2	+12	0.1
2031	28	MLB	COL	53%	434	392	85	14	3	8	36	109	3	9	3	217	288	329	617	112	276	25	8	278	71	-14	+1	-1	+2	+12	-0.1
2027	24	MLB	COL	30%	103	93	22	4	1	2	8	26	1	2	1	237	304	366	670	129	294	25	8	277	70	-3	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
2028	25	MLB	COL	44%	173	156	35	6	1	3	14	44	1	4	1	224	292	333	626	109	296	25	8	287	77	-4	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.2
2029	26	MLB	COL	51%	214	194	45	8	2	4	17	54	1	4	2	232	297	356	653	124	297	25	8	292	81	-5	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.2
2030	27	MLB	COL	52%	226	203	48	8	2	5	19	57	2	5	2	236	308	369	677	133	297	25	8	293	82	-5	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.3
2031	28	MLB	COL	53%	231	208	49	8	2	5	19	58	2	5	2	236	306	365	671	130	297	25	8	292	81	-5	+0	-0	+1	+7	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	947	855	199	34	8	19	77	239	7	20	8	233	302	358	660	125	299	25	8	289	80	-22	+1	-0	+3	+27	0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	587	136	23	5	13	53	164	5	14	5	232	301	354	656	123	298	25	8	289	80	-15	+1	-0	+2	+18	0.6
Career	—			—	3484	3153	636	101	29	50	267	951	31	100	40	202	271	300	570	98	270	27	8	256	54	-180	+4	-1	+12	+99	-6.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	118	19	5	9	50	177	6	19	7	201	270	296	566	95	268	27	8	256	54	-34	+1	-0	+2	+18	-1.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Colorado	—	224	194	51	10	4	5	22	48	6	12	6	263	356	433	789	170	322	21	10	350	126	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.3
2022	19	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	221	197	50	9	3	6	18	57	4	8	4	254	329	421	750	168	324	26	8	332	112	+3	+0	—	—	+6	0.9
2023	20	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	223	183	38	6	1	0	36	51	3	7	4	208	347	251	598	44	288	23	16	290	80	-5	-0	—	—	+6	0.1
2023	20	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	102	93	21	2	2	2	9	28	0	4	2	226	294	355	649	129	302	27	9	292	82	-2	+0	—	—	+3	0.1
2024	21	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	342	297	69	10	4	5	34	67	3	14	5	232	317	343	661	111	281	20	10	295	84	-6	+1	—	—	+10	0.4
2025	22	A	Fresno Grizzlies	—	25	23	3	1	0	0	2	10	0	0	1	130	200	174	374	43	231	40	8	180	-4	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	22	ROK	ACL Rockies	—	162	139	37	7	6	1	19	22	0	9	1	266	354	424	779	158	305	14	12	338	117	+3	+1	—	—	+5	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	1,196	18	25	214	279	317	+4	+2	-0.8	-0.4
	/162	664	10	14	214	279	317	+2.4	+0.8	-0.4	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Mendez (OGILVIE)	23	45	30	55	45	201/273/268	67	276	3	13	27%	8%	45	-1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	198/268/265	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	47	-1.9	206/304/278	72	297	4	26	29%	9%	68	-0.5	217/333/268	51	299	3	35	25%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Wang-Wei Lin 2011 · A	23	47→54	36→30	50	47	219/286/279	60	282	4	11	23%	8%	59	-1.1	232/306/301	69	302	4	9	22%	8%	72	-0.2	235/315/299	64	306	4	9	22%	9%	73	-0.1
✕Stephen Gaylor 2015 · A	23	47	37→30	52→55	39	219/266/296	77	308	4	9	29%	5%	53	-1.5	225/277/276	51	294	1	16	22%	6%	53	-1.5	223/275/262	39	293	1	19	22%	6%	45	-0.9
✕River Town 2022 · A	23	44→36	37→40	54→50	43	203/281/277	74	287	3	12	28%	7%	57	-1.2	205/290/306	101	264	9	15	24%	8%	69	-0.4	199/291/294	95	251	9	15	23%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Julio Gonzalez 2018 · A	23	48	35→30	55→50	50	223/288/289	66	286	2	12	22%	8%	62	-0.9	206/269/275	69	268	2	8	22%	8%	50	-1.8	172/237/227	55	216	0	5	19%	7%	21	-1.0
✕Patrick Biondi 2015 · A	24	45→44	36→30	50→60	45	211/268/281	70	279	3	15	24%	7%	50	-1.7	231/285/300	69	308	4	25	24%	6%	63	-0.9	239/296/296	57	318	3	32	24%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Miguel Arrendell 2011 · A	23	43	37→30	50	49	203/281/278	74	276	5	13	26%	9%	56	-1.3	218/273/311	93	277	8	8	23%	7%	61	-1.0	226/274/319	93	262	9	2	17%	6%	59	-0.4
✕Cam Coursey 2022 · A	23	42	38→40	52→55	48	201/266/278	77	257	5	16	23%	8%	50	-1.8	211/289/288	77	274	5	10	23%	9%	63	-0.9	204/298/261	57	263	3	4	21%	11%	58	-0.5
✕Jake Thomas 2016 · A	23	44	39→30	49→50	47	210/289/293	83	281	7	8	26%	8%	64	-0.8	203/284/269	66	306	2	8	31%	10%	56	-1.3	195/285/252	57	302	1	8	32%	11%	49	-0.9
✕Dallas Poulk 2011 · A	23	42	40→30	50	44	204/263/298	94	276	7	8	28%	7%	53	-1.5	210/276/281	71	300	3	9	28%	8%	54	-1.4	203/274/265	61	294	1	8	29%	8%	47	-1.3
✕Jake Peter 2016 · A	23	48→55	36→40	54→50	42	226/268/294	68	293	3	12	24%	5%	53	-1.5	232/280/321	89	316	7	9	27%	6%	66	-0.6	229/280/321	92	317	9	8	29%	6%	63	-0.6
✕Elias Arias 2016 · A	22	45	36→30	46→55	46	211/274/274	63	275	4	13	24%	7%	52	-1.6	200/254/283	83	304	6	9	34%	6%	46	-2.0	161/210/245	83	254	7	9	38%	5%	13	-0.9
✕Michael DeJesus 2006 · A	23	43→51	36→30	50→45	50	200/287/267	67	290	3	11	30%	10%	56	-1.3	224/299/284	60	278	4	7	19%	10%	66	-0.6	229/306/286	57	278	4	5	18%	10%	66	-0.5
✕Devyn Bolasky 2016 · A	23	44	37→30	47→45	49	208/276/280	73	252	4	12	19%	7%	55	-1.4	230/278/306	76	279	3	7	18%	5%	61	-1.0	251/293/319	68	300	1	3	16%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Alvaro Rondon 2015 · A	24	45	36→30	53→55	41	214/255/286	72	286	3	10	26%	5%	46	-2.0	225/270/293	68	293	2	16	22%	6%	54	-1.4	244/285/300	56	307	0	27	19%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Nate Sutton 2006 · A	23	46→56	37→40	51→50	47	216/279/292	75	281	3	12	23%	7%	58	-1.2	239/287/335	96	295	8	16	21%	6%	72	-0.2	252/299/330	78	307	4	17	18%	6%	73	-0.1
✕Alvaro Ramirez 2009 · A	23	45	38→40	49→55	46	213/277/299	86	263	5	15	20%	6%	60	-1.0	238/293/315	77	287	5	16	18%	5%	70	-0.3	298/358/375	77	330	4	27	10%	5%	111	+1.0
✕James Rapoport 2008 · A	23	43→53	34→40	53→55	42	201/250/254	53	275	2	18	27%	6%	36	-2.7	232/285/302	70	292	4	16	20%	6%	63	-0.8	246/303/316	71	297	4	13	18%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Davis Bradshaw 2021 · A	23	46	36→40	52→50	39	218/261/285	67	284	3	12	24%	4%	49	-1.8	252/304/325	73	318	4	11	21%	5%	77	+0.1	270/323/338	69	342	4	10	21%	5%	85	+0.4
✕Casey Turgeon 2016 · A	23	44	37→40	50→45	54	207/299/281	74	259	4	9	20%	10%	66	-0.6	209/295/308	99	267	8	7	23%	10%	71	-0.3	201/292/309	108	254	10	5	23%	10%	68	-0.2