Juan Cazarez — OGILVIE

Juan Cazarez P ACL Mariners

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 172 lbs ROK peak 0.4 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.54

FIP5.54

K%14.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%1.3%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL3535

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	5	5	20	92	20	2	1	100%	4.0	14.8%	2.7%	12.1%	1.5%	9.00	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	5	5	20	92	20	2	1	100%	4.0	14.8%	2.7%	12.1%	1.5%	9.00	3.02	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	5	5	20	92	20	2	1	100%	4.0	21.7%	2.2%	19.6%	1.1%	9.00	2.05	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	8	40	171	35	17	3	67%	3.4	13.9%	12.4%	1.5%	2.8%	4.91	5.02	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	12	8	40	171	35	17	3	67%	3.4	13.9%	12.4%	1.5%	2.8%	4.91	5.02	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	12	8	40	171	35	17	3	67%	3.4	20.5%	9.9%	10.5%	1.8%	4.91	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	9	38	177	52	13	7	90%	3.8	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	5.5%	5.17	5.61	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	10	9	38	177	52	13	7	90%	3.8	20.0%	9.2%	10.8%	5.5%	5.17	5.61	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	SEA	10	9	38	177	52	13	7	90%	3.8	29.4%	7.3%	22.0%	4.0%	5.17	3.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SEA	8	8	39	166	27	20	5	100%	4.9	16.0%	12.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.32	5.26	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	SEA	4	4	19	80	13	10	2	100%	4.8	16.0%	12.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.32	5.26	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	19	82	13	10	2	100%	4.8	16.0%	12.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.32	4.88	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	134	103	21	100%	4.8	16.0%	12.1%	3.9%	2.9%	5.32	4.88	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		27	22	99	440	73	40	16	81%	3.7	16.5%	9.1%	7.4%	3.6%	5.84	4.84	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	45	200	892	147	81	32	81%	3.7	16.5%	9.1%	7.4%	3.6%	5.84	4.84	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Cazarez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.54	14.1%	12.8%	3.0%	—	5.26	16.0%	3.9%	39	-0.28	—	—	—
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	89
Felix Cepeda R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	19	SP-	5.78	11.5%	14.6%	3.3%	.297	5.81	17.0%	-6.4%	71	+0.03	3.58	204	87
Tyler Gough R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	19	SP	5.48	13.4%	13.3%	3.3%	.297	3.58	20.0%	6.5%	158	-1.90	3.12	188	87
Yovanny Cabrera R 2021 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP	5.18	14.5%	13.7%	2.9%	.238	5.21	18.5%	1.6%	149	+0.03	4.39	243	87
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	87
Darlin Saladin R 2023 · 4.98 FIP	20	SP	4.98	16.2%	13.3%	2.8%	.280	3.79	19.3%	8.0%	274	-1.19	2.91	407	86
Gary Gill Hill R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	18	SP	4.91	14.1%	12.2%	2.6%	.356	4.59	16.1%	9.8%	380	-0.32	4.32	417	85
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	85
Jose Disla R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	20	SP	5.52	15.8%	13.4%	3.8%	.296	4.49	19.7%	8.8%	70	-1.03	3.61	139	85
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	84
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	84
Orlando Noriega R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	19	SP	4.82	13.6%	12.5%	2.3%	.335	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	150	83
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	83
Luis Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.96 FIP	19	SP-	4.96	12.8%	12.5%	2.5%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	4.96	111	83
Logan Sendelbach R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP	5.31	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	.300	4.58	12.8%	4.3%	297	-0.73	4.14	340	83
Miguel Toscano R 2023 · 5.80 FIP	17	SP	5.80	10.6%	10.4%	4.2%	.288	4.40	11.9%	0.7%	142	-1.40	3.58	183	82
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	82
Benjamin Arias R 2022 · 4.68 FIP	20	SP	4.68	13.9%	13.5%	1.9%	.359	4.29	16.4%	6.4%	184	-0.39	3.20	302	82
Ramon Santos R 2015 · 6.07 FIP	20	SP	6.07	7.2%	14.3%	3.2%	.352	4.52	13.3%	3.4%	191	-1.55	3.74	355	82
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	33	15.2%	12.4%	1.14	5.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99