Matthew Ferrara — OGILVIE

Matthew FerraraSS Clearwater Threshers

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 183 lbs A HR +11%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 3.4 · 2034

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.207 / .272 / .328

PA78

HR2

K%31

BB%7

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

45→45

PWR

40→40

SPD

70→70

FLD

50→50

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.4peak

2033

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+2.9	$27M	+$26M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.2	$31M	+$30M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.3	$32M	+$32M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+3.4	$34M	+$28M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$11M	+3.3	$34M	+$23M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+3.0	$32M	+$17M
Totals		$36M		$191M	+$155M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	64	55	6	1	0	1	4	31	5	1	0	.109	.234	.182	.416	.073	.217	48	6	.179	-5	-8	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	19	A	Clearwater Threshers	63	59	10	2	2	1	2	30	1	2	0	.169	.210	.322	.532	.153	.310	48	3	.253	52	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	19	MLB	PHI	15	14	2	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	.143	.200	.143	.343	.000	.290	33	7	.266	62	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	19	MLB	PHI	78	73	12	2	2	1	3	35	1	2	0	.164	.208	.288	.495	.123	.289	45	4	.255	54	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 7%	PHI	191	171	39	7	2	5	15	49	3	6	1	.228	.302	.380	.682	.152	.283	26	8	.301	88	-3	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.6
2028	21	MLB 18%	PHI	325	290	67	12	3	9	27	80	5	10	2	.231	.307	.386	.694	.155	.284	25	8	.311	96	-1	+1	+0	+3	+9	1.3
2029	22	MLB 27%	PHI	422	376	89	16	4	13	37	101	6	13	3	.237	.315	.404	.719	.168	.285	24	9	.319	102	+1	+1	+0	+5	+12	1.9
2030	23	MLB 38%	PHI	487	433	104	18	5	16	44	114	7	15	3	.240	.320	.416	.736	.176	.286	23	9	.324	106	+3	+2	+0	+5	+14	2.5
2031	24	MLB 46%	PHI	529	467	113	20	5	18	49	122	8	16	3	.242	.324	.422	.746	.180	.286	23	9	.328	109	+6	+2	+0	+6	+15	2.9
2032	25	MLB 53%	PHI	554	489	118	21	5	19	52	127	8	17	3	.241	.324	.421	.745	.180	.287	23	9	.332	112	+7	+2	+0	+6	+16	3.2
2033	26	MLB 61%	PHI	567	499	122	21	6	20	55	130	8	17	3	.244	.329	.431	.760	.186	.287	23	10	.333	113	+8	+2	+0	+6	+16	3.3
2034	27	MLB 69%	PHI	571	501	122	21	6	20	56	132	9	17	3	.244	.330	.429	.760	.186	.287	23	10	.333	113	+9	+2	+0	+6	+16	3.4
2035	28	MLB 70%	PHI	569	500	120	21	5	19	56	132	8	17	2	.240	.326	.416	.742	.176	.287	23	10	.332	112	+8	+3	-1	+6	+16	3.3
2036	29	MLB 72%	PHI	561	493	117	20	5	19	55	132	8	16	2	.237	.324	.414	.738	.176	.286	24	10	.330	111	+7	+2	-1	+6	+16	3.0
2037	30	MLB 73%	PHI	551	483	114	20	5	18	55	132	8	16	2	.236	.324	.410	.734	.174	.284	24	10	.327	108	+5	+2	-2	+6	+16	2.8
