Luis Mendez
3B Fresno Grizzlies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | ACOL | 342 | .232/.317/.343 | 5 | 14 | 49 | — | .201/.260/.291 |
| 2025 | 22 | A/ROKCOL | 187 | .247/.333/.389 | 1 | 9 | 31 | — | .175/.224/.274 |
| 2026 | 23 | ACOL | 261 | .224/.327/.296 | 2 | 9 | 43 | — | .197/.272/.262 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCOL | 311 | .197/.260/.272 | 2 | 6 | 51 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBCOL | 48 | .213/.276/.314 | 1 | 1 | 57 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | — | 224 | 194 | 51 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 48 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 263 | 356 | 433 | 789 | 170 | 322 | 21 | 10 | 350 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 221 | 197 | 50 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 57 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 254 | 329 | 421 | 750 | 168 | 324 | 26 | 8 | 332 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 223 | 183 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 51 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 208 | 347 | 251 | 598 | 44 | 288 | 23 | 16 | 290 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 102 | 93 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 226 | 294 | 355 | 649 | 129 | 302 | 27 | 9 | 292 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 342 | 297 | 69 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 67 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 232 | 317 | 343 | 661 | 111 | 281 | 20 | 10 | 295 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 25 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 130 | 200 | 174 | 374 | 43 | 231 | 40 | 8 | 180 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK | ACL Rockies | — | 162 | 139 | 37 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 22 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 266 | 354 | 424 | 779 | 158 | 305 | 14 | 12 | 338 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 261 | 223 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 54 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 224 | 327 | 296 | 623 | 72 | 286 | 21 | 12 | 288 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Colorado | — | 224 | 202 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 58 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 163 | 239 | 243 | 481 | 79 | 209 | 26 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 221 | 204 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 84 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 228 | 279 | 508 | 108 | 250 | 38 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 223 | 192 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 70 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 182 | 293 | 219 | 512 | 36 | 280 | 31 | 12 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 102 | 96 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 135 | 186 | 198 | 384 | 62 | 230 | 39 | 6 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 342 | 309 | 62 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 90 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 201 | 260 | 291 | 552 | 91 | 256 | 26 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 25 | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 83 | 120 | 125 | 245 | 42 | 197 | 56 | 4 | 108 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 162 | 148 | 28 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 32 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 189 | 241 | 297 | 538 | 108 | 221 | 20 | 6 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 261 | 233 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 73 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 197 | 272 | 262 | 534 | 64 | 265 | 28 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Colorado | — | 224 | 202 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 58 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 163 | 239 | 243 | 481 | 79 | 215 | 26 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Colorado | — | 224 | 194 | 51 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 48 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 263 | 356 | 433 | 789 | 170 | 322 | 21 | 10 | 350 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 221 | 204 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 84 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 228 | 279 | 508 | 108 | 263 | 38 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Rockies | — | 221 | 197 | 50 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 57 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 254 | 329 | 421 | 750 | 168 | 324 | 26 | 8 | 332 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 325 | 289 | 48 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 111 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 166 | 256 | 211 | 467 | 45 | 266 | 34 | 10 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 325 | 276 | 59 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 79 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 214 | 330 | 286 | 616 | 72 | 292 | 24 | 14 | 291 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 342 | 309 | 62 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 90 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 201 | 260 | 291 | 552 | 91 | 266 | 26 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 342 | 297 | 69 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 67 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 232 | 317 | 343 | 661 | 111 | 281 | 20 | 10 | 295 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 171 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 46 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 175 | 230 | 275 | 504 | 99 | 230 | 25 | 6 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 187 | 162 | 40 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 32 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 247 | 333 | 389 | 722 | 142 | 298 | 17 | 11 | 317 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 261 | 233 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 73 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 197 | 272 | 262 | 534 | 64 | 277 | 28 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A RAW | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 261 | 223 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 32 | 54 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 224 | 327 | 296 | 623 | 72 | 286 | 21 | 12 | 288 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Colorado | — | 224 | 202 | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 58 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 163 | 239 | 243 | 481 | 79 | 209 | 26 | 6 | 216 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Rockies | — | 221 | 204 | 35 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 84 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 172 | 228 | 279 | 508 | 108 | 250 | 38 | 5 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 325 | 287 | 48 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 111 | 3 | 11 | 6 | 167 | 256 | 213 | 469 | 45 | 264 | 34 | 10 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 342 | 314 | 62 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 90 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 197 | 260 | 287 | 547 | 89 | 256 | 26 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 173 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 46 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 173 | 230 | 272 | 501 | 98 | 218 | 25 | 6 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 261 | 235 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 73 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 196 | 272 | 260 | 532 | 64 | 265 | 28 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 342 | 314 | 62 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 90 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 197 | 260 | 287 | 547 | 89 | 256 | 26 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 187 | 173 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 46 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 173 | 230 | 272 | 501 | 98 | 218 | 25 | 6 | 215 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A MLE | Fresno Grizzlies | — | 261 | 235 | 46 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 73 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 196 | 272 | 260 | 532 | 64 | 265 | 28 | 8 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | COL | 0% | 311 | 283 | 56 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 85 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 197 | 260 | 272 | 532 | 75 | 269 | 27 | 7 | 243 | 51 | -18 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | COL | 30% | 159 | 145 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 266 | 289 | 555 | 88 | 271 | 27 | 8 | 253 | 57 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | COL | 30% | 48 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 276 | 314 | 590 | 101 | 285 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 57 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 44 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 312 | 409 | 722 | 159 | 333 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 41 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 150 | 27 | 14 | 14 | 54 | 176 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 252 | 314 | 414 | 728 | 163 | 335 | 27 | 8 | 267 | 41 | -33 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1848 | 1671 | 306 | 48 | 17 | 17 | 134 | 540 | 20 | 69 | 29 | 183 | 252 | 263 | 515 | 80 | 257 | 29 | 7 | 229 | 41 | -16 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 588 | 108 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 190 | 7 | 24 | 10 | 184 | 252 | 264 | 516 | 80 | 258 | 29 | 7 | 229 | 41 | -35 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AFresno Grizzlies · 261 PAwOBA .282 → .232 (−50)K% 20.7% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 8.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 21.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 4.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 0.55% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 0.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .282 → .232; ISO .072 → .058; BABIP .286 → .265. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Rockies · 162 PAwOBA .330 → .231 (−98)K% 13.6% → 19.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.58% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.70% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.49% | ÷0.987 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.965 | 6.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.66% | ÷1.021 | ×0.820 | ×0.990 | ×0.965 | 15.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.98% | ÷0.991 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.965 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.990 | ×0.965 | 3.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.85% | ÷0.970 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.965 | 0.66% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 104, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .330 → .231; ISO .158 → .106; BABIP .305 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AFresno Grizzlies · 25 PAwOBA .175 → .108 (−67)K% 40.0% → 57.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.00% | ÷0.951 | ×1.360 | — | — | 57.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 4.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.022 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.990 | 13.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.055 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.990 | 5.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.870 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 104, 2B 111, 3B 103, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .175 → .108; ISO .043 → .025; BABIP .231 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AFresno Grizzlies · 342 PAwOBA .289 → .240 (−49)K% 19.6% → 26.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.59% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.65% | ÷1.064 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×1.028 | — | 20.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.081 | ×0.830 | ×1.028 | — | 3.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.74% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.028 | — | 1.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.002 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.74% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 103, 2B 116, 3B 80, K 102, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.028.
Result: wOBA .289 → .240; ISO .111 → .094; BABIP .281 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFresno Grizzlies · 223 PAwOBA .284 → .238 (−46)K% 22.9% → 31.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.87% | ÷0.987 | ×1.360 | — | — | 31.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.14% | ÷0.952 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 11.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.07% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.48% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 23.01% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.946 | ×0.830 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.76% | ÷0.941 | ×0.910 | ×1.037 | ×1.015 | 0.77% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.186 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 88, K 97, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.
Result: wOBA .284 → .238; ISO .044 → .039; BABIP .288 → .280. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Rockies · 102 PAwOBA .285 → .183 (−102)K% 27.5% → 39.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.45% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 39.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷0.999 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.40% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.08% | ÷0.976 | ×0.820 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | 18.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.006 | ×0.720 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | 2.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.137 | ×0.720 | ×0.970 | ×0.985 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.08% | ÷1.031 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.29% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 95, 2B 101, 3B 127, K 99, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .285 → .183; ISO .129 → .077; BABIP .302 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Rockies · 221 PAwOBA .326 → .222 (−104)K% 25.8% → 37.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.79% | ÷0.980 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.90% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.14% | ÷0.981 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 5.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.81% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.30% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.035 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 18.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.43% | ÷0.979 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 4.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.14% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷0.918 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.62% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 107, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 96, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .326 → .222; ISO .168 → .115; BABIP .324 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Colorado · 224 PAwOBA .344 → .216 (−128)K% 21.4% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.43% | ÷1.007 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.82% | ÷1.067 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.87% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.92% | ÷0.978 | ×0.680 | ×1.015 | ×0.995 | 15.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.85% | ÷1.061 | ×0.600 | ×1.015 | ×0.995 | 3.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.023 | ×0.600 | ×1.015 | ×0.995 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.138 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 1.41% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 96, 2B 112, 3B 105, K 101, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .344 → .216; ISO .170 → .086; BABIP .322 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).