Tyler Miller
3B Jersey Shore BlueClaws| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA/A+BOS | 366 | .246/.305/.366 | 5 | 2 | 43 | — | .196/.241/.284 |
| 2025 | 25 | AABOS | 311 | .201/.269/.355 | 8 | 2 | 34 | — | .167/.216/.268 |
| 2026 | 26 | A+PHI | 86 | .151/.267/.205 | 1 | 2 | -6 | — | .115/.198/.167 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBPHI | 200 | .180/.231/.272 | 3 | 2 | 40 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 28 | MLBPHI | 33 | .182/.234/.277 | 1 | 0 | 42 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 43 | 39 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 359 | 419 | 615 | 1.034 | 256 | 444 | 23 | 9 | 448 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK | FCL Red Sox | — | 72 | 62 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 306 | 403 | 468 | 871 | 161 | 400 | 22 | 10 | 390 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Salem Red Sox | — | 480 | 430 | 94 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 130 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 219 | 290 | 337 | 627 | 119 | 276 | 27 | 8 | 281 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 371 | 339 | 89 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 90 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 263 | 319 | 422 | 741 | 159 | 328 | 24 | 7 | 326 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 226 | 202 | 46 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 38 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 228 | 294 | 312 | 606 | 84 | 268 | 17 | 7 | 272 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Greenville Drive | — | 140 | 131 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 321 | 450 | 772 | 176 | 323 | 20 | 6 | 341 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 311 | 279 | 56 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 75 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 269 | 355 | 624 | 154 | 239 | 24 | 8 | 274 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 86 | 73 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 151 | 267 | 205 | 473 | 55 | 222 | 31 | 10 | 232 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 43 | 40 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 300 | 349 | 525 | 874 | 225 | 406 | 33 | 7 | 353 | 125 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | FCL Red Sox | — | 72 | 65 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 215 | 292 | 338 | 630 | 123 | 308 | 32 | 6 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 480 | 441 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 190 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 159 | 216 | 247 | 463 | 88 | 236 | 40 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 371 | 350 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 120 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 194 | 232 | 317 | 549 | 123 | 258 | 32 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 226 | 207 | 40 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 45 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 193 | 244 | 256 | 500 | 63 | 229 | 20 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 140 | 134 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 201 | 236 | 328 | 564 | 127 | 261 | 27 | 4 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 311 | 287 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 216 | 268 | 485 | 101 | 220 | 30 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 86 | 78 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 115 | 198 | 167 | 364 | 51 | 181 | 41 | 6 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 115 | 105 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 248 | 313 | 390 | 704 | 143 | 364 | 32 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 115 | 101 | 33 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 327 | 409 | 525 | 933 | 198 | 417 | 23 | 10 | 412 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 480 | 441 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 190 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 159 | 216 | 247 | 463 | 88 | 243 | 40 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | Salem Red Sox | — | 480 | 430 | 94 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 37 | 130 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 219 | 290 | 337 | 627 | 119 | 276 | 27 | 8 | 281 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 371 | 350 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 120 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 194 | 232 | 317 | 549 | 123 | 265 | 32 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | Greenville Drive | — | 371 | 339 | 89 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 90 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 263 | 319 | 422 | 741 | 159 | 328 | 24 | 7 | 326 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 366 | 341 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 199 | 244 | 287 | 531 | 88 | 247 | 23 | 5 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 366 | 333 | 82 | 23 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 66 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 246 | 305 | 366 | 671 | 120 | 288 | 18 | 7 | 298 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 311 | 287 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 167 | 216 | 268 | 485 | 101 | 223 | 30 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 311 | 279 | 56 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 75 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 269 | 355 | 624 | 154 | 239 | 24 | 8 | 274 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 86 | 78 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 115 | 198 | 167 | 364 | 51 | 190 | 41 | 6 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ RAW | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 86 | 73 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 151 | 267 | 205 | 473 | 55 | 222 | 31 | 10 | 232 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 115 | 104 | 26 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 250 | 313 | 394 | 707 | 144 | 345 | 32 | 6 | 297 | 87 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Salem Red Sox | — | 480 | 445 | 70 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 190 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 157 | 216 | 245 | 461 | 88 | 236 | 40 | 5 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greenville Drive | — | 371 | 351 | 68 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 120 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 194 | 232 | 316 | 548 | 123 | 258 | 32 | 4 | 236 | 46 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 366 | 343 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 198 | 244 | 286 | 529 | 87 | 241 | 23 | 5 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 311 | 290 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 166 | 216 | 266 | 482 | 100 | 220 | 30 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 86 | 78 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 115 | 198 | 167 | 364 | 51 | 181 | 41 | 6 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 366 | 343 | 68 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 83 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 198 | 244 | 286 | 529 | 87 | 241 | 23 | 5 | 231 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Portland Sea Dogs | — | 311 | 290 | 48 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 94 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 166 | 216 | 266 | 482 | 100 | 220 | 30 | 5 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 86 | 78 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 115 | 198 | 167 | 364 | 51 | 181 | 41 | 6 | 160 | -6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | PHI | 0% | 200 | 186 | 33 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 68 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 180 | 231 | 272 | 503 | 92 | 262 | 34 | 5 | 228 | 40 | -14 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | PHI | 26% | 128 | 119 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 43 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 233 | 274 | 507 | 93 | 262 | 34 | 5 | 230 | 42 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +0 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | PHI | 26% | 33 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 234 | 277 | 511 | 95 | 262 | 33 | 6 | 231 | 42 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 33 | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 194 | 242 | 323 | 565 | 129 | 263 | 33 | 6 | 231 | 38 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 611 | 119 | 20 | 0 | 20 | 39 | 217 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 195 | 243 | 326 | 569 | 131 | 265 | 33 | 6 | 231 | 38 | -45 | +0 | -4 | +2 | +14 | -3.3 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1941 | 1800 | 325 | 59 | 10 | 33 | 96 | 631 | 22 | 52 | 12 | 181 | 231 | 279 | 510 | 99 | 252 | 33 | 5 | 225 | 38 | -15 | +0 | -1 | +1 | +5 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 603 | 109 | 20 | 3 | 11 | 32 | 211 | 7 | 17 | 4 | 181 | 231 | 279 | 509 | 98 | 253 | 32 | 5 | 225 | 38 | -46 | +1 | -2 | +2 | +14 | -3.1 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 86 PAwOBA .227 → .160 (−67)K% 31.4% → 41.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.40% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 41.13% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 6.02% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.49% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.992 | ×0.958 | 16.18% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.992 | ×0.958 | 1.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.992 | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 1.83% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .227 → .160; ISO .055 → .042; BABIP .222 → .181. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 311 PAwOBA .271 → .218 (−53)K% 24.1% → 30.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.12% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.72% | ÷1.055 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.64% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 0.54% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.18% | ÷0.962 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 16.20% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.39% | ÷1.109 | ×0.860 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 4.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷1.141 | ×0.950 | ×1.005 | ×0.988 | 1.62% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.92% | ÷1.119 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 2.70% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 92, 2B 122, 3B 128, K 96, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .271 → .218; ISO .154 → .111; BABIP .239 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 226 PAwOBA .271 → .223 (−48)K% 16.8% → 19.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.81% | ÷1.033 | ×1.220 | — | — | 19.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.08% | ÷1.025 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 4.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.90% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.957 | ×0.998 | 17.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.54% | ÷1.165 | ×0.860 | ×0.957 | ×0.998 | 6.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.957 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.61% | ÷1.018 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 0.47% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 101, 2B 133, 3B 130, K 107, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.957.
Result: wOBA .271 → .223; ISO .084 → .062; BABIP .268 → .229. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greenville Drive · 140 PAwOBA .331 → .245 (−86)K% 20.0% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.960 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.43% | ÷0.924 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.978 | 4.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.36% | ÷1.013 | ×0.870 | ×1.002 | ×0.978 | 17.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.74% | ÷1.037 | ×0.780 | ×1.002 | ×0.978 | 6.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.97% | ÷0.927 | ×0.850 | ×1.002 | ×0.978 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.88% | ÷1.043 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.978 | 3.21% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 109, 1B 103, 2B 107, 3B 85, K 92, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.
Result: wOBA .331 → .245; ISO .176 → .131; BABIP .323 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greenville Drive · 371 PAwOBA .319 → .236 (−84)K% 24.3% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.26% | ÷0.981 | ×1.310 | — | — | 32.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.47% | ÷1.028 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 3.73% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.62% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.49% | ÷1.053 | ×0.870 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 18.24% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.43% | ÷1.033 | ×0.780 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 6.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.20% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.993 | ×0.988 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.61% | ÷0.931 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 3.38% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 111, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 96, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.993.
Result: wOBA .319 → .236; ISO .159 → .125; BABIP .328 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASalem Red Sox · 480 PAwOBA .277 → .207 (−71)K% 27.1% → 39.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.08% | ÷0.930 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.71% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 5.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.25% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.33% | ÷1.026 | ×0.920 | ×0.975 | ×0.990 | 20.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.950 | ×0.830 | ×0.975 | ×0.990 | 2.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.33% | ÷1.106 | ×0.910 | ×0.975 | ×0.990 | 0.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.33% | ÷0.873 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.93% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 121, K 86, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.975.
Result: wOBA .277 → .207; ISO .119 → .091; BABIP .276 → .236. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Red Sox · 72 PAwOBA .380 → .263 (−117)K% 22.2% → 32.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 32.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.72% | ÷0.997 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.975 | 5.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.17% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 2.92% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.09% | ÷0.980 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.975 | 21.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.87% | ÷1.029 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 7.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.951 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.975 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷0.951 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.975 | 1.74% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 90, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 19.5 → −2.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .380 → .263; ISO .161 → .109; BABIP .400 → .308. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ASalem Red Sox · 43 PAwOBA .436 → .353 (−83)K% 23.3% → 32.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.26% | ÷0.974 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.30% | ÷1.049 | ×0.690 | — | — | 6.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.03% | ÷0.981 | ×0.920 | — | — | 29.12% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.90% | ÷1.030 | ×0.830 | — | — | 5.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.45% | ÷0.944 | ×0.910 | — | — | 3.32% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.90% | ÷0.858 | ×0.800 | — | — | 6.43% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 96, 2B 106, 3B 89, K 95, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .436 → .353; ISO .256 → .213; BABIP .444 → .406. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).