Samuel Carpio

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 200 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	22	AMIA	34	52	5.16	4.32	29.8%	21.4%	—	K 22.0% · BB 25.3% · FIP 5.54
2026	23	AMIA	41	60	5.10	4.02	28.8%	21.1%	—	K 21.3% · BB 24.8% · FIP 5.20
2027PROJ	24	MLBMIA	64	67	5.67	5.67	21.7%	20.0%	-0.8
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBMIA	28	29	5.40	5.31	22.3%	17.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBMIA	43	45	5.26	5.21	22.6%	16.8%	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control20Command30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsTaylor Floyd (age 24) · Ryan Sublette (age 24) · Jacob Webb (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%21.7%

BB%20.0%

K-BB%1.7%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD3030

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	5	0	7	36	9	7	1	0%	1.5	25.0%	19.4%	5.6%	2.8%	7.36	4.98	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	5	0	7	36	9	7	1	0%	1.5	25.0%	19.4%	5.6%	2.8%	7.36	5.28	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	16	0	22	90	28	11	1	0%	1.4	21.2%	15.3%	5.9%	1.7%	2.49	4.20	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	16	0	22	90	28	11	1	0%	1.4	21.2%	15.3%	5.9%	1.7%	2.49	4.20	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	16	0	22	90	28	11	1	0%	1.4	31.1%	12.2%	18.9%	1.1%	2.49	2.64	—
2025	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	34	0	52	252	75	54	4	0%	1.5	22.0%	25.3%	-3.3%	2.0%	5.16	5.54	—
2025	22	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	34	0	52	252	75	54	4	0%	1.5	22.0%	25.3%	-3.3%	2.0%	5.16	5.54	—
2025	22	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	34	0	52	252	75	54	4	0%	1.5	29.8%	21.4%	8.3%	1.6%	5.16	4.32	—
2026	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	41	0	60	285	82	60	3	0%	1.5	21.3%	24.8%	-3.6%	1.4%	5.10	5.20	—
2026	23	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	41	0	60	285	82	60	3	0%	1.5	21.3%	24.8%	-3.6%	1.4%	5.10	5.20	—
2026	23	A RAW	Jupiter Hammerheads	41	0	60	285	82	60	3	0%	1.5	28.8%	21.1%	7.7%	1.1%	5.10	4.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	MIA	64	0	67	283	62	57	8	0%	1.0	21.7%	20.0%	1.7%	2.7%	5.67	5.67	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	64	50	8	0%	1.0	22.3%	17.4%	4.8%	2.7%	5.40	5.31	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	65	0	68	287	65	48	8	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.8%	5.8%	2.8%	5.26	5.21	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	64	0	67	283	64	47	8	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.5%	6.1%	2.8%	5.21	5.21	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	62	0	65	274	62	45	8	0%	1.0	22.5%	16.5%	6.0%	2.9%	5.24	5.27	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	28	0	29	122	27	21	3	0%	1.0	22.3%	17.4%	4.8%	2.7%	5.40	5.31	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	43	0	45	190	43	32	5	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.8%	5.8%	2.8%	5.26	5.21	-0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	50	0	52	220	50	36	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	16.5%	6.1%	2.8%	5.21	5.21	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	52	0	55	232	52	38	7	0%	1.1	22.5%	16.5%	6.0%	2.9%	5.24	5.27	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	762	172	127	21	0%	1.0	22.5%	16.7%	5.8%	2.8%	5.26	4.86	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	141	23	0%	1.1	22.5%	16.7%	5.8%	2.8%	5.26	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		96	0	141	663	144	155	11	0%	1.5	21.8%	23.4%	-1.7%	1.7%	4.84	5.18	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		136	0	200	938	204	220	16	0%	1.5	21.8%	23.4%	-1.7%	1.7%	4.84	5.18	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Carpio (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	21.7%	20.0%	2.7%	—	5.24	22.5%	5.6%	203	-0.43	—	—	—
Taylor Floyd R 2022 · 4.84 FIP	24	SU	4.84	19.6%	18.4%	1.9%	.305	4.30	19.8%	10.2%	184	-0.54	3.48	359	89
Ryan Sublette R 2023 · 5.72 FIP	24	SU	5.72	21.4%	22.3%	2.9%	.278	5.06	19.2%	3.8%	102	-0.66	3.74	203	88
Jacob Webb R 2023 · 4.55 FIP	24	SU	4.55	19.8%	15.3%	2.1%	.283	4.54	19.0%	8.4%	155	-0.01	3.33	268	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Zane Russell R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	24	SU	4.95	22.7%	18.3%	2.6%	.314	5.36	18.2%	6.7%	71	+0.41	4.63	108	86
Caleb Simpson R 2017 · 5.37 FIP	25	SU	5.37	23.7%	17.2%	3.8%	.263	3.93	23.5%	5.1%	71	-1.44	3.57	197	86
Kris Hall R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	18.3%	17.8%	1.5%	.281	7.01	12.7%	-7.8%	34	+2.38	4.63	106	86
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	85
Tommy DeJuneas R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	23	SU	5.15	20.8%	18.8%	2.6%	.324	5.65	13.7%	-3.9%	51	+0.50	3.93	178	85
Christian Ruebeck R 2024 · 6.03 FIP	23	SU	6.03	20.6%	24.4%	2.9%	.265	4.57	21.6%	1.9%	70	-1.46	4.35	104	85
Noah Murdock R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.8%	17.1%	1.8%	.314	3.13	23.1%	9.6%	148	-1.43	2.57	310	85
Jacob Morris R 2015 · 5.43 FIP	24	SU	5.43	18.0%	19.6%	2.5%	.218	4.77	18.7%	-2.4%	46	-0.66	4.77	102	84
Hudson Leach R 2024 · 5.37 FIP	22	SU	5.37	20.5%	20.0%	2.7%	.261	4.54	20.9%	3.1%	71	-0.83	2.77	101	84
Will Varmette R 2024 · 5.06 FIP	21	SU	5.06	22.8%	19.3%	2.6%	.302	5.13	16.1%	2.3%	135	+0.07	4.69	182	84
Yunior Montero R 2017 · 5.21 FIP	24	SU	5.21	21.3%	17.6%	3.1%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	127	83
Sal Biasi R 2019 · 5.22 FIP	23	SU	5.22	20.1%	15.8%	3.3%	.295	7.66	15.3%	-0.2%	23	+2.44	4.68	188	83
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	83
Antonio Knowles R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	20.9%	15.1%	2.4%	.250	3.28	20.9%	11.7%	66	-1.30	3.24	223	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	22.3%	17.4%	1.08	5.36
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Derrick Turnbow ('08)	1.3	64	23.4%	14.8%	0.87	4.30
Ken Wright ('70-'74, -0 WAR*)	1.2	79	23.8%*	16.1%*	0.70*	5.24*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*