Moises Morales — OGILVIE

Moises Morales P Hickory Crawdads

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 175 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.32

FIP5.32

K%16.5%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%3.4%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†4045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	4	0	5	29	3	3	2	0%	1.2	10.3%	10.3%	0.0%	6.9%	7.20	7.32	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	4	0	5	29	3	3	2	0%	1.2	10.3%	10.3%	0.0%	6.9%	7.20	7.32	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	4	0	5	29	3	3	2	0%	1.2	10.3%	10.3%	0.0%	6.9%	7.20	8.90	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	14	0	29	116	34	12	2	0%	2.1	19.9%	12.9%	7.0%	1.8%	1.84	4.05	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	14	0	29	116	34	12	2	0%	2.1	19.9%	12.9%	7.0%	1.8%	1.84	4.05	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	14	0	29	116	34	12	2	0%	2.1	29.3%	10.3%	19.0%	1.7%	1.84	2.90	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	14	4	41	179	41	16	1	29%	2.9	15.6%	11.2%	4.4%	0.6%	3.51	3.53	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	14	4	41	179	41	16	1	29%	2.9	15.6%	11.2%	4.4%	0.6%	3.51	3.53	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	14	4	41	179	41	16	1	29%	2.9	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	0.6%	3.51	2.59	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	22	13	101	391	100	25	10	59%	4.6	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	3.4%	3.22	4.30	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	22	13	101	391	100	25	10	59%	4.6	19.4%	7.5%	11.9%	3.4%	3.22	4.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	TEX	21	12	98	378	99	24	10	57%	4.7	26.2%	6.3%	19.8%	2.6%	3.13	3.14	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	TEX	1	1	3	13	1	1	0	100%	3.0	7.7%	7.7%	0.0%	0.0%	6.00	3.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	TEX	97	0	102	432	77	52	12	0%	1.1	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	2.8%	5.11	5.04	-0.6
2028	24	MLB MLE	TEX	100	0	105	443	83	50	12	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.2%	7.5%	2.8%	4.94	4.87	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	TEX	101	0	106	448	87	49	13	0%	1.1	19.3%	10.9%	8.5%	2.8%	4.82	4.77	-0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	TEX	101	0	106	448	88	48	13	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.76	4.73	-0.2
2031	27	MLB MLE	TEX	100	0	105	442	87	48	13	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	-0.3
2032	28	MLB MLE	TEX	97	0	102	429	83	47	13	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.82	4.86	-0.4
2033	29	MLB MLE	TEX	92	0	97	409	79	46	13	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	3.1%	4.92	4.99	-0.5
2034	30	MLB MLE	TEX	87	0	91	385	73	44	13	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.5%	7.4%	3.3%	5.07	5.16	-0.6
2027	23	MLB CTX	TEX	48	0	50	211	38	25	6	0%	1.0	17.9%	11.9%	6.0%	2.8%	5.11	5.04	-0.3
2028	24	MLB CTX	TEX	70	0	73	308	58	35	9	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.2%	7.5%	2.8%	4.94	4.87	-0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	TEX	82	0	86	363	70	40	10	0%	1.0	19.3%	10.9%	8.5%	2.8%	4.82	4.77	-0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	TEX	89	0	93	393	77	42	11	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	2.8%	4.76	4.73	-0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	TEX	90	0	94	397	78	43	11	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.77	-0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	TEX	89	0	93	393	76	43	12	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.0%	8.5%	3.0%	4.82	4.86	-0.3
2033	29	MLB CTX	TEX	86	0	90	380	73	43	12	0%	1.0	19.2%	11.2%	8.0%	3.1%	4.92	4.99	-0.4
2034	30	MLB CTX	TEX	81	0	85	359	68	41	12	0%	1.0	18.9%	11.5%	7.4%	3.3%	5.07	5.16	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		634	0	666	2811	539	313	83	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	4.89	4.51	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	162	94	25	0%	1.1	19.2%	11.1%	8.1%	2.9%	4.89	4.51	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		54	17	176	715	130	67	19	31%	3.3	18.2%	9.4%	8.7%	2.6%	3.17	4.19	-3.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	19	200	813	147	76	21	31%	3.3	18.2%	9.4%	8.7%	2.6%	3.17	4.19	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Moises Morales (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.32	16.5%	13.1%	2.9%	—	4.89	18.7%	7.3%	313	-0.43	—	—	—
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	88
Ryan Long R 2022 · 4.33 FIP	22	SW	4.33	17.1%	11.6%	2.2%	.263	4.69	16.6%	7.3%	292	+0.36	4.20	430	86
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Justin Ferrell R 2016 · 5.30 FIP	22	SW	5.30	14.9%	14.0%	3.1%	.261	4.34	20.4%	9.1%	173	-0.96	3.83	300	85
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	84
Josh Gessner R 2022 · 5.47 FIP	22	SW	5.47	17.0%	15.0%	3.5%	.299	5.35	12.0%	-10.1%	34	-0.12	2.98	126	84
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	84
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	83
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	83
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	82
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	82
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.1%	265	+0.44	3.31	408	81
Trent Fennell R 2018 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	14.5%	12.5%	1.9%	.317	4.46	20.9%	7.5%	89	-0.02	4.08	163	81
Ben Ethridge R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	14.4%	13.2%	1.7%	.250	6.04	13.0%	2.0%	66	+1.59	4.45	144	81
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	15.4%	8.7%	3.3%	.310	6.28	16.6%	1.7%	52	+1.57	4.59	120	81
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	81
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	80
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.53	352	80
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	95	19.0%	11.3%	1.13	4.92
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88