Austin Hendrick
RF Chattanooga Lookouts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AACIN | 474 | .188/.245/.288 | 11 | 14 | 9 | — | .148/.194/.218 |
| 2025 | 24 | AACIN | 357 | .246/.328/.422 | 14 | 6 | 63 | — | .203/.262/.335 |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA/AACIN | 444 | .212/.283/.367 | 17 | 6 | 39 | — | .170/.224/.278 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBCIN | 3 | .190/.242/.311 | 0 | 0 | 51 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBCIN | 60 | .191/.245/.314 | 2 | 1 | 53 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 50
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 266 | 209 | 44 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 51 | 100 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 211 | 380 | 388 | 767 | 177 | 363 | 38 | 19 | 354 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 299 | 261 | 58 | 17 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 107 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 222 | 314 | 448 | 762 | 226 | 308 | 36 | 10 | 335 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 145 | 127 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 58 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 205 | 299 | 402 | 700 | 197 | 302 | 40 | 10 | 312 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 516 | 465 | 95 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 185 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 204 | 275 | 335 | 610 | 131 | 298 | 36 | 7 | 274 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 474 | 437 | 82 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 173 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 188 | 245 | 288 | 533 | 101 | 277 | 36 | 5 | 242 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 357 | 313 | 77 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 116 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 246 | 328 | 422 | 749 | 176 | 333 | 32 | 9 | 330 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 214 | 189 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 60 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 180 | 265 | 302 | 567 | 122 | 220 | 28 | 8 | 258 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 230 | 212 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 10 | 16 | 68 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 241 | 300 | 425 | 725 | 184 | 306 | 30 | 7 | 322 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 266 | 224 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 131 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 143 | 278 | 259 | 537 | 116 | 309 | 49 | 14 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 299 | 269 | 42 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 21 | 130 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 156 | 233 | 305 | 538 | 149 | 241 | 43 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 145 | 131 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 77 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 137 | 215 | 267 | 482 | 130 | 254 | 53 | 7 | 217 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 516 | 476 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 241 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 149 | 206 | 239 | 445 | 90 | 257 | 47 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 474 | 445 | 66 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 210 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 148 | 194 | 218 | 412 | 70 | 246 | 44 | 4 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 357 | 325 | 66 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 140 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 203 | 262 | 335 | 597 | 132 | 296 | 39 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 214 | 195 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 72 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 154 | 218 | 241 | 459 | 87 | 205 | 34 | 5 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 230 | 217 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 83 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 184 | 230 | 313 | 544 | 129 | 264 | 36 | 5 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 266 | 224 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 131 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 143 | 278 | 259 | 537 | 116 | 307 | 49 | 14 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Daytona Tortugas | — | 266 | 209 | 44 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 51 | 100 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 211 | 380 | 388 | 767 | 177 | 363 | 38 | 19 | 354 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 400 | 61 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 207 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 152 | 230 | 297 | 527 | 145 | 253 | 47 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 444 | 388 | 84 | 21 | 0 | 21 | 43 | 165 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 216 | 309 | 433 | 742 | 216 | 306 | 37 | 10 | 327 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 516 | 476 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 241 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 149 | 206 | 239 | 445 | 90 | 264 | 47 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | Dayton Dragons | — | 516 | 465 | 95 | 17 | 1 | 14 | 38 | 185 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 204 | 275 | 335 | 610 | 131 | 298 | 36 | 7 | 274 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 474 | 445 | 66 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 210 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 148 | 194 | 218 | 412 | 70 | 252 | 44 | 4 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 474 | 437 | 82 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 25 | 173 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 188 | 245 | 288 | 533 | 101 | 277 | 36 | 5 | 242 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 357 | 325 | 66 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 140 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 203 | 262 | 335 | 597 | 132 | 306 | 39 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 357 | 313 | 77 | 13 | 0 | 14 | 32 | 116 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 246 | 328 | 422 | 749 | 176 | 333 | 32 | 9 | 330 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 412 | 71 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 155 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 172 | 227 | 282 | 508 | 109 | 240 | 35 | 5 | 225 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 444 | 401 | 85 | 11 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 128 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 212 | 283 | 367 | 650 | 155 | 265 | 29 | 7 | 291 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 266 | 222 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 36 | 131 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 144 | 278 | 261 | 539 | 117 | 309 | 49 | 14 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 401 | 61 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 31 | 207 | 9 | 16 | 5 | 152 | 230 | 297 | 526 | 145 | 245 | 47 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 516 | 477 | 71 | 11 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 241 | 7 | 19 | 5 | 149 | 206 | 239 | 445 | 90 | 257 | 47 | 5 | 200 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 474 | 446 | 66 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 210 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 148 | 194 | 217 | 411 | 70 | 246 | 44 | 4 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 357 | 328 | 66 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 140 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 201 | 262 | 332 | 594 | 131 | 296 | 39 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 412 | 71 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 155 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 172 | 227 | 282 | 508 | 109 | 236 | 35 | 5 | 225 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 474 | 446 | 66 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 17 | 210 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 148 | 194 | 217 | 411 | 70 | 246 | 44 | 4 | 182 | 9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 357 | 328 | 66 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 20 | 140 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 201 | 262 | 332 | 594 | 131 | 296 | 39 | 6 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 444 | 412 | 71 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 22 | 155 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 172 | 227 | 282 | 508 | 109 | 236 | 35 | 5 | 225 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | CIN | 2% | 380 | 353 | 66 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 19 | 136 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 187 | 239 | 302 | 542 | 115 | 267 | 36 | 5 | 244 | 51 | -22 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | CIN | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 190 | 242 | 311 | 553 | 122 | 269 | 33 | 0 | 248 | 51 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | CIN | 27% | 225 | 208 | 39 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 79 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 242 | 305 | 547 | 116 | 268 | 35 | 5 | 246 | 53 | -13 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +5 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | CIN | 27% | 60 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 191 | 245 | 314 | 558 | 122 | 269 | 35 | 5 | 251 | 53 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 60 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 250 | 339 | 589 | 143 | 273 | 35 | 5 | 251 | 38 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 120 | 22 | 0 | 22 | 32 | 228 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 198 | 251 | 343 | 593 | 145 | 275 | 35 | 5 | 251 | 38 | -37 | +2 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -2.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2881 | 2634 | 433 | 71 | 1 | 71 | 173 | 1219 | 48 | 70 | 27 | 164 | 229 | 273 | 502 | 109 | 265 | 42 | 6 | 224 | 38 | -22 | +0 | +0 | -4 | +8 | -1.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 594 | 97 | 16 | 0 | 16 | 39 | 275 | 11 | 16 | 6 | 163 | 228 | 271 | 499 | 108 | 263 | 42 | 6 | 224 | 38 | -37 | +0 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -3.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 230 PAwOBA .313 → .243 (−70)K% 29.6% → 36.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.96% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.72% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.87% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.957 | ×0.998 | 19.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.957 | ×0.998 | 5.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.957 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.54% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .313 → .243; ISO .184 → .140; BABIP .306 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAALouisville Bats · 214 PAwOBA .249 → .206 (−42)K% 28.0% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.04% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.34% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.995 | ×1.033 | 18.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | ×1.033 | 1.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.995 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.43% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 3.92% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .249 → .206; ISO .122 → .088; BABIP .220 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 357 PAwOBA .327 → .261 (−65)K% 32.5% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.49% | ÷1.010 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.26% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.96% | ÷1.087 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.68% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.38% | ÷0.963 | ×0.920 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 23.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.60% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×0.960 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.11% | ÷1.021 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.63% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 93, 2B 118, 3B 100, K 102, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .327 → .261; ISO .176 → .136; BABIP .333 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 474 PAwOBA .236 → .182 (−54)K% 36.5% → 44.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.50% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 44.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.06% | ÷0.970 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 1.46% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.73% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 21.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.236 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 2.99% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.17% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 3.15% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 147, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .236 → .182; ISO .101 → .068; BABIP .277 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 516 PAwOBA .270 → .200 (−70)K% 35.9% → 46.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.85% | ÷0.975 | ×1.270 | — | — | 46.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.36% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.36% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.08% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.50% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 20.32% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.07% | ÷1.027 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 4.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.916 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 0.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.00% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 4.26% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .270 → .200; ISO .131 → .094; BABIP .298 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 299 PAwOBA .328 → .241 (−87)K% 35.8% → 43.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 35.79% | ÷1.047 | ×1.270 | — | — | 43.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.36% | ÷0.958 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 7.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.01% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.53% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 15.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.04% | ÷1.217 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 7.17% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.09% | ÷1.058 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 7.06% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .328 → .241; ISO .226 → .155; BABIP .308 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 145 PAwOBA .306 → .217 (−88)K% 40.0% → 53.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 40.00% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 53.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.66% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.07% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.64% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 18.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.80% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.14% | ÷0.883 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 9.33% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 103, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .306 → .217; ISO .197 → .142; BABIP .302 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ADaytona Tortugas · 266 PAwOBA .346 → .251 (−94)K% 37.6% → 49.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 37.59% | ÷1.038 | ×1.360 | — | — | 49.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 19.17% | ÷1.009 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 13.50% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.26% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.27% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 17.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.68% | ÷1.003 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 11.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.944 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.42% | ÷0.969 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 5.46% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 101, 2B 101, 3B 89, K 108, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .346 → .251; ISO .177 → .127; BABIP .363 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).