Miguel Toscano — OGILVIE

Miguel Toscano P FCL Rays

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs ROK peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 154145vR 137

ERA6.34

FIP6.34

K%12.2%

BB%18.3%

K-BB%-6.2%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	10	42	180	28	15	5	83%	3.5	10.6%	10.4%	0.2%	4.1%	4.97	5.80	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	12	10	42	180	28	15	5	83%	3.5	10.6%	10.4%	0.2%	4.1%	4.97	5.80	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	12	10	42	180	28	15	5	83%	3.5	15.6%	8.3%	7.2%	2.8%	4.97	4.40	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	40	171	27	10	1	92%	3.3	10.7%	7.3%	3.4%	0.8%	3.15	3.58	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	40	171	27	10	1	92%	3.3	10.7%	7.3%	3.4%	0.8%	3.15	3.58	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	12	11	40	171	27	10	1	92%	3.3	15.8%	5.8%	9.9%	0.6%	3.15	2.83	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	7	40	184	35	28	1	64%	3.6	12.9%	19.0%	-6.1%	0.9%	3.83	4.93	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	11	7	40	184	35	28	1	64%	3.6	12.9%	19.0%	-6.1%	0.9%	3.83	4.93	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	11	7	40	184	35	28	1	64%	3.6	19.0%	15.2%	3.8%	0.5%	3.83	3.78	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	16	5	62	270	47	19	5	31%	3.9	12.1%	8.7%	3.4%	2.6%	5.69	4.58	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	16	5	62	270	47	19	5	31%	3.9	12.1%	8.7%	3.4%	2.6%	5.69	4.58	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	TB	11	4	43	193	36	15	4	36%	3.9	18.7%	7.8%	10.9%	2.1%	6.33	3.65	—
2026	20	A RAW	TB	5	1	19	77	11	4	1	20%	3.8	14.3%	5.2%	9.1%	1.3%	4.26	3.26	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	63	268	39	44	8	100%	7.0	14.5%	16.4%	-1.9%	2.8%	5.98	5.88	-0.7
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	67	281	47	42	8	100%	6.7	16.6%	15.0%	1.6%	2.8%	5.64	5.49	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	69	292	52	41	8	100%	6.9	17.9%	14.1%	3.8%	2.7%	5.39	5.25	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	71	299	55	41	8	100%	6.4	18.6%	13.6%	5.0%	2.7%	5.22	5.12	-0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	72	303	57	40	8	100%	6.5	18.9%	13.3%	5.6%	2.7%	5.12	5.05	-0.1
2032	26	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	72	303	58	40	8	100%	6.5	19.1%	13.3%	5.8%	2.7%	5.06	5.03	-0.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	TB	11	11	71	298	57	40	8	100%	6.4	19.1%	13.4%	5.8%	2.7%	5.06	5.07	-0.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	68	289	55	39	8	100%	6.8	19.0%	13.5%	5.5%	2.8%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
2035	29	MLB MLE	TB	10	10	65	276	52	38	8	100%	6.5	18.8%	13.7%	5.0%	3.0%	5.21	5.28	-0.3
2036	30	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	62	260	48	36	8	100%	6.8	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	3.2%	5.36	5.46	-0.4
2027	21	MLB CTX	TB	5	5	31	131	19	21	4	100%	6.2	14.5%	16.4%	-1.9%	2.8%	5.98	5.88	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	7	7	49	207	34	31	6	100%	7.0	16.6%	15.0%	1.6%	2.8%	5.64	5.49	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	58	245	44	34	7	100%	6.4	17.9%	14.1%	3.8%	2.7%	5.39	5.25	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	63	266	49	36	7	100%	7.0	18.6%	13.6%	5.0%	2.7%	5.22	5.12	-0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	66	279	53	37	8	100%	6.6	18.9%	13.3%	5.6%	2.7%	5.12	5.05	-0.1
2032	26	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	67	283	54	38	8	100%	6.7	19.1%	13.3%	5.8%	2.7%	5.06	5.03	-0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	67	283	54	38	8	100%	6.7	19.1%	13.4%	5.8%	2.7%	5.06	5.07	-0.1
2034	28	MLB CTX	TB	10	10	65	274	52	37	8	100%	6.5	19.0%	13.5%	5.5%	2.8%	5.11	5.15	-0.2
2035	29	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	62	262	49	36	8	100%	6.9	18.8%	13.7%	5.0%	3.0%	5.21	5.28	-0.3
2036	30	MLB CTX	TB	9	9	58	245	45	34	8	100%	6.4	18.4%	14.0%	4.4%	3.2%	5.36	5.46	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		88	88	586	2476	454	343	70	100%	6.7	18.3%	13.9%	4.5%	2.8%	5.26	4.85	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	155	117	24	100%	6.7	18.3%	13.9%	4.5%	2.8%	5.26	4.85	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		51	33	183	805	94	90	18	65%	3.6	11.7%	11.1%	0.5%	2.2%	4.57	4.72	-2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		56	36	200	878	102	98	19	65%	3.6	11.7%	11.1%	0.5%	2.2%	4.57	4.72	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Toscano (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.34	12.2%	18.3%	2.9%	—	5.53	16.4%	1.3%	199	-0.81	—	—	—
Karsen Lindell R 2016 · 7.17 FIP	20	SP-	7.17	4.3%	20.7%	3.3%	.326	6.72	9.8%	-9.2%	54	-0.45	4.94	112	90
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	88
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	87
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	84
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	82
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	82
Darlin Alcántara R 2022 · 6.23 FIP	20	SP-	6.23	12.3%	22.2%	2.5%	.320	4.64	12.3%	2.5%	31	-1.59	3.61	118	82
Vitico Valdez R 2023 · 5.68 FIP	19	SW	5.68	11.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.260	4.04	14.7%	-2.5%	43	-1.64	4.04	132	82
Samuel Vásquez R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	19	SW	5.15	13.3%	17.2%	1.8%	.220	6.13	12.7%	-8.3%	49	+0.98	4.01	273	81
Kendeglys Virguez R 2023 · 5.44 FIP	19	SP-	5.44	14.4%	18.5%	2.2%	.342	4.27	23.2%	10.2%	81	-1.17	4.10	142	81
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	81
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	81
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	80
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	80
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	80
Edrick Agosto R 2017 · 6.67 FIP	20	SP-	6.67	11.4%	17.1%	4.3%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	113	79
Alejandro Chavez R 2019 · 6.79 FIP	20	SP-	6.79	9.8%	20.4%	3.5%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	109	79
Marbin Montijo R 2016 · 6.37 FIP	20	SW	6.37	7.4%	15.2%	3.6%	.241	5.92	15.6%	-5.3%	51	-0.45	4.37	110	79
Daury Cabrera R 2021 · 5.97 FIP	20	SW	5.97	9.7%	14.3%	3.4%	.290	4.15	15.1%	5.0%	44	-1.82	2.86	191	79
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	64	17.9%	14.2%	1.09	5.35
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58