Kai Peterson
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 23
LHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116125vR 134
ERA5.11
FIP5.11
K%23.8%
BB%16.4%
K-BB%7.3%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 71 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 50 | 234 | 91 | 42 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 29.1% | 21.0% | 8.1% | 0.6% | 4.53 | 3.60 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 50 | 234 | 91 | 42 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 38.9% | 17.9% | 20.9% | 0.4% | 4.53 | 2.23 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 61 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.4% | 14.0% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 3.04 | 4.75 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 0 | 50 | 221 | 61 | 29 | 4 | 0% | 1.3 | 27.6% | 13.1% | 14.5% | 1.8% | 3.04 | 3.44 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 15 | 0 | 19 | 88 | 24 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 22.1% | 18.8% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 5.68 | 5.11 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 50 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 53 | 36 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 5.11 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TOR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 5.11 | 5.11 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 71 | 309 | 77 | 51 | 8 | — | — | 24.8% | 16.6% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 5.26 | 5.11 | -0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 23.8% | 16.4% | 7.3% | 2.8% | 5.11 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 51 | 0 | 54 | 227 | 55 | 33 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 14.7% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.84 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 57 | 31 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.6% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TOR | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 25 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.3% | 14.7% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.91 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TOR | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 37 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.6% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.76 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 63 | 36 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.37 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 207 | 118 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.5% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.37 | +2.4 | ||
| Career | — | 93 | 0 | 119 | 543 | 133 | 97 | 10 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.4% | 17.8% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 4.08 | 4.31 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 0 | 200 | 913 | 223 | 162 | 17 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.4% | 17.8% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 4.08 | 4.31 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kai Peterson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 2.8% | — | 4.76 | 24.4% | 10.2% | 108 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.20 | 23.7% | 14.8% | 2.2% | .272 | 3.95 | 22.2% | 8.5% | 105 | -0.25 | 3.12 | 161 | 92 |
| Seth Clark L 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.30 | 22.5% | 15.0% | 2.2% | .287 | 5.13 | 18.4% | 0.6% | 82 | +0.83 | 4.30 | 128 | 92 |
| Jeff Belge L 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.03 | 24.0% | 18.8% | 2.9% | .343 | 3.76 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 131 | -1.27 | 3.27 | 175 | 90 |
| Brendan Nail L 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.74 | 23.8% | 16.4% | 2.9% | .305 | 3.95 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 87 | -0.79 | 3.67 | 165 | 90 |
| Joe Filomeno L 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.98 | 24.0% | 16.9% | 1.4% | .244 | 5.78 | 15.2% | 2.8% | 37 | +1.80 | 2.74 | 150 | 86 |
| Ben Harris L 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 25.4% | 21.9% | 1.8% | .252 | 5.39 | 22.9% | 1.7% | 76 | +0.70 | 3.02 | 183 | 86 |
| Kade Bragg L 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.40 | 23.3% | 13.0% | 3.0% | .255 | 4.15 | 23.7% | 2.3% | 45 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 112 | 85 |
| Keylan Killgore L 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.30 | 20.7% | 12.7% | 2.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.82 | 161 | 84 |
| Nick Jones L 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.14 | 22.3% | 17.9% | 1.2% | .284 | 3.65 | 21.8% | 11.8% | 143 | -0.49 | 1.32 | 201 | 84 |
| Joseph Menefee L 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.45 | 21.9% | 18.5% | 1.6% | .361 | 4.59 | 24.8% | 6.0% | 99 | +0.14 | 3.16 | 146 | 83 |
| Kyle Dohy L 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.60 | 25.4% | 19.7% | 2.1% | .361 | 3.17 | 28.3% | 14.8% | 54 | -1.43 | 2.56 | 167 | 83 |
| Ty Madrigal L 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.64 | 19.3% | 15.7% | 2.2% | .329 | 5.86 | 17.6% | 2.4% | 49 | +1.22 | 4.64 | 107 | 83 |
| Fred Schlichtholz L 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .368 | 4.36 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 80 | -0.05 | 3.76 | 175 | 83 |
| Brendan Cellucci L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.76 | 26.3% | 18.6% | 2.8% | .398 | 4.60 | 23.4% | 6.9% | 172 | -0.16 | 3.96 | 265 | 82 |
| Mitchell Tyranski L 2028 · 5.25 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.25 | 20.4% | 13.6% | 3.9% | .269 | 4.20 | 20.7% | 6.1% | 103 | -1.05 | 3.46 | 145 | 82 |
| Julian Bosnic L 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.78 | 22.5% | 21.0% | 3.5% | .206 | 4.70 | 19.1% | -0.1% | 90 | -1.08 | 4.28 | 136 | 82 |
| Gil Luna L 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.36 | 22.5% | 24.5% | 1.9% | .303 | 5.05 | 19.7% | -6.0% | 73 | -0.31 | 4.57 | 113 | 81 |
| Trevor Seidenberger L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.63 | 18.1% | 14.3% | 2.3% | .248 | 6.50 | 13.1% | -1.8% | 52 | +1.87 | 4.63 | 101 | 81 |
| Dillon Larsen L 2027 · 6.31 FIP | 24 | SU | 6.31 | 21.7% | 21.6% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.57 | 18.0% | -4.1% | 91 | -1.74 | 4.04 | 120 | 81 |
| Chris Wright L 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.54 | 25.2% | 15.8% | 2.9% | .305 | 4.85 | 23.7% | 3.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 169 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 24.2% | 14.9% | 1.09 | 4.92 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |