Nestor German

P Norfolk Tides

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 225 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032 peak 1.8 · 2028

Overview

AAAPROSPECTFG #225Pre-ArbFA 2033

Scout OFP46ETA2028FG ETA2027MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	MIX2 levels	21	12	74	1.59	1.70	31.4%	5.9%	—	K 23.6% · BB 7.0% · FIP 2.46
2025	23	MIX3 levels	26	25	124	3.93	3.27	28.0%	9.0%	—	K 22.4% · BB 9.9% · FIP 3.58
2026	24	AAABAL	24	22	117	4.08	3.34	24.0%	9.2%	—	K 20.7% · BB 8.3% · FIP 3.61
2027PROJ	25	MLBBAL	25	25	144	4.15	4.15	21.3%	8.6%	1.3
2028PROJ48% MLB	26	MLBBAL	12	12	73	4.21	4.20	21.6%	8.5%	0.7
2029PROJ66% MLB	27	MLBBAL	17	17	101	4.24	4.25	21.6%	8.5%	0.9

Next 3 projected WAR 2.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.0First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$4M2031Arb-2$6M2032Arb-3$6M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff51Control52Command50FB velo50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 13, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 75%

CompsRorik Maltrud (age 24) · Félix Peña (age 25) · Wes Parsons (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.15

