Juan Cazarez
P
ACL Mariners
Age 20
RHP
5'11" / 172 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144135vR 126
ERA5.57
FIP5.57
K%14.1%
BB%13.0%
K-BB%1.2%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 5 | 5 | 20 | 92 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 14.8% | 2.7% | 12.1% | 1.5% | 9.00 | 3.01 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 5 | 5 | 20 | 92 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 21.7% | 2.2% | 19.6% | 1.1% | 9.00 | 2.05 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 12 | 8 | 40 | 171 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 67% | 3.4 | 13.9% | 12.4% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 5.25 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 12 | 8 | 40 | 171 | 35 | 17 | 3 | 67% | 3.4 | 20.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 4.91 | 3.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Mariners | 10 | 9 | 38 | 177 | 52 | 13 | 7 | 90% | 3.8 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 5.5% | 5.17 | 5.61 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 27 | 113 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 100% | 4.5 | 14.1% | 13.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 5.57 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 14.1% | 13.0% | 1.2% | 3.0% | 5.57 | 5.57 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | SEA | — | — | 65 | 290 | 68 | 28 | 10 | — | — | 23.4% | 9.5% | 13.9% | 3.6% | 5.33 | 5.60 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SEA | 6 | 6 | 28 | 119 | 19 | 14 | 3 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.0% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.35 | 5.28 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | SEA | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 16.0% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.35 | 5.28 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 14 | 58 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 16.0% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.35 | 4.90 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 41 | 41 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 101 | 29 | 100% | 4.8 | 16.0% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.35 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 27 | 22 | 99 | 440 | 73 | 40 | 17 | 81% | 3.7 | 16.5% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 5.84 | 4.93 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 45 | 200 | 892 | 147 | 81 | 34 | 81% | 3.7 | 16.5% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 5.84 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Cazarez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.57 | 14.1% | 13.0% | 3.0% | — | 5.28 | 16.0% | 3.8% | 28 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Luis Hernandez R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 89 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 88 |
| Yovanny Cabrera R 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.16 | 14.5% | 13.7% | 2.8% | .238 | 5.31 | 18.5% | 1.6% | 149 | +0.15 | 4.39 | 243 | 87 |
| Jairo Garcia R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.47 | 16.4% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .298 | 5.25 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 96 | +0.78 | 3.88 | 148 | 87 |
| Darlin Saladin R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.98 | 16.2% | 13.3% | 2.8% | .280 | 3.98 | 18.8% | 7.8% | 255 | -1.00 | 2.91 | 388 | 86 |
| Jeury Espinal R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.08 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 114 | 86 |
| Ryan Harvey R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.98 | 16.7% | 13.1% | 3.0% | .294 | 3.81 | 16.9% | 3.9% | 66 | -1.17 | 3.56 | 112 | 85 |
| Jose Disla R 2026 · 5.52 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.52 | 15.8% | 13.4% | 3.8% | .296 | 4.46 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 70 | -1.06 | 3.57 | 139 | 85 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 84 |
| Bryan Balzer R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.0% | 13.7% | 1.9% | .360 | 4.78 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 73 | +0.20 | 4.58 | 123 | 84 |
| Abel Duarte R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 84 |
| Jharold Clemente R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 20 | SP | 5.08 | 17.5% | 13.6% | 3.2% | .258 | 5.35 | 13.3% | 4.3% | 92 | +0.27 | 3.91 | 116 | 84 |
| Orlando Noriega R 2025 · 4.82 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.82 | 13.6% | 12.5% | 2.3% | .335 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 150 | 83 |
| Denny Lima R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.66 | 13.8% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 107 | 83 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 83 |
| David Sanchez R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 19 | SP | 5.57 | 11.0% | 13.3% | 3.1% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.33 | 110 | 83 |
| Luis Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.96 | 12.8% | 12.5% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 111 | 83 |
| Denis Diaz R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.51 | 12.7% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.84 | 11.9% | -4.9% | 92 | +0.33 | 3.39 | 129 | 82 |
| Logan Sendelbach R 2027 · 5.31 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.31 | 11.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .300 | 4.63 | 12.8% | 4.3% | 297 | -0.68 | 4.06 | 340 | 82 |
| Ramon Santos R 2026 · 6.07 FIP | 20 | SP | 6.07 | 7.2% | 14.3% | 3.2% | .352 | 4.56 | 13.3% | 3.4% | 191 | -1.51 | 3.84 | 355 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 15.1% | 12.6% | 1.15 | 5.46 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |