Matthew Ferrara — OGILVIE

Matthew FerraraSS Clearwater Threshers

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 183 lbs A HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION486 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP283

ISO105

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$32M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE54

scouting grade only

SPEED70

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$5M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$9M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$12M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	54	7	1	0	1	5	23	5	1	0	130	266	204	469	74	200	36	8	235	45	-4	+0	—	—	+1	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	31	5	1	0	109	234	182	416	73	181	48	6	179	7	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2025	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	31	5	1	0	109	234	182	416	73	217	48	6	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	54	7	1	0	1	5	23	5	1	0	130	266	204	469	74	200	36	8	235	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	31	5	1	0	109	234	182	416	73	181	48	6	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	31	5	1	0	109	234	182	416	73	181	48	6	179	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	19	A MLE	PHI	—	486	424	81	19	4	5	40	154	13	36	5	191	281	290	571	99	279	32	8	257	60	-23	+5	+0	+5	+11	-0.2
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A RAW	PHI	—	486	411	100	22	6	6	53	108	13	36	5	243	348	370	718	127	309	22	11	322	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	19	A MLE	PHI	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		281	33	11	271	69	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	A MLE	PHI	—	495	432	82	19	4	5	41	157	13	36	5	190	280	287	567	97	278	32	8	257	60	-23	+5	+0	+5	+11	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PHI	25%	372	329	70	15	3	6	31	102	9	12	2	213	298	331	629	119	284	27	8	284	79	-9	+2	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	PHI	38%	466	413	90	19	3	9	39	124	11	15	2	218	302	344	646	126	285	27	8	294	85	-8	+2	+0	+5	+10	0.9
2029	22	MLB MLE	PHI	45%	522	460	102	21	4	11	45	136	12	17	3	222	308	357	664	135	286	26	9	300	89	-7	+2	+0	+6	+11	1.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	PHI	49%	604	533	120	25	4	14	52	155	14	20	3	225	311	366	676	141	287	26	9	304	92	-6	+3	+0	+6	+13	1.7
2031	24	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	599	528	120	25	4	14	52	152	14	20	3	227	313	369	682	142	288	25	9	306	93	-5	+3	+0	+6	+13	1.8
2032	25	MLB MLE	PHI	51%	591	521	118	24	4	14	52	150	13	20	3	226	312	369	681	142	288	25	9	308	94	-4	+3	+0	+6	+13	1.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	PHI	51%	587	517	117	24	4	14	52	149	13	20	3	226	313	369	682	143	288	25	9	308	95	-4	+3	+0	+6	+13	1.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	584	514	117	24	4	14	52	148	13	19	3	228	314	372	686	144	288	25	9	308	95	-4	+3	+0	+6	+13	1.8
2035	28	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	577	507	115	24	4	14	52	147	13	18	3	227	315	373	687	146	287	25	9	307	94	-4	+2	-1	+6	+13	1.7
2036	29	MLB MLE	PHI	49%	566	497	112	23	4	13	51	146	13	17	3	225	314	366	680	141	287	26	9	306	93	-5	+2	-1	+6	+12	1.5
2037	30	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	554	487	109	22	4	13	50	144	12	15	2	224	311	366	677	142	286	26	9	303	91	-6	+2	-2	+6	+12	1.3
2038	31	MLB MLE	PHI	47%	539	473	103	21	3	12	49	142	12	12	2	218	307	351	658	133	284	26	9	299	89	-7	+2	-3	+6	+12	0.9