FIP4.15

K%21.3%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%12.7%

Proj IP144

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5050

CTRL—50

CMD4550

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2027

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$3M	+$2M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$6M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	0.8%	1.59	2.46	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	23.6%	7.0%	16.6%	0.8%	1.59	2.46	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	12	74	287	90	17	2	57%	3.5	31.4%	5.9%	25.4%	0.7%	1.59	1.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	2.1%	3.93	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	22.4%	9.9%	12.6%	2.1%	3.93	3.58	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	25	124	510	143	46	13	96%	4.8	28.0%	9.0%	19.0%	2.5%	3.93	3.27	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	24	22	117	499	120	46	10	92%	4.9	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	2.2%	4.08	3.61	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	24	22	117	499	120	46	10	92%	4.9	20.7%	8.3%	12.4%	2.2%	4.08	3.61	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	Norfolk Tides	24	22	117	499	120	46	10	92%	4.9	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	2.0%	4.08	3.34	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	BAL	25	25	144	608	129	52	15	100%	5.8	21.3%	8.6%	12.7%	2.5%	4.15	4.15	+1.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	151	636	137	54	16	100%	6.0	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.6%	4.15	4.14	+1.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	152	643	139	55	17	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.6%	4.17	4.18	+1.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	BAL	25	25	152	643	138	55	18	100%	6.1	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	2.8%	4.23	4.27	+1.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	BAL	24	24	146	614	131	54	18	100%	6.1	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	2.9%	4.33	4.40	+0.9
2032	30	MLB MLE	BAL	23	23	137	578	121	53	18	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.1%	4.48	4.58	+0.5
2033	31	MLB MLE	BAL	21	21	128	539	111	51	18	100%	6.1	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.3%	4.66	4.78	+0.2
2034	32	MLB MLE	BAL	20	20	118	498	100	49	18	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.8%	10.2%	3.6%	4.87	5.01	-0.1
2035	33	MLB MLE	BAL	18	18	108	457	89	47	18	100%	6.0	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	3.9%	5.10	5.26	-0.4
2028	26	MLB CTX	BAL	12	12	73	308	66	26	8	100%	6.1	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.7%	4.21	4.20	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	101	426	92	36	12	100%	5.9	21.6%	8.5%	13.1%	2.8%	4.24	4.25	+0.9
2030	28	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	118	498	107	43	14	100%	5.9	21.5%	8.6%	12.9%	2.9%	4.30	4.34	+0.9
2031	29	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	120	507	108	45	15	100%	6.0	21.3%	8.8%	12.5%	3.1%	4.40	4.47	+0.7
2032	30	MLB CTX	BAL	20	20	119	502	105	46	16	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.8%	3.3%	4.56	4.66	+0.4
2033	31	MLB CTX	BAL	19	19	114	481	99	45	17	100%	6.0	20.5%	9.4%	11.1%	3.5%	4.74	4.86	+0.2
2034	32	MLB CTX	BAL	18	18	107	452	91	44	17	100%	5.9	20.1%	9.8%	10.2%	3.8%	4.96	5.10	-0.1
2035	33	MLB CTX	BAL	17	17	100	422	83	43	17	100%	5.9	19.6%	10.3%	9.3%	4.0%	5.20	5.36	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		142	142	851	3595	750	328	117	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.58	4.28	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	176	77	27	100%	6.0	20.9%	9.1%	11.7%	3.3%	4.58	4.28	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		71	59	314	1296	285	112	24	83%	4.4	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	1.8%	3.44	3.35	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	38	200	825	181	71	15	83%	4.4	22.0%	8.6%	13.4%	1.8%	3.44	3.35	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nestor German (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.15	21.3%	8.6%	2.5%	—	4.20	21.5%	13.0%	456	+0.05	—	—	—
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	85
Félix Peña R 2015 · 3.73 FIP	25	SP	3.73	21.0%	9.8%	2.1%	.296	3.83	24.0%	15.6%	263	+0.10	2.79	615	84
Wes Parsons R 2018 · 3.56 FIP	25	SP	3.56	18.4%	7.7%	1.9%	.274	4.01	18.5%	6.1%	91	+0.45	3.00	483	83
Riley Gowens R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP	4.55	22.6%	10.3%	3.7%	.279	4.37	21.3%	12.1%	173	-0.18	4.30	295	82
Brian Edgington R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	25	SP	3.99	19.5%	6.5%	3.1%	.321	5.28	19.3%	7.0%	58	+1.29	3.99	171	82
Braydon Tucker R 2024 · 3.25 FIP	25	SP-	3.25	18.3%	7.1%	1.5%	.291	4.70	15.3%	6.3%	208	+1.45	3.25	314	82
Tyler Cravy R 2015 · 3.94 FIP	26	SP-	3.94	17.0%	9.0%	2.1%	.305	4.61	18.6%	7.8%	138	+0.67	3.94	276	82
Mike Clevinger R 2016 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	22.1%	10.7%	2.6%	.290	3.19	28.1%	19.0%	482	-0.83	2.28	1,236	82
Isaac Coffey R 2024 · 3.67 FIP	24	SP	3.67	24.3%	11.4%	2.1%	.280	5.77	18.5%	6.9%	56	+2.10	3.67	287	81
Jack Wenninger R 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP-	4.33	20.9%	9.3%	3.3%	.309	4.29	21.1%	11.1%	251	-0.04	3.90	366	81
Roman Angelo R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP	3.99	22.6%	11.4%	2.5%	.291	5.72	18.6%	5.2%	169	+1.73	3.99	290	81
Tyler Stuart R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	24	SP	3.53	21.1%	7.4%	2.3%	.319	6.01	15.6%	0.6%	19	+2.48	3.53	252	81
Chris Ellis R 2018 · 3.84 FIP	25	SP-	3.84	19.3%	7.3%	2.6%	.284	5.30	19.2%	7.2%	165	+1.46	3.84	780	81
Jared Mortensen R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	27	SP-	4.42	16.9%	7.8%	3.2%	.287	4.99	20.9%	2.1%	72	+0.57	4.42	200	81
Trevor Martin R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	23	SP	4.21	20.6%	8.1%	3.3%	.296	4.16	19.9%	9.6%	121	-0.05	3.94	353	81
D.J. Brown R 2016 · 4.43 FIP	25	SP-	4.43	16.7%	8.1%	3.1%	.317	4.49	16.3%	9.3%	74	+0.06	4.02	348	81
Austin Love R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP	4.34	20.6%	10.6%	3.0%	.358	3.58	22.1%	9.7%	56	-0.76	3.58	240	80
Garrett Stallings R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	20.4%	7.9%	3.5%	.327	3.93	17.6%	10.5%	275	-0.36	3.19	627	80
Mike Wright Jr. R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP	4.07	15.7%	7.9%	2.3%	.260	4.25	17.2%	9.8%	343	+0.18	3.76	725	80
Patrick Johnson R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	27	SP-	3.82	17.3%	6.9%	2.4%	.286	4.14	15.7%	6.4%	120	+0.32	3.82	248	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.2	137	21.0%	9.0%	1.16	4.42
Elmer Knetzer ('09-'17, 6 WAR*)	6.3	158	19.4%*	9.7%*	1.10*	4.40*
Kyle Gibson ('25)	9.4	156	18.8%	8.2%	1.12	4.60
Pat Ragan ('09-'23, 14 WAR*)	8.0	179	20.5%*	8.0%*	1.16*	4.39*
Wandy Rodriguez ('15)	7.8	142	19.2%	8.0%	1.07	4.10
Tyler Anderson ('25)	6.3	126	19.5%	7.8%	1.32	4.30
Jim Bibby ('72-'84, 16 WAR*)	8.6	157	21.9%*	9.8%*	1.05*	4.32*