Matthew Ferrara

SS Clearwater Threshers

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 183 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1706ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	APHI	64	.130/.266/.204	1	1	7	—	.109/.234/.182
2026	19	APHI	486	.243/.348/.370	6	36	61	—	.200/.285/.298
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBPHI	568	.189/.267/.284	7	14	57	-0.2
2028PROJ25% MLB	21	MLBPHI	112	.197/.275/.307	2	3	65	-0.1
2029PROJ38% MLB	22	MLBPHI	191	.202/.281/.322	4	5	70	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed98

Max EV86

K%59

Whiff%40

BB%38

Z-Con%36

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 4.5, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 88%

CompsChe-Hsuan Lin (age 20) · Johan Mieses (age 20) · Jared Serna (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.187 / .264 / .281

PA210

HR3

SB5

K%25

BB%8

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	54	7	1	0	1	5	23	5	1	0	130	266	204	469	74	200	36	8	235	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	486	411	100	22	6	6	53	108	13	36	5	243	348	370	718	127	309	22	11	322	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	29	5	1	0	109	234	182	416	73	185	45	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	486	426	85	17	5	5	38	147	13	36	5	200	285	298	583	99	275	30	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	29	5	1	0	109	234	182	416	73	200	45	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	54	7	1	0	1	5	23	5	1	0	130	266	204	469	74	200	36	8	235	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	486	426	85	17	5	5	38	147	13	36	5	200	285	298	583	99	285	30	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	486	411	100	22	6	6	53	108	13	36	5	243	348	370	718	127	309	22	11	322	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	29	5	1	0	109	234	182	416	73	185	45	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	486	432	85	17	5	5	38	147	13	36	5	197	285	294	579	97	275	30	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	29	5	1	0	109	234	182	416	73	185	45	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	486	432	85	17	5	5	38	147	13	36	5	197	285	294	579	97	275	30	8	259	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	568	509	95	19	3	7	43	140	11	14	3	189	267	284	550	95	242	25	8	253	57	-29	+2	+0	+6	+12	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PHI	25%	451	404	79	16	3	7	35	109	9	12	2	196	275	303	577	107	246	24	8	264	65	-19	+2	+0	+5	+10	-0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	PHI	38%	500	447	90	18	3	9	40	118	9	14	3	201	280	317	597	116	249	24	8	272	70	-18	+2	+0	+5	+11	-0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	PHI	45%	556	496	101	20	3	11	45	130	10	16	3	205	284	327	611	122	252	23	8	277	74	-17	+2	+0	+6	+12	0.3
2031	24	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	578	516	107	21	3	12	47	134	10	16	3	209	288	334	622	126	254	23	8	282	77	-16	+2	+0	+6	+13	0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	590	527	111	22	3	13	48	136	10	16	3	211	290	339	630	129	256	23	8	285	79	-15	+2	+0	+6	+13	0.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	599	534	112	22	3	13	49	138	11	16	3	211	290	339	629	129	256	23	8	284	79	-15	+2	+0	+6	+13	0.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	596	532	111	22	3	13	49	139	10	16	3	210	289	337	626	127	256	23	8	283	78	-16	+2	+0	+6	+13	0.6
2035	28	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	585	522	108	21	3	12	48	137	10	13	3	208	287	332	619	124	255	23	8	281	76	-17	+1	-1	+6	+13	0.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	PHI	49%	568	508	104	20	3	12	46	135	9	11	2	206	285	326	611	121	254	24	8	277	74	-18	+1	-1	+6	+12	0.1
2037	30	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	552	493	100	19	3	11	45	133	9	8	2	203	281	319	600	116	252	24	8	273	71	-19	+1	-2	+6	+12	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	PHI	25%	112	100	20	4	1	2	9	27	2	3	1	197	275	307	583	110	246	24	8	266	65	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	PHI	38%	191	170	35	7	1	4	15	45	4	5	1	202	281	322	603	120	249	24	8	274	70	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	PHI	45%	252	225	47	9	1	6	20	59	5	7	1	207	286	332	618	126	252	23	8	280	74	-8	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	278	248	52	10	2	6	23	64	5	8	2	210	289	340	629	130	255	23	8	284	77	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	293	262	55	10	2	7	24	68	5	8	2	212	291	345	637	133	257	23	8	287	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	302	269	57	11	2	7	25	70	5	8	2	212	291	345	637	133	256	23	8	287	79	-8	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	298	266	57	11	2	7	25	69	5	8	2	211	290	343	633	131	256	23	8	286	78	-8	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2035	28	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	291	260	55	10	2	7	24	68	5	7	1	209	289	338	626	129	255	23	8	283	76	-8	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	PHI	49%	276	246	51	10	1	6	23	66	5	5	1	207	286	332	618	125	254	24	8	280	74	-9	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	263	236	48	9	1	6	21	63	4	4	1	204	282	324	607	120	252	24	8	275	71	-9	+0	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2556	2282	477	91	15	58	209	599	45	63	14	209	288	338	627	129	256	23	8	282	72	-76	+7	-2	+27	+55	1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	122	23	4	15	53	152	11	16	4	210	288	341	630	131	257	23	8	282	72	-19	+2	-1	+7	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	6335	5648	1149	226	36	122	510	1537	119	180	33	203	283	321	604	118	255	24	8	275	72	-181	+17	-4	+62	+125	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	118	23	4	13	52	158	12	18	3	203	283	324	607	121	254	24	8	275	72	-20	+2	-0	+7	+14	0.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 486 PAwOBA .319 → .259 (−60)K% 22.2% → 30.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	30.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.91%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.045	7.86%
HBP% /PA	2.67%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	2.18%
Singles /BIP	21.78%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.045	19.89%
Doubles /BIP	7.26%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.045	5.98%
Triples /BIP	1.98%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×1.045	1.79%
Home runs /BIP	1.98%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.045	1.66%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .319 → .259; ISO .127 → .103; BABIP .309 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AClearwater Threshers · 64 PAwOBA .230 → .178 (−52)K% 35.9% → 45.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	35.94%	÷1.065	×1.360	—	—	45.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.81%	÷0.975	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.81%
HBP% /PA	7.81%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	6.40%
Singles /BIP	16.13%	÷1.030	×0.920	—	×1.050	15.13%
Doubles /BIP	3.23%	÷0.975	×0.830	—	×1.050	2.88%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.923	×0.910	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.23%	÷1.083	×0.800	—	×1.050	2.50%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 85, K 113, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .230 → .178; ISO .074 → .052; BABIP .200 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#2Dylan Moorelast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,922 PA	2.9	1,922	63	118	206	310	383	+4	+8	6.6	6.6
/162	664	22	41	+1.3	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 7
#3Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.2	2,767	56	68	206	282	328	+30	+0	2.7	2.7
/162	664	13	16	+7.1	+0.0	0.7	pk7: 3
#4Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3
#5Enzo Hernandez'71-'78 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,612 PA	3.9	2,612	2	129	222*	281*	294*	+28	+4	1.6	1.9
/162	664	1	33	+7.0	+1.0	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Ferrara (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	187/264/281	94	242	3	5	25%	8%	57	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2009 · A	20	44→54	41→40	58→55	45	214/276/316	101	271	7	21	23%	6%	68	-1.0	239/308/317	78	289	5	20	18%	8%	80	-0.2	245/318/310	65	292	4	22	16%	8%	79	-0.2
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	39→33	39→55	59→50	45	191/248/281	90	242	5	22	23%	6%	49	-2.4	195/243/347	152	271	18	8	34%	5%	63	-1.3	192/268/358	166	237	23	7	30%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Jared Serna 2022 · A	20	40→48	38→45	56→50	56	186/292/266	79	230	4	22	19%	11%	65	-1.2	214/282/332	118	267	11	17	23%	7%	74	-0.5	217/275/346	129	264	14	15	23%	6%	72	-0.5
✕Tyler Goeddel 2014 · A	21	44→52	41→45	59→55	40	211/262/313	103	297	7	20	30%	6%	61	-1.5	227/284/341	114	305	9	18	27%	7%	76	-0.4	229/290/345	116	300	9	18	25%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Jorge Mateo 2015 · A	20	40→50	38→50	60→65	46	194/261/276	83	257	5	30	26%	8%	53	-2.1	213/260/315	102	302	6	37	30%	6%	61	-1.5	217/266/353	136	277	13	42	26%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Kristopher Negrón 2007 · A	21	43→49	39→45	56→55	44	206/262/290	84	251	6	12	20%	5%	57	-1.8	215/278/300	85	282	6	18	24%	6%	65	-1.2	231/294/333	102	293	8	23	23%	6%	76	-0.4
✕Tito Polo 2015 · A	20	43→53	39→45	54→60	42	206/268/296	90	278	5	17	27%	6%	61	-1.5	222/276/320	98	295	8	26	26%	5%	69	-0.9	235/290/350	114	311	11	32	27%	5%	78	-0.2
✕Cayden Wallace 2023 · A	21	46→49	42→50	57→50	43	224/279/341	116	300	8	15	27%	6%	74	-0.5	220/277/337	117	289	10	12	26%	6%	73	-0.6	232/281/372	140	285	16	15	24%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→54	38→45	60→50	41	212/274/296	84	304	4	18	30%	6%	63	-1.4	218/263/298	80	292	5	11	26%	5%	58	-1.7	253/299/420	167	321	18	9	26%	5%	101	+0.6
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	47	40→45	60→65	53	222/313/322	100	267	5	29	18%	9%	84	+0.1	234/309/354	120	293	11	18	23%	8%	90	+0.6	231/312/342	111	292	7	11	21%	9%	84	+0.0
✕Jose Ramos 2023 · A	20	38	39→40	57→55	51	185/264/271	86	233	6	20	22%	9%	54	-2.0	184/265/261	77	273	4	22	31%	8%	52	-2.2	194/290/265	72	282	5	28	30%	11%	60	-0.5
✕Ryan Brett 2012 · A	20	48→58	40→45	57→60	47	227/276/330	103	266	5	18	16%	6%	70	-0.8	251/295/355	104	308	7	26	20%	5%	83	+0.1	266/307/374	108	325	8	30	20%	5%	89	+0.4
✕Wes Rogers 2015 · A	21	45→51	41→40	57→65	42	217/270/314	97	294	8	18	28%	6%	65	-1.2	225/283/314	89	299	5	34	25%	7%	70	-0.9	229/287/320	92	301	5	42	24%	7%	70	-0.7
✕Adan Velazquez 2010 · A	20	41→51	40→45	53→50	45	197/263/292	95	245	6	11	22%	6%	58	-1.7	203/256/288	85	282	5	10	28%	5%	54	-2.0	254/293/350	97	308	8	4	20%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Brandon Dailey 2012 · A	20	47	37→45	58→55	44	219/280/295	76	302	3	17	27%	7%	64	-1.3	195/243/292	97	286	8	8	33%	5%	50	-2.3	171/212/271	100	247	8	5	33%	4%	31	-1.3
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	43→53	40→50	57→55	43	207/267/301	93	294	6	22	30%	7%	61	-1.5	237/294/369	132	297	12	21	23%	7%	86	+0.3	245/302/388	143	293	14	19	20%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→56	37→40	56→55	45	224/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	206/266/261	55	280	1	18	25%	7%	51	-2.3	246/312/318	73	319	3	11	22%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→51	39→45	59→55	46	195/272/287	91	280	4	17	30%	9%	60	-1.6	220/296/307	87	294	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Abiatal Avelino 2015 · A	20	48→54	37→45	54→55	45	226/278/307	81	281	4	18	20%	6%	66	-1.1	236/280/321	85	295	5	22	21%	5%	70	-0.9	253/294/359	106	312	9	19	21%	5%	80	-0.1

Matthew Ferrara

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps