Alexey LumpuyOF
Myrtle Beach Pelicans
Age 22
L/L
6'0" / 180 lbs
A
BB +5%HR -4%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
wRC+†38
AVG/OBP/SLG.157 / .229 / .275
PA320
HR7
SB20
K%46
BB%6
MLB%0%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
20→20
PWR
40→40
SPD
60→60
EYE
43↘30
trajectory · 10 yrs
-0.4peak
2030
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | — | — | — |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | — | — | — |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | — | — | — |
| 2036 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $1M | $-26M | -$27M | ||
Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$27M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$27M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 98 | 86 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 2 | .151 | .240 | .209 | .449 | .058 | .255 | 38 | 4 | .207 | 17 | -9 | -0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 185 | 157 | 26 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 17 | 62 | 9 | 20 | 8 | .166 | .284 | .344 | .628 | .178 | .247 | 34 | 9 | .273 | 67 | -7 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 429 | 397 | 55 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 230 | 12 | 30 | 9 | .139 | .201 | .237 | .438 | .098 | .296 | 54 | 4 | .193 | 6 | -46 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +12 | -3.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 75 | 66 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 34 | 2 | 9 | 2 | .197 | .284 | .227 | .511 | .030 | .394 | 45 | 8 | .238 | 40 | -5 | +1 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | CHC | 245 | 222 | 37 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 112 | 6 | 11 | 3 | .167 | .239 | .275 | .513 | .108 | .302 | 46 | 6 | .235 | 38 | -17 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +7 | -1.1 |
| TOT | 22 | MLB | CHC | 320 | 288 | 50 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 146 | 8 | 20 | 5 | .174 | .249 | .264 | .513 | .090 | .329 | 46 | 7 | .235 | 38 | -22 | +2 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB 11% | CHC | 460 | 411 | 76 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 35 | 169 | 11 | 18 | 5 | .185 | .267 | .314 | .581 | .129 | .278 | 37 | 8 | .260 | 58 | -22 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +13 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB 26% | CHC | 502 | 446 | 84 | 14 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 177 | 12 | 18 | 5 | .188 | .272 | .316 | .588 | .128 | .280 | 35 | 8 | .269 | 64 | -20 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +14 | -0.8 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB 43% | CHC | 525 | 465 | 90 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 181 | 12 | 17 | 5 | .194 | .279 | .325 | .604 | .131 | .282 | 34 | 8 | .275 | 69 | -18 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB 58% | CHC | 537 | 475 | 93 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 184 | 12 | 16 | 4 | .196 | .282 | .333 | .615 | .137 | .283 | 34 | 8 | .278 | 71 | -18 | +2 | +0 | -3 | +15 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB 76% | CHC | 540 | 477 | 93 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 45 | 185 | 13 | 15 | 4 | .195 | .282 | .331 | .613 | .136 | .283 | 34 | 8 | .278 | 71 | -18 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +15 | -0.4 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB 84% | CHC | 537 | 474 | 93 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 185 | 12 | 14 | 3 | .196 | .284 | .333 | .617 | .137 | .282 | 34 | 9 | .277 | 70 | -18 | +2 | -1 | -3 | +15 | -0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | CHC | 528 | 466 | 89 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 45 | 183 | 12 | 13 | 3 | .191 | .279 | .322 | .601 | .131 | .281 | 35 | 9 | .275 | 69 | -19 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +15 | -0.7 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | CHC | 518 | 457 | 87 | 15 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 182 | 12 | 12 | 3 | .190 | .279 | .319 | .598 | .129 | .279 | 35 | 8 | .272 | 66 | -20 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +15 | -0.9 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | CHC | 505 | 446 | 83 | 14 | 4 | 11 | 43 | 179 | 11 | 10 | 2 | .186 | .274 | .309 | .583 | .123 | .278 | 35 | 9 | .268 | 63 | -21 | +1 | -3 | -3 | +14 | -1.1 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | CHC | 487 | 431 | 78 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 42 | 175 | 11 | 9 | 1 | .181 | .271 | .299 | .570 | .118 | .276 | 36 | 9 | .264 | 60 | -22 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +14 | -1.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | CHC | 457 | 405 | 73 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 168 | 10 | 8 | 1 | .180 | .269 | .296 | .565 | .116 | .274 | 37 | 9 | .258 | 56 | -23 | +1 | -4 | -3 | +13 | -1.6 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 411 | 364 | 63 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 154 | 9 | 7 | 0 | .173 | .262 | .283 | .545 | .110 | .272 | 37 | 9 | .252 | 51 | -23 | +1 | -5 | -2 | +12 | -1.7 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6964 | 6179 | 1133 | 188 | 70 | 149 | 556 | 2563 | 170 | 221 | 58 | .183 | .269 | .309 | .578 | .125 | .281 | 37 | 8 | .263 | 59 | -320 | +21 | -20 | -42 | +197 | -16.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 577 | 107 | 18 | 7 | 14 | 52 | 239 | 16 | 21 | 5 | .185 | .271 | .314 | .585 | .128 | .284 | 37 | 8 | .263 | 59 | -30 | +2 | -2 | -4 | +18 | -1.5 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 98 | 83 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 26 | 6 | 3 | 2 | .217 | .323 | .337 | .660 | .120 | .305 | 27 | 7 | .298 | 86 | -2 | -0 | — | — | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | DSL Cubs Blue | 185 | 148 | 38 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 26 | 42 | 9 | 20 | 8 | .257 | .399 | .534 | .933 | .277 | .330 | 23 | 14 | .401 | 165 | +14 | +1 | — | — | +5 | 2.0 |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | 429 | 382 | 80 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 34 | 154 | 12 | 30 | 9 | .209 | .294 | .364 | .658 | .154 | .318 | 36 | 8 | .297 | 86 | -7 | +2 | — | — | +12 | 0.8 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Alexey Lumpuy (OGILVIE) | 22 | 20 | 40 | 60 | 30 | .157/.229/.275 | .118 | .283 | 7 | 10 | 46% | 6% | 35 | -1.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Nick Schnell 2022 · A |
22 | 37→43 | 44→50 | 52→50 | 36 | .179/.248/.289 | .110 | .315 | 13 | 13 | 44% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .186/.245/.306 | .120 | .328 | 14 | 9 | 44% | 7% | 49 | -1.8 | .194/.244/.346 | .152 | .296 | 18 | 11 | 40% | 5% | 56 | -1.0 |
|
✕Brian Pointer 2014 · A |
22 | 37→41 | 42→45 | 51→50 | 39 | .184/.253/.293 | .109 | .274 | 10 | 13 | 35% | 6% | 50 | -1.8 | .204/.277/.329 | .125 | .307 | 13 | 12 | 35% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .204/.281/.340 | .136 | .306 | 15 | 12 | 36% | 9% | 69 | -0.3 |
|
✕Tyler Miller 2023 · A |
23 | 38→29 | 44→45 | 53→50 | 35 | .192/.244/.301 | .109 | .296 | 13 | 13 | 39% | 5% | 46 | -2.0 | .195/.238/.303 | .108 | .274 | 11 | 12 | 32% | 5% | 44 | -2.1 | .188/.229/.295 | .108 | .250 | 10 | 9 | 29% | 4% | 37 | -1.5 |
|
✕Izzy Wilson 2019 · A |
21 | 37→32 | 42→50 | 51→55 | 36 | .182/.237/.281 | .100 | .297 | 10 | 12 | 41% | 6% | 38 | -2.6 | .188/.254/.299 | .111 | .316 | 12 | 18 | 41% | 8% | 51 | -1.7 | .178/.249/.314 | .136 | .272 | 17 | 23 | 39% | 8% | 49 | -1.0 |
|
✕Jase Bowen 2023 · A |
22 | 39→40 | 44→45 | 54→55 | 35 | .194/.253/.305 | .111 | .299 | 13 | 14 | 38% | 6% | 52 | -1.6 | .200/.252/.326 | .126 | .285 | 15 | 18 | 34% | 5% | 57 | -1.2 | .198/.249/.325 | .127 | .276 | 15 | 22 | 33% | 5% | 52 | -1.2 |
|
✕Estee Harris 2008 · A |
23 | 35→30 | 41→50 | 49→50 | 36 | .178/.225/.274 | .096 | .274 | 9 | 13 | 38% | 6% | 31 | -3.0 | .215/.262/.336 | .121 | .370 | 12 | 12 | 42% | 5% | 63 | -0.8 | .212/.254/.349 | .137 | .373 | 14 | 14 | 45% | 4% | 59 | -0.4 |
|
✕Max White 2016 · A |
22 | 43 | 41→45 | 55→60 | 35 | .194/.255/.299 | .105 | .338 | 8 | 22 | 42% | 7% | 50 | -1.7 | .199/.260/.310 | .111 | .327 | 9 | 25 | 39% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .187/.248/.292 | .104 | .301 | 9 | 28 | 38% | 7% | 43 | -1.6 |
|
✕Jeremy Moore 2009 · A |
22 | 37→47 | 49→50 | 55 | 33 | .194/.235/.346 | .151 | .283 | 17 | 17 | 37% | 4% | 54 | -1.4 | .225/.263/.369 | .144 | .331 | 14 | 17 | 35% | 4% | 72 | -0.2 | .237/.274/.385 | .148 | .338 | 14 | 19 | 33% | 4% | 78 | +0.2 |
|
✕Willie Joe Garry Jr. 2022 · A |
22 | 39 | 40→45 | 56→55 | 36 | .178/.248/.269 | .091 | .326 | 7 | 18 | 44% | 8% | 40 | -2.4 | .181/.250/.286 | .105 | .316 | 7 | 22 | 42% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .174/.243/.294 | .120 | .305 | 7 | 28 | 42% | 7% | 43 | -0.9 |
|
✕Gage Canning 2019 · A |
22 | 42→36 | 45→40 | 50 | 37 | .208/.258/.335 | .128 | .307 | 13 | 8 | 36% | 6% | 62 | -0.9 | .194/.243/.284 | .090 | .315 | 7 | 9 | 38% | 5% | 41 | -2.3 | .191/.241/.271 | .080 | .310 | 6 | 8 | 38% | 5% | 33 | -1.9 |
|
✕Shawn Griffin 2009 · A |
22 | 41 | 40→45 | 50 | 38 | .193/.254/.284 | .090 | .319 | 7 | 11 | 39% | 7% | 46 | -2.0 | .216/.266/.309 | .093 | .335 | 6 | 7 | 35% | 6% | 57 | -1.2 | .240/.280/.338 | .098 | .354 | 7 | 2 | 33% | 5% | 68 | -0.2 |
|
✕Jeren Kendall 2019 · A |
23 | 35→26 | 42→50 | 53→60 | 36 | .174/.231/.278 | .104 | .288 | 10 | 22 | 41% | 7% | 35 | -2.8 | .170/.241/.309 | .139 | .307 | 16 | 22 | 47% | 8% | 49 | -1.8 | .133/.218/.274 | .141 | .242 | 18 | 30 | 50% | 9% | 28 | -1.7 |
|
✕Marcus Lee Sang 2022 · A |
21 | 40→42 | 42→45 | 50 | 35 | .194/.241/.297 | .104 | .308 | 10 | 13 | 39% | 6% | 44 | -2.1 | .204/.265/.321 | .117 | .328 | 12 | 14 | 39% | 7% | 61 | -1.0 | .200/.262/.318 | .118 | .310 | 13 | 15 | 37% | 7% | 55 | -1.0 |
|
✕Sean Coyle 2014 · A |
22 | 36 | 48→50 | 54→50 | 37 | .191/.251/.335 | .144 | .272 | 16 | 14 | 35% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .202/.261/.344 | .142 | .302 | 17 | 13 | 37% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .180/.244/.304 | .124 | .276 | 15 | 12 | 39% | 7% | 45 | -1.1 |
|
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A |
21 | 38→33 | 43→45 | 51→50 | 43 | .192/.259/.300 | .108 | .274 | 11 | 13 | 33% | 8% | 53 | -1.5 | .205/.268/.319 | .114 | .301 | 12 | 12 | 34% | 7% | 62 | -0.9 | .179/.252/.298 | .118 | .265 | 14 | 11 | 36% | 8% | 49 | -1.0 |
|
✕Michael Crouse 2013 · A |
22 | 38→40 | 46→50 | 53→55 | 38 | .188/.255/.315 | .128 | .298 | 13 | 19 | 40% | 7% | 56 | -1.3 | .198/.263/.316 | .118 | .310 | 11 | 18 | 37% | 7% | 59 | -1.1 | .197/.265/.330 | .133 | .301 | 13 | 19 | 37% | 8% | 60 | -0.5 |
|
●Nick Pratto 2021 · A |
22 | 37→43 | 43→55 | 49→50 | 33 | .182/.230/.286 | .104 | .302 | 11 | 13 | 42% | 6% | 37 | -2.7 | .201/.287/.393 | .192 | .294 | 24 | 9 | 38% | 9% | 90 | +1.0 | .196/.288/.385 | .190 | .281 | 24 | 7 | 37% | 10% | 87 | +0.7 |
|
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2019 · A |
23 | 43 | 41→45 | 59→60 | 37 | .198/.262/.298 | .100 | .325 | 8 | 30 | 39% | 7% | 53 | -1.5 | .187/.249/.287 | .100 | .309 | 10 | 26 | 40% | 7% | 45 | -2.1 | .220/.298/.337 | .116 | .314 | 13 | 41 | 32% | 9% | 74 | -0.0 |
|
✕Yeicok Calderon 2014 · A |
22 | 35 | 46→45 | 45 | 33 | .180/.227/.303 | .123 | .290 | 14 | 5 | 42% | 6% | 40 | -2.4 | .206/.250/.323 | .117 | .324 | 12 | 6 | 38% | 5% | 54 | -1.4 | .210/.245/.331 | .121 | .324 | 12 | 5 | 38% | 4% | 52 | -0.6 |
|
✕Justin Higley 2016 · A |
23 | 36→40 | 42→45 | 53→55 | 37 | .178/.235/.280 | .102 | .290 | 10 | 14 | 41% | 7% | 37 | -2.6 | .190/.242/.287 | .097 | .329 | 7 | 14 | 41% | 6% | 42 | -2.3 | .184/.234/.279 | .095 | .329 | 5 | 13 | 43% | 6% | 33 | -2.4 |