Carlos Canales — OGILVIE

Carlos Canales P DSL Brewers Blue

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 160 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 12 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144136vR 128

ERA5.85

FIP5.85

K%18.9%

BB%18.7%

K-BB%0.1%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	11	3	39	173	25	18	5	27%	3.5	9.8%	13.0%	-3.2%	3.7%	7.85	5.94	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 1	11	3	39	173	25	18	5	27%	3.5	9.8%	13.0%	-3.2%	3.7%	7.85	5.94	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 1	11	3	39	173	25	18	5	27%	3.5	14.5%	10.4%	4.0%	2.9%	7.85	4.87	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	11	0	25	102	19	10	0	0%	2.3	12.7%	12.3%	0.4%	0.0%	2.16	3.58	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	11	0	25	102	19	10	0	0%	2.3	12.7%	12.3%	0.4%	0.0%	2.16	3.58	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	11	0	25	102	19	10	0	0%	2.3	18.6%	9.8%	8.8%	0.0%	2.16	2.78	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	13	0	14	76	13	19	0	0%	1.1	11.6%	31.2%	-19.6%	0.0%	10.93	6.08	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	13	0	14	76	13	19	0	0%	1.1	11.6%	31.2%	-19.6%	0.0%	10.93	6.08	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	13	0	14	76	13	19	0	0%	1.1	17.1%	25.0%	-7.9%	0.0%	10.93	5.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIL	11	0	12	51	10	9	1	0%	1.1	18.9%	18.7%	0.1%	2.9%	5.85	5.85	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIL	22	0	24	100	20	16	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.7%	4.8%	2.9%	5.46	5.30	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIL	11	0	12	51	10	8	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.7%	4.8%	2.9%	5.46	5.30	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	10	8	1	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.7%	4.8%	2.9%	5.46	4.92	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	138	17	0%	1.1	20.5%	15.7%	4.8%	2.9%	5.46	4.92	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		35	3	78	351	39	59	6	9%	2.2	11.0%	16.7%	-5.7%	1.8%	6.58	5.28	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	8	200	900	99	151	16	9%	2.2	11.0%	16.7%	-5.7%	1.8%	6.58	5.28	-1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carlos Canales (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.85	18.9%	18.7%	2.9%	—	5.30	20.5%	4.8%	24	-0.55	—	—	—
Conor Grady R 2021 · 5.28 FIP	22	SU	5.28	17.2%	19.0%	2.2%	.242	4.62	16.9%	5.1%	96	-0.66	4.62	108	88
Michael Perez R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	21	SU	5.44	18.3%	16.1%	3.4%	.296	4.65	23.4%	7.7%	132	-0.79	4.38	153	87
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	86
Paul Gervase R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	22	SU	4.91	20.3%	16.2%	2.7%	.345	3.76	29.3%	16.0%	152	-1.15	3.38	211	85
Jackson Rose R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	17.3%	17.2%	2.8%	.267	4.77	23.5%	16.5%	56	-0.55	3.33	147	84
Jaydenn Estanista R 2023 · 6.67 FIP	21	SU	6.67	16.7%	25.7%	3.1%	.348	4.95	21.5%	5.6%	143	-1.72	4.59	230	84
Cory Thompson R 2017 · 5.42 FIP	22	SU	5.42	15.2%	15.7%	2.9%	.289	4.34	16.3%	10.6%	131	-1.08	3.59	218	84
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	84
Tommy DeJuneas R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	21	SU	4.72	19.1%	15.5%	2.3%	.357	4.59	20.8%	4.9%	100	-0.13	3.93	178	84
Adilson Peralta R 2024 · 5.29 FIP	21	SU	5.29	20.9%	17.5%	3.2%	.316	5.11	18.7%	3.0%	83	-0.18	3.79	181	84
Keith Rogalla R 2017 · 4.87 FIP	21	SU	4.87	15.9%	19.1%	1.3%	.299	3.52	21.2%	9.5%	24	-1.35	3.10	113	83
Tommy McCollum R 2021 · 6.21 FIP	22	SU	6.21	17.1%	27.2%	2.0%	.235	3.80	26.4%	10.9%	112	-2.41	2.90	219	83
José Mesa Jr. R 2016 · 5.41 FIP	22	SU	5.41	22.4%	17.2%	3.7%	.311	4.00	22.8%	9.6%	113	-1.41	3.33	176	83
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	82
Brett Hanewich R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	22	SU	5.18	15.9%	17.6%	2.2%	.372	4.32	20.3%	2.8%	108	-0.86	4.24	134	82
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	82
Yovanny Cabrera R 2022 · 6.15 FIP	21	SU	6.15	17.5%	19.5%	3.8%	.274	4.91	18.2%	1.9%	128	-1.24	4.39	243	82
Nick Kuzia R 2017 · 5.18 FIP	21	SU	5.18	16.5%	15.2%	2.8%	.361	5.35	17.6%	6.6%	60	+0.17	4.54	231	82
Will McAffer R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	22	SU	4.68	20.4%	18.1%	1.8%	.270	5.96	18.5%	-4.0%	77	+1.28	4.68	133	82
Elison Joseph R 2022 · 4.91 FIP	21	SU	4.91	19.6%	20.3%	1.6%	.310	4.33	24.8%	6.9%	138	-0.58	3.32	217	82