Conrad Cason

1B FCL Red Sox

Age 20 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1949ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	19	ROKBOS	16	.267/.312/.733	2	0	88	—	.200/.250/.467
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBBOS	126	.239/.287/.435	5	1	99	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBBOS	26	.247/.297/.444	1	0	101	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBBOS	80	.248/.299/.445	3	1	102	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$1M2033Arb-2$2M2034Arb-3$3M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsAndy Pages (age 21) · Eric Arce (age 20) · Eric Campbell (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 24 proj PA

wRC+†99

AVG/OBP/SLG.237 / .285 / .431

PA24

HR1

K%28

BB%6

ISO196

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.9M		$3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	16	15	4	1	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	267	312	733	1.046	467	200	19	6	441	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	16	15	3	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	200	250	467	717	267	147	25	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	16	15	3	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	200	250	467	717	267	200	25	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	16	15	4	1	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	267	312	733	1.046	467	200	19	6	441	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	16	15	3	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	200	250	467	717	267	147	25	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	16	15	3	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	200	250	467	717	267	147	25	6	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	126	117	28	6	1	5	7	35	1	1	0	239	287	435	722	196	291	28	6	315	99	-0	+0	+0	-2	+3	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	77	72	17	4	0	3	5	21	0	1	0	240	291	436	727	196	292	27	6	318	101	+0	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	166	154	38	8	1	7	10	45	1	1	1	241	293	437	730	196	293	27	6	319	102	+0	-0	+0	-3	+4	0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	259	239	59	12	2	11	16	69	2	2	1	242	295	437	733	195	293	27	6	321	103	+1	+0	+0	-5	+6	0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	345	318	78	16	2	14	22	91	2	3	1	243	297	437	735	194	294	26	6	322	104	+2	+0	+0	-6	+7	0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	394	362	88	18	2	16	26	103	3	3	1	244	299	436	735	193	294	26	7	322	104	+2	+0	+0	-7	+9	0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	425	391	95	20	2	17	28	111	3	3	1	243	298	436	734	192	294	26	7	322	104	+2	+0	+0	-8	+9	0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	437	402	97	20	2	17	29	115	3	3	1	242	297	433	731	191	293	26	7	320	103	+1	+0	+0	-8	+9	0.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	440	405	97	20	2	17	29	116	3	2	1	240	295	429	724	188	292	26	7	317	101	+0	+0	-1	-8	+10	0.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	434	400	96	20	2	17	28	116	3	0	1	238	292	422	715	184	290	27	6	314	98	-1	-0	-1	-8	+9	-0.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	425	392	92	19	2	16	27	115	3	0	1	235	289	415	703	180	288	27	6	309	95	-2	-0	-2	-8	+9	-0.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	408	377	88	18	2	15	26	112	2	0	1	231	284	405	688	174	285	27	6	303	91	-4	-0	-3	-7	+9	-0.6
2039	32	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	387	358	80	16	2	13	24	108	2	0	0	225	277	392	669	167	281	28	6	295	86	-7	+0	-4	-7	+8	-0.9
2028	21	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	26	24	5	1	0	1	2	7	0	0	0	247	297	444	741	198	303	27	8	324	101	+0	+0	+0	-0	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	80	74	18	4	0	3	5	21	1	1	0	248	299	445	745	197	304	26	6	325	102	+0	+0	+0	-1	+2	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	140	129	33	7	1	6	9	37	1	1	1	249	302	446	747	197	304	26	6	327	103	+1	-0	+0	-3	+3	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	191	176	44	10	1	7	12	50	1	2	1	250	304	446	750	196	305	26	6	328	104	+1	+0	+0	-3	+4	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	221	203	51	11	1	9	14	58	2	2	1	250	305	445	750	194	305	26	6	328	104	+1	+0	+0	-4	+5	0.2
2033	26	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	239	219	54	12	1	9	16	62	2	2	1	250	305	444	749	194	305	26	7	328	104	+1	+0	+0	-4	+5	0.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	242	222	54	12	1	9	16	63	2	2	1	249	304	442	745	193	304	26	7	326	103	+1	+0	+0	-4	+5	0.2
2035	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	241	221	54	12	1	9	16	64	2	1	1	247	302	437	739	190	303	27	7	324	101	+0	-0	-0	-4	+5	0.1
2036	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	232	214	53	12	1	9	15	62	1	0	1	245	299	431	730	186	301	27	6	320	98	-0	-0	-1	-4	+5	-0.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	224	207	50	11	1	8	14	61	1	0	0	242	295	423	718	182	299	27	6	315	95	-1	+0	-1	-4	+5	-0.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	213	197	46	10	1	7	13	58	1	0	0	237	290	413	703	176	296	27	6	309	91	-2	+0	-1	-4	+5	-0.3
2039	32	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	201	186	44	10	1	7	12	56	1	0	0	232	283	400	684	169	291	28	6	301	86	-3	+0	-2	-4	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2250	2072	506	112	10	84	144	599	15	11	7	244	298	430	728	185	302	27	6	321	99	-3	-1	-6	-40	+49	-0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	146	32	3	24	42	173	4	3	2	244	298	427	726	184	301	27	6	321	99	-1	-0	-2	-12	+14	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4237	3908	933	193	21	165	272	1133	27	18	10	239	293	426	718	187	292	27	6	314	99	-5	-0	-10	-75	+91	-0.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	143	30	3	25	42	174	4	3	2	238	293	423	716	185	292	27	6	314	99	-1	-0	-2	-12	+14	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 16 PAwOBA .426 → .299 (−128)K% 18.8% → 27.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.75%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	27.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.25%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	3.86%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.995	6.80%
Doubles /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	5.97%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.995	12.93%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .426 → .299; ISO .467 → .330; BABIP .200 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Duvalllast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,723 PA	5.6	3,723	195	22	227	287	459	-31	+11	11.0	11.8
/162	664	35	4	-5.5	+2.0	2.0	pk7: 13
#2Phil Plantier'90-'97 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,165 PA	3.3	2,165	91	13	234*	322*	444*	-25	+10	6.5	6.7
/162	664	28	4	-7.7	+3.0	2.0	pk7: 7
#3Scott Hairstonlast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,624 PA	4.0	2,624	106	36	242	297	444	-18	-16	6.0	6.6
/162	664	27	9	-4.5	-4.1	1.5	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.4	2,274	88	11	240	290	427	-14	+0	5.9	5.3
/162	664	26	3	-4.1	+0.0	1.7	pk7: 5
#4Chris Heiseylast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 1,758 PA	2.6	1,758	62	25	238	296	413	-18	+3	3.0	3.2
/162	664	23	9	-6.7	+1.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Leron Lee'69-'76 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,769 PA	2.7	1,769	31	19	248*	306*	408*	-19	+0	2.2	2.5
/162	664	12	7	-7.2	+0.0	0.8	pk7: 3
#6Jerald Clark'88-'95 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,728 PA	2.6	1,728	44	17	253*	299*	433*	-20	+2	1.0	1.0
/162	664	17	7	-7.8	+0.6	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Conrad Cason (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	237/285/431	194	291	1	0	28%	6%	99	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Andy Pages 2022 · A	21	42→52	59→60	45→50	47	225/317/433	209	295	27	6	32%	10%	112	+2.2	225/305/404	179	293	21	7	29%	8%	100	+1.3	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
✕Eric Arce 2012 · A	20	41	55→60	47→30	47	214/312/402	188	287	23	4	32%	10%	103	+1.5	198/287/352	154	334	18	4	42%	10%	82	-0.0	140/248/285	145	254	20	0	49%	11%	51	-0.6
✕Eric Campbell 2006 · A	20	43→48	55	50	39	227/277/418	191	292	23	12	31%	6%	93	+0.8	227/274/398	171	258	22	9	22%	5%	87	+0.4	226/287/373	148	253	18	3	18%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Francisco Alvarez 2022 · A	20	47	60	44→40	48	247/332/466	219	308	28	8	29%	9%	124	+3.1	235/312/440	205	291	28	4	29%	9%	112	+2.2	229/307/433	203	277	28	2	28%	9%	108	+1.3
✕Orelvis Martinez 2022 · A	20	40→36	58→60	47→40	42	217/283/421	203	278	26	5	32%	7%	96	+1.0	203/271/392	189	257	26	4	32%	7%	85	+0.2	194/265/382	188	239	26	3	31%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Jhonkensy Noel 2022 · A	21	48→42	54→55	46→45	36	249/288/425	176	313	24	7	28%	4%	99	+1.2	210/269/388	178	271	23	3	31%	6%	83	+0.1	200/264/382	182	250	25	1	31%	6%	78	-0.3
●Kyle Blanks 2008 · A	21	47→57	52→55	50→45	42	241/307/408	166	305	20	7	27%	6%	101	+1.4	255/330/422	167	322	20	5	26%	8%	113	+2.3	255/338/422	168	325	20	3	26%	9%	114	+1.5
●Miguel Sanó 2013 · A	20	40→50	54→70	46→45	43	211/285/395	184	296	22	5	35%	9%	91	+0.6	230/313/454	224	319	28	7	35%	10%	114	+2.4	244/332/473	229	340	30	2	35%	11%	126	+2.9
●Jo Adell 2019 · AA	20	47	52→65	54→50	37	238/286/414	176	325	19	12	32%	5%	95	+0.9	228/279/388	160	328	18	10	34%	6%	86	+0.3	228/290/425	197	264	28	9	26%	6%	101	+1.3
●Derek Norris 2010 · A	21	45→55	52→55	45→50	49	228/310/392	164	299	20	5	30%	10%	99	+1.3	209/309/374	165	282	20	9	31%	12%	95	+1.0	257/333/410	152	314	16	5	22%	9%	112	+1.6
✕Brandon Laird 2009 · A	21	44→50	52→55	48→30	42	231/274/398	167	268	20	2	23%	5%	86	+0.3	239/280/387	148	284	18	2	22%	5%	86	+0.3	241/280/385	144	283	18	1	22%	4%	83	+0.1
●Maikel Franco 2014 · AA	21	53→58	51→55	43→40	42	269/301/433	164	303	18	3	19%	4%	105	+1.7	258/296/421	163	288	18	3	17%	5%	100	+1.3	250/298/422	172	268	22	1	16%	6%	102	+1.4
✕Matt Dominguez 2009 · A	19	47→48	51→50	43→30	42	242/288/394	153	287	20	3	24%	5%	91	+0.7	228/284/366	138	274	14	2	22%	6%	83	+0.1	223/282/358	135	264	13	0	20%	6%	78	-0.2
✕Travis Denker 2006 · A	20	47→51	51→50	37→45	50	240/317/403	162	298	20	4	26%	10%	104	+1.6	232/308/369	137	278	15	4	21%	10%	93	+0.8	228/306/359	131	271	13	4	20%	10%	88	+0.3
✕Kala Ka'aihue 2007 · A	22	44→49	56→55	47→30	46	230/308/425	194	306	25	3	32%	9%	105	+1.7	212/298/373	161	305	19	3	34%	10%	91	+0.6	191/286/338	147	278	17	1	35%	10%	77	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2022 · A	21	47	51→50	48→50	42	234/305/398	164	322	19	7	32%	7%	99	+1.2	225/289/367	142	293	15	6	28%	6%	86	+0.3	218/281/355	137	281	15	6	27%	6%	76	-0.3
●Jordan Diaz 2022 · A	21	49→59	49→55	42→30	44	249/294/398	149	296	16	5	22%	6%	93	+0.8	268/308/425	157	313	19	2	20%	5%	105	+1.7	274/316/435	161	317	20	0	20%	5%	108	+1.5
✕Nick Yorke 2022 · A	20	54→57	50	47→55	48	269/332/425	156	325	17	10	22%	8%	114	+2.3	239/296/367	128	316	14	13	27%	7%	87	+0.4	256/312/370	114	340	11	18	26%	7%	91	+0.6
✕Carter Kieboom 2018 · A	20	46→55	48→50	43→45	42	231/293/376	145	306	15	5	29%	7%	88	+0.5	241/311/374	133	318	15	6	27%	8%	95	+0.9	239/318/366	128	315	14	5	27%	9%	93	+0.6
✕Michael Choice 2012 · A	22	45→55	53→50	44→40	42	230/296/404	174	311	22	7	32%	7%	97	+1.1	237/303/367	130	314	15	5	28%	7%	91	+0.6	233/304/351	118	304	14	3	26%	7%	86	+0.2

Conrad Cason

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps