Matthew Ferrara — OGILVIE

Matthew FerraraSS Clearwater Threshers

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 183 lbs A HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION318 act + 212 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .262 / .295

PA212

HR3

SB6

K%31

BB%7

BABIP260

ISO111

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE52

scouting grade only

SPEED70

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$7M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2036	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$15M		$35M	+$29M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	29	5	1	0	109	234	182	416	73	200	45	6	183	-2	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	54	7	1	0	1	5	23	5	1	0	130	266	204	469	74	200	36	8	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	A	PHI	—	318	277	41	11	4	4	24	114	11	14	1	148	244	260	504	112	226	36	8	230	34	-24	+2	+0	+3	+9	-0.9
YTD	19	A	PHI	—	318	269	53	14	6	5	32	80	11	14	1	197	308	349	657	152	254	25	10	295	84	-6	+2	+0	+3	+9	0.9
ROS	19	A	PHI	0%	212	190	35	8	2	3	15	65	5	6	1	184	262	295	557	111	260	31	7	260	57	-10	+1	+0	+2	+6	-0.1
ROS	19	MLB	PHI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		262	—	—	243	44	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	A	PHI	—	318	278	41	11	4	4	24	114	11	14	1	147	244	259	503	112	224	36	8	230	34	-24	+2	+0	+3	+9	-0.9
TOT	19	A	PHI	—	530	467	76	19	6	7	39	179	16	20	2	163	251	274	525	111	240	34	7	242	43	-34	+3	+0	+6	+15	-1.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	PHI	25%	372	332	65	14	3	7	28	109	9	8	1	196	276	319	596	123	266	29	8	273	67	-14	+1	+0	+4	+11	0.2
2028	21	MLB	PHI	38%	466	416	84	18	4	10	36	132	11	10	1	202	283	337	619	135	269	28	8	281	73	-14	+2	+0	+5	+13	0.6
2029	22	MLB	PHI	45%	522	464	96	20	4	12	41	145	12	11	2	207	288	345	633	138	271	28	8	287	78	-13	+1	+0	+6	+15	0.9
2030	23	MLB	PHI	49%	555	493	104	22	5	13	44	152	13	12	2	211	293	355	648	144	273	27	8	291	81	-12	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.1
2031	24	MLB	PHI	50%	574	509	109	23	5	14	46	156	14	12	2	214	297	361	659	147	273	27	8	293	82	-12	+2	+0	+6	+16	1.3
2032	25	MLB	PHI	51%	584	518	110	23	5	14	47	159	14	12	2	212	295	357	652	145	273	27	8	294	83	-11	+2	+0	+6	+17	1.3
2033	26	MLB	PHI	51%	587	520	110	23	5	14	48	159	14	12	2	212	296	356	651	144	273	27	8	294	83	-11	+2	+0	+6	+17	1.4
2034	27	MLB	PHI	50%	584	517	109	23	5	14	48	159	14	12	2	211	295	356	651	145	273	27	8	294	83	-11	+2	+0	+6	+17	1.4
2035	28	MLB	PHI	50%	577	510	108	23	5	14	48	158	14	11	2	212	297	359	656	147	273	27	8	293	83	-11	+1	-1	+6	+16	1.2
2036	29	MLB	PHI	49%	566	501	105	22	5	13	47	156	13	10	2	210	294	351	645	142	272	28	8	292	81	-12	+1	-1	+6	+16	1.0
2027	20	MLB	PHI	25%	93	84	17	4	1	2	7	27	2	2	0	202	280	345	625	143	268	29	8	256	54	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
2028	21	MLB	PHI	38%	178	158	33	7	2	4	14	50	4	4	1	209	290	354	644	146	271	28	8	265	61	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2029	22	MLB	PHI	45%	237	210	43	9	2	5	19	66	6	5	1	205	289	338	627	133	273	28	8	271	66	-9	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2030	23	MLB	PHI	49%	273	243	52	11	2	7	22	75	6	6	1	214	295	362	657	148	275	27	8	275	69	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2031	24	MLB	PHI	50%	289	257	55	12	2	7	23	79	7	6	1	214	296	358	654	144	275	27	8	277	70	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2032	25	MLB	PHI	51%	297	264	56	12	2	7	24	81	7	6	1	212	295	352	647	140	275	27	8	278	71	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2033	26	MLB	PHI	51%	301	267	58	12	3	8	24	82	7	6	1	217	299	375	673	157	275	27	8	279	72	-10	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2034	27	MLB	PHI	50%	295	262	55	12	2	7	24	80	7	6	1	210	294	351	645	141	275	27	8	279	72	-9	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2035	28	MLB	PHI	50%	289	256	53	11	2	7	24	79	7	6	1	207	293	348	640	141	275	27	8	278	71	-9	+1	-0	+3	+8	0.2
2036	29	MLB	PHI	49%	276	245	52	11	2	7	23	76	6	5	1	212	296	359	655	147	274	28	8	276	70	-9	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2528	2247	474	101	20	61	204	695	59	52	9	211	294	355	649	144	275	27	8	275	69	-89	+7	-1	+27	+72	1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	122	26	5	16	52	179	15	13	2	211	293	356	649	145	275	28	8	275	69	-23	+2	-0	+7	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	5663	5025	1041	220	48	129	452	1579	138	117	19	207	290	347	638	140	273	28	8	288	78	-139	+16	-2	+61	+160	9.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	120	25	6	15	52	181	16	13	2	208	291	350	642	142	273	28	8	288	78	-16	+2	-0	+7	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	54	7	1	0	1	5	23	5	1	0	130	266	204	469	74	200	36	8	235	38	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,680	62	55	211	290	353	+29	+0	5.4	5.0
	/162	664	15	14	211	290	353	+7.1	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Ferrara (OGILVIE)	19	45	40	70	52	163/251/274	111	240	7	20	34%	7%	43	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Jose Escobar 2023 · A	18	45→47	44→45	58→45	40	222/270/345	124	286	10	15	26%	5%	69	-0.4	223/290/328	105	294	9	12	26%	6%	73	-0.1	233/300/341	108	308	10	8	26%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→49	37→45	60→50	41	210/271/293	83	300	4	18	30%	6%	56	-1.3	213/257/291	78	286	5	11	26%	4%	49	-1.8	254/306/422	168	324	18	9	26%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A	19	50→35	40→45	55	45	230/305/328	98	330	7	18	30%	8%	80	+0.4	188/317/307	119	267	12	20	31%	11%	83	+0.6	183/337/342	159	234	19	21	28%	12%	99	+0.8
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Jay Allen II 2022 · A	19	49→40	44→40	58→55	44	236/310/360	123	310	12	21	26%	7%	90	+1.0	189/288/274	85	286	6	30	33%	9%	60	-1.0	192/275/286	94	267	10	24	30%	7%	55	-1.0
✕Yu Chang 2015 · A	19	48→46	45→50	53→45	44	237/291/367	130	295	12	8	24%	6%	83	+0.6	199/251/326	127	280	13	7	32%	5%	56	-1.3	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Addison Russell 2013 · A	19	54→52	46→55	59→50	43	256/311/399	142	346	12	16	28%	7%	99	+1.7	237/300/392	155	311	16	12	27%	7%	94	+1.3	237/308/399	162	294	18	5	25%	8%	94	+1.1
✕Harry Ford 2022 · A	19	45→47	47→45	52→55	43	223/287/366	143	309	14	9	32%	8%	82	+0.5	211/317/346	135	289	14	16	29%	11%	91	+1.1	204/318/335	131	272	14	21	28%	12%	85	+0.6
✕Dorssys Paulino 2013 · A	18	49→50	46→45	56→45	41	239/280/379	140	303	12	11	25%	5%	81	+0.4	214/258/310	96	285	6	8	26%	5%	54	-1.4	227/290/337	110	307	12	5	28%	8%	72	-0.1
✕Leo Balcazar 2023 · A	19	44→49	44→40	55→45	39	211/276/328	117	312	11	15	34%	7%	67	-0.5	218/270/304	86	313	7	10	31%	6%	58	-1.2	218/268/302	84	281	9	6	25%	5%	53	-1.1
✕Adan Velazquez 2010 · A	20	44→52	43→45	54→50	43	215/277/331	116	278	9	11	25%	6%	69	-0.4	210/261/303	93	295	7	10	30%	5%	54	-1.4	248/287/342	94	301	8	6	20%	4%	71	-0.2
✕Evan Van Hoosier 2015 · A	21	48→49	43→50	56→50	45	232/286/358	126	292	9	10	23%	6%	79	+0.3	228/273/336	108	306	6	9	26%	5%	66	-0.6	227/270/341	114	317	5	10	29%	4%	64	-0.3
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→48	47→55	59→55	38	216/258/360	144	272	14	15	26%	4%	68	-0.5	239/275/399	160	304	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→53	39→40	54→50	56	239/327/329	91	293	6	14	19%	11%	89	+1.0	243/317/334	91	314	8	14	23%	8%	86	+0.8	243/318/331	88	313	8	14	23%	8%	83	+0.4
✕Jorge Bishop 2010 · A	19	47	44→45	53→55	44	235/276/350	115	275	13	17	20%	5%	72	-0.2	201/245/299	98	246	9	14	22%	5%	46	-2.0	187/221/300	113	230	9	16	23%	3%	32	-1.0
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2019 · A	19	46→55	40→45	53→50	44	216/279/314	98	304	7	14	30%	7%	64	-0.8	199/257/288	89	280	6	10	30%	6%	48	-1.9	235/295/324	88	326	9	12	29%	7%	70	-0.3
✕Alen Hanson 2012 · A	19	46→51	39→50	58→60	44	218/271/315	96	273	4	19	21%	6%	61	-1.0	232/280/372	140	293	11	20	24%	6%	79	+0.3	252/286/391	139	300	12	30	20%	4%	83	+0.4
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	193/266/287	94	270	9	17	30%	8%	53	-1.5	217/281/315	98	303	7	21	28%	8%	66	-0.6	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	49	39→45	60→65	52	227/313/330	103	311	4	16	26%	10%	83	+0.6	207/274/300	93	331	6	26	36%	7%	59	-1.1	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1