2038	31	MLB 74%	PHI	537	471	110	19	5	17	53	130	8	14	1	.234	.321	.403	.725	.170	.283	24	10	.323	105	+3	+2	-3	+6	+15	2.4
2039	32	MLB 85%	PHI	519	456	105	18	5	16	51	129	7	14	0	.230	.317	.397	.714	.167	.281	25	10	.318	102	+1	+3	-4	+6	+15	2.1
2040	33	MLB 84%	PHI	490	432	97	16	4	15	48	125	7	13	0	.225	.312	.384	.696	.160	.280	26	10	.313	98	-1	+3	-4	+5	+14	1.7
2041	34	MLB 83%	PHI	443	391	86	14	4	13	43	117	6	12	0	.220	.307	.376	.683	.156	.278	26	10	.306	93	-4	+2	-5	+5	+13	1.1
2042	35	MLB 83%	PHI	389	343	73	12	3	10	38	106	5	11	0	.213	.301	.353	.653	.140	.276	27	10	.298	86	-6	+2	-6	+4	+11	0.6
2043	36	MLB 93%	PHI	329	291	61	10	3	8	31	93	4	9	0	.210	.294	.347	.642	.137	.272	28	9	.289	80	-8	+2	-6	+4	+9	0.1
2044	37	MLB	PHI	265	235	46	7	2	6	25	78	3	7	0	.196	.281	.319	.601	.123	.269	29	9	.279	72	-8	+1	-7	+3	+8	-0.4
2045	38	MLB	PHI	196	174	34	5	2	4	18	59	2	5	0	.195	.278	.316	.594	.121	.264	30	9	.269	64	-8	+1	-8	+2	+6	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8574	7564	1745	299	79	266	813	2124	125	246	28	.231	.316	.397	.712	.166	.283	25	9	.318	101	+12	+38	-46	+92	+243	34.5
/ 162G	—			650	573	132	23	6	20	62	161	9	19	2	.230	.315	.396	.711	.166	.284	25	10	.318	101	+1	+3	-4	+7	+18	2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	64	54	7	1	0	1	5	23	5	1	0	.130	.266	.204	.469	.074	.200	36	8	.235	38	-4	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matthew Ferrara (OGILVIE)	19	45	40	70	—	.207/.272/.328	.120	.289	2	2	31%	7%	66	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Esteury Ruiz 2018 · A	19	47→57	43→50	56→70	38	.227/.269/.356	.129	.308	8	18	28%	5%	71	-0.3	.204/.253/.311	.107	.309	9	27	35%	5%	53	-1.5	.264/.338/.396	.132	.327	13	74	22%	6%	108	+1.6
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45	41→55	55	43	.216/.285/.315	.099	.290	7	13	27%	7%	68	-0.5	.204/.313/.323	.119	.295	10	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	.202/.308/.336	.135	.284	11	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
●Addison Russell 2014 · A	20	48→52	49→55	58→50	45	.235/.304/.393	.158	.314	14	16	29%	8%	96	+1.5	.241/.304/.403	.162	.308	17	10	26%	7%	98	+1.6	.241/.312/.408	.167	.299	18	5	25%	8%	96	+1.3
✕Leo Balcazar 2023 · A	19	44→48	44→40	54→45	40	.212/.276/.331	.119	.313	11	14	34%	7%	69	-0.4	.220/.273/.310	.090	.313	8	10	30%	6%	60	-1.0	.223/.267/.300	.077	.281	8	7	23%	5%	52	-1.3
●Julio Rodríguez 2019 · A	18	47→56	43→60	59→55	46	.228/.289/.349	.121	.291	8	9	24%	7%	77	+0.1	.249/.303/.399	.150	.321	15	8	26%	6%	97	+1.5	.288/.348/.497	.209	.353	27	29	25%	7%	136	+3.8
✕Luke Adams 2023 · A	19	49→37	40→45	54→55	45	.229/.303/.328	.098	.328	7	17	30%	8%	79	+0.3	.197/.323/.323	.126	.275	12	20	30%	11%	89	+1.0	.179/.324/.312	.133	.244	14	22	29%	12%	86	+0.5
✕Jose Escobar 2023 · A	18	45→47	44→50	57→50	40	.222/.271/.344	.122	.287	10	14	26%	5%	69	-0.4	.224/.289/.328	.104	.294	9	12	26%	6%	72	-0.2	.212/.286/.306	.093	.292	9	9	28%	7%	63	-0.5
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	40→50	41→45	56→55	44	.195/.266/.289	.094	.272	9	17	30%	8%	53	-1.5	.217/.283/.315	.098	.299	7	21	28%	8%	66	-0.6	.253/.315/.362	.109	.325	7	28	23%	8%	88	+0.8
✕Charlie Culberson 2008 · A	19	45→52	38→45	59→50	41	.210/.271/.294	.083	.301	4	17	30%	6%	56	-1.3	.208/.251/.285	.077	.277	5	11	26%	4%	44	-2.1	.255/.307/.429	.174	.324	18	9	26%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Ezequiel Duran 2018 · A	19	48→56	45→55	54→50	38	.231/.275/.364	.133	.331	11	10	33%	5%	76	+0.0	.187/.229/.280	.093	.294	8	9	37%	4%	34	-2.8	.235/.283/.404	.168	.313	19	14	30%	5%	88	+0.7
✕Masyn Winn 2022 · A	20	41→51	40→50	56→55	42	.202/.257/.295	.093	.281	7	21	30%	7%	50	-1.7	.228/.284/.359	.131	.288	12	22	24%	7%	78	+0.2	.239/.295/.382	.143	.285	14	19	21%	7%	86	+0.8
●Lewis Brinson 2013 · A	19	42→52	44→55	55→50	34	.200/.249/.325	.126	.320	10	11	39%	6%	54	-1.4	.200/.252/.337	.137	.328	15	13	41%	6%	59	-1.1	.237/.289/.413	.176	.298	20	17	27%	6%	92	+0.8
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2022 · A	21	42→50	47→55	58→55	39	.214/.256/.353	.139	.265	14	15	25%	4%	65	-0.7	.239/.275/.401	.162	.303	18	22	27%	4%	85	+0.7	.244/.283/.399	.155	.300	17	24	24%	4%	86	+0.7
●Royce Lewis 2018 · A	19	46→49	41→60	54→50	47	.220/.290/.316	.096	.269	8	15	21%	7%	70	-0.3	.218/.267/.324	.106	.281	10	16	25%	6%	62	-0.9	.261/.323/.483	.222	.300	31	14	24%	8%	123	+1.6
✕Jay Allen II 2022 · A	19	49→39	44→40	57→55	44	.236/.308/.354	.118	.313	11	19	27%	7%	88	+0.9	.194/.291/.281	.087	.290	6	30	32%	9%	63	-0.8	.169/.281/.244	.075	.252	6	35	32%	9%	48	-1.0
●Desmond Jennings 2007 · A	20	46→56	40→50	56→60	44	.220/.278/.309	.089	.282	7	23	24%	6%	63	-0.9	.248/.308/.365	.117	.293	10	28	18%	7%	89	+1.0	.252/.331/.406	.154	.301	15	28	21%	9%	106	+2.2
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2011 · A	18	44	44→45	52→50	41	.218/.277/.333	.115	.291	11	9	28%	6%	69	-0.4	.218/.286/.320	.102	.285	6	11	25%	6%	69	-0.4	.226/.280/.337	.111	.291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2
✕Adrian Pinto 2023 · A	20	50	41→45	59→65	52	.234/.322/.340	.106	.284	6	29	19%	9%	90	+1.0	.231/.312/.347	.116	.294	10	19	23%	8%	88	+0.9	.235/.317/.335	.100	.305	7	18	23%	9%	81	+0.1
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	47→56	41→45	56→70	47	.226/.290/.328	.102	.300	7	17	26%	8%	72	-0.2	.218/.270/.316	.098	.284	7	16	24%	6%	60	-1.0	.260/.332/.371	.111	.354	9	50	27%	9%	98	+1.0
✕Jorge Mateo 2014 · A	19	43→46	42→50	59→65	46	.210/.275/.314	.104	.271	9	28	25%	8%	63	-0.8	.208/.260/.301	.093	.288	6	35	28%	6%	53	-1.5	.217/.264/.366	.149	.272	14	44	25%	5%	70	-0.2

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)