2039	32	MLB MLE	PHI	51%	521	457	99	20	3	11	47	139	12	10	2	217	306	346	652	129	281	27	9	294	85	-9	+1	-4	+6	+11	0.5
2040	33	MLB MLE	PHI	50%	491	433	91	18	3	10	44	134	11	7	1	210	299	335	634	125	277	27	9	287	81	-11	+1	-4	+5	+11	0.1
2041	34	MLB MLE	PHI	45%	444	391	79	15	3	8	40	124	10	5	1	202	293	317	610	115	271	28	9	279	75	-13	+1	-5	+5	+10	-0.3
2027	20	MLB CTX	PHI	25%	93	83	19	4	1	2	8	26	2	3	0	229	312	373	685	145	286	28	9	271	79	-2	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	PHI	38%	178	157	35	7	1	4	15	47	4	6	1	223	307	357	664	134	288	26	8	281	85	-3	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	PHI	45%	237	210	47	10	2	5	20	62	5	8	1	224	306	362	668	138	289	26	8	287	89	-3	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	PHI	49%	298	263	59	12	2	7	26	76	7	10	2	224	311	365	676	141	290	26	9	292	92	-3	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	301	265	62	13	2	8	26	77	7	10	2	234	319	389	707	155	291	26	9	294	93	-2	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	PHI	51%	301	265	62	13	2	8	26	76	7	10	2	234	319	389	707	155	291	25	9	296	94	-2	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.9
2033	26	MLB CTX	PHI	51%	301	265	62	13	2	8	26	76	7	10	2	234	319	389	707	155	291	25	9	296	95	-2	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.9
2034	27	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	295	260	60	12	2	8	26	75	7	10	2	231	317	385	702	154	291	25	9	296	95	-2	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.9
2035	28	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	289	254	58	12	2	7	26	74	7	9	1	228	317	374	691	146	290	26	9	296	94	-2	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	PHI	49%	276	243	55	11	2	7	25	71	6	8	1	226	314	374	688	148	290	26	9	294	93	-2	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.7
2037	30	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	265	233	53	11	2	6	24	69	6	7	1	227	316	369	685	142	289	26	9	291	91	-3	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.6
2038	31	MLB CTX	PHI	47%	255	224	50	10	2	6	23	67	6	6	1	223	312	366	678	143	286	26	9	287	89	-3	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	PHI	51%	267	235	51	10	2	6	24	71	6	5	1	217	306	353	659	136	283	27	9	282	85	-5	+1	-2	+3	+6	0.3
2040	33	MLB CTX	PHI	50%	243	214	45	9	1	5	22	66	5	4	1	210	299	332	631	121	279	27	9	275	81	-6	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.1
2041	34	MLB CTX	PHI	45%	200	176	36	7	1	4	18	56	4	2	0	205	293	324	617	119	273	28	9	267	75	-6	+0	-2	+2	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3799	3347	754	154	26	91	335	989	86	108	18	225	312	368	680	143	290	26	9	289	89	-46	+14	-9	+41	+82	8.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	129	26	4	16	57	169	15	18	3	225	312	368	680	143	289	26	9	289	89	-8	+2	-2	+7	+14	1.4
Career	—	MLE		—	8090	7123	1569	321	54	178	713	2126	187	228	36	220	308	355	663	135	286	26	9	299	89	-102	+31	-20	+86	+174	17.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	126	26	4	14	57	171	15	18	3	220	307	353	660	133	287	26	9	299	89	-8	+3	-2	+7	+14	1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
/162	664	23	1	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#3Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#4Khalil Greenelast yr '09 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,835 PA	4.3	2,835	90	25	245	302	422	+30	+14	13.0	13.0
/162	664	21	6	+7.1	+3.2	3.0	pk7: 13
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.9	3,950	87	111	222	306	358	+41	+0	11.4	9.4
