Kai Peterson

P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 24 LHP 6'0" / 190 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECTFG #904

ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	40	50	4.53	2.23	38.9%	17.9%	—	K 29.1% · BB 21.0% · FIP 3.60
2025	22	MIX2 levels	38	50	3.04	3.44	27.6%	13.1%	—	K 20.4% · BB 14.0% · FIP 4.48
2026	23	MIX3 levels	20	26	4.85	4.72	24.8%	20.8%	—	K 22.1% · BB 18.8% · FIP 5.11
2027PROJ	24	MLBTOR	54	57	5.37	5.37	23.0%	17.8%	-0.5
2028PROJ44% MLB	25	MLBTOR	24	25	5.16	5.08	23.4%	15.8%	-0.1
2029PROJ67% MLB	26	MLBTOR	37	39	5.05	5.01	23.6%	15.3%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command30FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsBen Harris (age 24) · Dillon Larsen (age 24) · Brendan Nail (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119127vR 135

ERA5.37

FIP5.37

K%23.0%

BB%17.8%

K-BB%5.2%

Proj IP57

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4550

CMD2030

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	50	234	91	42	1	0%	1.2	29.1%	21.0%	8.1%	0.6%	4.53	3.60	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	50	234	91	42	1	0%	1.2	29.1%	21.0%	8.1%	0.6%	4.53	3.60	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	50	234	91	42	1	0%	1.2	38.9%	17.9%	20.9%	0.4%	4.53	2.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	50	221	61	29	4	0%	1.3	20.4%	14.0%	6.4%	2.4%	3.04	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	0	50	221	61	29	4	0%	1.3	20.4%	14.0%	6.4%	2.4%	3.04	4.48	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	0	50	221	61	29	4	0%	1.3	27.6%	13.1%	14.5%	1.8%	3.04	3.44	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	26	125	31	26	2	0%	1.3	22.1%	18.8%	3.3%	2.7%	4.85	5.11	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	20	0	26	125	31	26	2	0%	1.3	22.1%	18.8%	3.3%	2.7%	4.85	5.11	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	20	0	26	125	31	26	2	0%	1.3	24.8%	20.8%	4.0%	1.6%	4.85	4.72	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TOR	54	0	57	241	55	43	7	0%	1.1	23.0%	17.8%	5.2%	2.9%	5.37	5.37	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	244	57	39	7	0%	1.1	23.4%	15.8%	7.6%	2.9%	5.16	5.08	-0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	244	58	37	7	0%	1.1	23.6%	15.3%	8.4%	2.9%	5.05	5.01	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	TOR	24	0	25	106	25	17	3	0%	1.0	23.4%	15.8%	7.6%	2.9%	5.16	5.08	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	TOR	37	0	39	165	39	25	5	0%	1.1	23.6%	15.3%	8.4%	2.9%	5.05	5.01	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	0	64	270	64	42	8	0%	1.0	23.6%	15.5%	8.1%	2.9%	5.09	4.66	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	200	131	25	0%	1.1	23.6%	15.5%	8.1%	2.9%	5.09	4.66	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		98	0	126	580	141	103	10	0%	1.3	24.3%	17.8%	6.5%	1.7%	4.00	4.26	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	921	224	164	16	0%	1.3	24.3%	17.8%	6.5%	1.7%	4.00	4.26	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kai Peterson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.37	23.0%	17.8%	2.9%	—	5.04	23.5%	8.0%	116	-0.33	—	—	—
Ben Harris L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	23.8%	19.6%	3.8%	.291	4.74	21.1%	0.9%	30	-0.92	3.06	183	88
Dillon Larsen L 2022 · 5.90 FIP	24	SU	5.90	21.7%	21.6%	3.5%	.277	4.65	18.0%	-4.1%	91	-1.25	4.04	120	87
Brendan Nail L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	23	SU	4.88	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.83	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.05	3.45	165	86
Gil Luna L 2023 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	22.5%	24.5%	1.9%	.303	4.95	19.7%	-6.0%	73	-0.42	4.57	113	85
Caleb Frare L 2017 · 5.45 FIP	24	SU	5.45	22.6%	21.3%	2.9%	.307	3.14	28.0%	15.6%	80	-2.31	2.27	237	85
Renyel Pinto L 2006 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	26.7%	20.0%	2.2%	.246	4.42	21.2%	7.6%	185	-0.18	3.58	231	85
Seth Clark L 2024 · 5.66 FIP	24	SU	5.66	18.9%	16.2%	3.9%	.267	4.56	17.7%	-2.7%	32	-1.10	4.23	128	85
Christian Chamberlain L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	26.7%	17.5%	2.2%	.238	3.91	20.7%	0.5%	43	-0.38	3.91	148	84
Ty Madrigal L 2021 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	19.3%	15.7%	2.0%	.329	5.75	17.6%	2.4%	49	+1.19	4.56	107	84
Carlos Rey L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	22	SU	4.47	26.1%	22.0%	1.4%	.297	4.30	25.5%	5.4%	108	-0.17	3.90	165	83
Jimmy Burnette L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	25.2%	16.3%	2.3%	.336	3.48	19.9%	5.1%	59	-0.81	3.00	158	83
Jackson Lancaster L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	18.9%	17.6%	2.6%	.315	5.15	19.7%	6.8%	122	+0.01	4.15	142	83
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	82
Ty Damron L 2018 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	24.3%	14.0%	2.6%	.358	4.30	19.7%	10.3%	134	+0.03	3.29	346	81
Triston Polley L 2021 · 4.88 FIP	24	SU	4.88	22.3%	20.0%	2.1%	.361	4.77	18.5%	5.2%	136	-0.11	4.15	151	81
Gabriel Sequeira L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	19.3%	13.1%	2.7%	.294	3.57	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.03	2.62	160	81
Fabian Williamson L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	26	SU	5.31	17.4%	17.9%	2.6%	.289	4.16	20.0%	8.2%	77	-1.15	3.39	154	81
Kelly Secrest L 2016 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.47	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.95	3.11	151	80
Sam Selman L 2015 · 4.36 FIP	24	SU	4.36	20.9%	17.3%	1.5%	.346	3.30	26.1%	11.1%	128	-1.06	2.27	353	80
Bailey Horn L 2022 · 4.71 FIP	24	SU	4.71	24.7%	15.6%	3.1%	.320	4.35	22.0%	11.5%	163	-0.36	3.90	265	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	58	23.4%	16.3%	1.12	5.19
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Armando Almanza ('05)	1.1	54	24.4%	14.3%	1.43	4.82
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*