Deybi Salcedo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Deybi Salcedo P FCL Red Sox

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 197 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 130122vR 114

ERA5.10

FIP5.10

K%21.3%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%7.3%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	8	0	13	48	19	2	0	0%	1.7	39.6%	4.2%	35.4%	0.0%	1.35	0.29	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	8	0	13	48	19	2	0	0%	1.7	39.6%	4.2%	35.4%	0.0%	1.35	0.29	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	8	0	13	48	19	2	0	0%	1.7	39.6%	4.2%	35.4%	0.0%	1.35	0.70	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	7	33	153	33	21	2	64%	3.0	14.7%	17.2%	-2.5%	1.9%	5.18	5.09	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	11	7	33	153	33	21	2	64%	3.0	14.7%	17.2%	-2.5%	1.9%	5.18	5.09	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	11	7	33	153	33	21	2	64%	3.0	21.6%	13.7%	7.8%	1.3%	5.18	3.80	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	14.1%	7.3%	3.0%	5.10	5.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	BOS	29	0	31	130	29	16	4	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.87	4.78	-0.1
2027	23	MLB CTX	BOS	14	0	15	63	14	8	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.87	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	15	64	14	8	2	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.87	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	185	106	26	0%	1.1	22.3%	12.4%	9.9%	2.9%	4.87	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		19	7	46	201	41	28	3	37%	2.4	20.6%	14.1%	6.6%	1.5%	4.08	3.94	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		82	30	200	868	179	122	13	37%	2.4	20.6%	14.1%	6.6%	1.5%	4.08	3.94	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Deybi Salcedo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	21.3%	14.1%	3.0%	—	4.78	22.3%	9.9%	31	-0.32	—	—	—
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	92
Joey Matulovich R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	22	SW	5.52	19.8%	14.6%	4.1%	.378	5.04	20.5%	8.9%	133	-0.48	3.22	201	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	81
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	81
Victor Simeon R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	22	SW	5.53	20.3%	15.7%	3.9%	.333	3.87	25.6%	5.4%	81	-1.66	3.22	180	80
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.15	27.7%	17.2%	182	-1.97	1.84	247	80
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	80
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	80
Eiberson Castellano R 2023 · 4.25 FIP	22	SW	4.25	18.3%	14.1%	1.7%	.359	4.06	20.9%	10.6%	251	-0.19	3.67	386	80
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	401	79
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.73	23.4%	12.7%	156	-0.82	3.22	258	78
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	78
Jarret Whorff R 2023 · 4.24 FIP	24	SW	4.24	19.5%	14.2%	1.8%	.287	4.34	19.4%	10.8%	193	+0.10	3.88	257	77
Nick Lockhart R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	22	SW	4.63	16.1%	10.6%	2.8%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.44	140	77
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	77
Jhonny Polanco R 2015 · 4.75 FIP	23	SW	4.75	18.9%	14.2%	2.6%	.283	4.06	21.3%	5.7%	48	-0.69	4.06	116	77
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	76
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	76
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	76

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	21.9%	13.0%	1.14	4.96
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Mike Holtz ('06)	1.2	34	20.4%	12.0%	0.94	4.76
Tim Byrdak ('13)	1.7	42	21.4%	13.3%	1.22	4.35
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44