/162	664	15	19	+6.9	+0.0	1.9	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Ferrara (OGILVIE)	19	45	40	70	54	200/284/301	101	281	2	8	29%	8%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A	19	50→36	41→50	55	45	231/306/331	100	330	7	18	30%	8%	83	+0.1	193/323/316	123	270	12	20	30%	11%	89	+0.5	189/341/340	151	235	17	19	25%	12%	100	+0.7
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→52	37→45	60→50	41	210/271/293	83	300	4	18	30%	6%	61	-1.5	213/257/291	78	285	5	11	26%	4%	54	-2.0	254/306/422	167	324	18	9	26%	6%	98	+0.5
✕Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→45	59→50	55	210/300/285	75	272	4	16	22%	11%	70	-0.8	230/288/322	92	306	6	11	25%	7%	74	-0.6	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Addison Russell 2013 · A	19	54→53	46→55	59→50	43	258/312/400	142	345	12	16	28%	7%	100	+1.3	237/300/393	156	312	16	12	28%	7%	95	+0.9	239/310/406	168	295	19	5	25%	8%	97	+0.9
✕Jay Allen II 2022 · A	19	48→46	45→40	58→55	44	236/308/360	124	307	12	21	26%	7%	91	+0.7	189/288/275	86	288	6	30	33%	9%	65	-1.2	197/281/296	99	271	10	24	29%	7%	64	-1.0
✕Carlos Jorge 2022 · A	18	49→45	42→45	63→60	46	232/298/352	119	309	6	24	26%	8%	84	+0.1	207/282/339	132	305	12	26	34%	8%	76	-0.4	183/259/311	128	278	13	29	36%	8%	60	-0.9
✕Luis Santana 2018 · A	19	52	39→45	54→50	50	243/311/343	100	274	5	11	13%	7%	87	+0.4	246/316/336	90	288	6	9	16%	7%	88	+0.4	234/303/348	114	293	12	10	23%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	202/254/274	72	296	2	25	30%	6%	49	-2.4	242/294/410	167	331	20	27	32%	6%	94	+0.4
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	42→52	39→50	57→55	42	201/259/292	90	285	6	22	30%	7%	56	-1.9	230/286/359	129	289	11	21	23%	7%	82	-0.0	252/312/373	121	300	11	11	19%	7%	93	+0.8
✕Victor Robles 2016 · A	19	50→52	42→50	55→60	45	240/311/353	113	291	8	21	20%	6%	90	+0.6	242/308/360	118	303	8	23	22%	5%	91	+0.6	246/315/392	146	305	12	27	22%	6%	97	+0.9
✕Jose Astudillo 2023 · A	19	44	37→45	54→55	47	208/265/283	75	252	3	14	19%	6%	56	-1.9	245/295/319	74	283	3	14	14%	5%	75	-0.5	286/329/371	85	315	6	22	11%	5%	96	+0.4
✕Abiatal Avelino 2014 · A	19	51→52	36→45	60→55	49	237/300/311	74	283	2	24	16%	7%	75	-0.5	226/271/305	79	286	4	22	21%	5%	63	-1.4	241/281/343	102	297	8	19	21%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Ryan Brett 2012 · A	20	48→57	40→45	57→60	47	227/276/330	103	266	5	18	16%	6%	70	-0.8	249/292/350	101	305	7	26	20%	5%	81	-0.1	262/302/367	105	319	8	30	20%	5%	86	+0.2
●Royce Lewis 2018 · A	19	45→49	41→60	55→50	47	218/288/314	96	268	8	16	21%	7%	73	-0.6	216/264/320	104	282	9	16	26%	6%	64	-1.3	259/321/470	211	301	29	14	24%	8%	118	+1.2
✕Jared Serna 2022 · A	20	42→48	39→45	56→50	53	200/298/293	93	253	6	22	22%	10%	72	-0.7	217/285/340	123	274	12	17	24%	7%	78	-0.3	217/277/347	130	268	14	15	24%	6%	74	-0.4
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	50→52	39→40	54→50	56	234/323/325	91	290	6	14	20%	11%	88	+0.4	239/315/327	88	307	7	14	23%	8%	86	+0.3	239/316/323	84	307	7	14	23%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2016 · A	20	49	39→45	60→65	52	227/313/330	103	311	4	16	26%	10%	85	+0.2	205/272/294	89	330	6	26	36%	7%	61	-1.5	229/304/333	104	308	11	52	28%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/290/330	103	300	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	222/274/319	97	291	7	16	25%	6%	68	-1.0	253/326/354	101	349	8	50	27%	9%	92	+0.5
✕L.J. Hoes 2009 · A	19	50→60	37→40	56→50	52	233/301/304	71	285	4	11	19%	9%	74	-0.6	238/285/305	67	306	4	12	22%	6%	68	-1.0	274/333/360	86	328	5	15	17%	7%	95	+0.9

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps