Miguel Toscano
P
FCL Rays
Age 20
RHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
ROK
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION40 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 158148vR 139
ERA6.20
FIP6.20
K%12.2%
BB%17.2%
K-BB%-5.0%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays | 12 | 10 | 42 | 180 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 83% | 3.5 | 10.6% | 10.4% | 0.2% | 4.4% | 4.97 | 5.96 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Rays | 12 | 10 | 42 | 180 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 83% | 3.5 | 15.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 4.97 | 4.40 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 12 | 11 | 40 | 171 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 92% | 3.3 | 10.7% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% | 3.15 | 3.59 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | 12 | 11 | 40 | 171 | 27 | 10 | 1 | 92% | 3.3 | 15.8% | 5.8% | 9.9% | 0.6% | 3.15 | 2.83 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | 11 | 7 | 40 | 184 | 35 | 28 | 1 | 64% | 3.6 | 12.9% | 19.0% | -6.1% | 1.2% | 3.83 | 5.09 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Rays | 11 | 7 | 40 | 184 | 35 | 28 | 1 | 64% | 3.6 | 19.0% | 15.2% | 3.8% | 0.5% | 3.83 | 3.78 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Rays | 10 | 4 | 40 | 179 | 34 | 12 | 3 | 40% | 4.0 | 12.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 6.25 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TB | 26 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 14 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.2% | 17.2% | -5.0% | 2.9% | 6.20 | 6.20 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TB | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.2% | 17.2% | -5.0% | 2.9% | 6.20 | 6.20 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | TB | — | — | 67 | 292 | 48 | 31 | 6 | — | — | 16.4% | 10.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 6.23 | 5.09 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TB | 5 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 17 | 18 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 14.5% | 15.6% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 5.87 | 5.78 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TB | 2 | 2 | 14 | 59 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 7.0 | 14.5% | 15.6% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 5.87 | 5.78 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 14 | 58 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 6.9 | 14.5% | 15.6% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 5.87 | 5.40 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 116 | 130 | 29 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.5% | 15.6% | -1.0% | 2.8% | 5.87 | 5.40 | +0.0 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 32 | 162 | 714 | 84 | 81 | 16 | 71% | 3.6 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 4.56 | 4.77 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 56 | 40 | 200 | 881 | 104 | 100 | 20 | 71% | 3.6 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 4.56 | 4.77 | +1.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Miguel Toscano (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.20 | 12.2% | 17.2% | 2.9% | — | 5.78 | 14.5% | -1.0% | 28 | -0.42 | — | — | — |
| Denis Diaz R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.51 | 12.7% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.84 | 11.9% | -4.9% | 92 | +0.33 | 3.39 | 129 | 92 |
| Karsen Lindell R 2026 · 7.17 FIP | 20 | SP- | 7.17 | 4.3% | 20.7% | 3.3% | .326 | 6.72 | 9.8% | -9.2% | 54 | -0.45 | 4.94 | 112 | 89 |
| Erick Reynoso R 2026 · 6.52 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.52 | 10.7% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .305 | 6.42 | 14.7% | -7.7% | 135 | -0.10 | 5.76 | 168 | 86 |
| Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.32 | 13.9% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .237 | 4.05 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 73 | -1.27 | 3.79 | 101 | 86 |
| Trey Riley R 2027 · 6.03 FIP | 21 | SP- | 6.03 | 10.6% | 19.0% | 2.6% | .344 | 6.14 | 17.4% | 5.2% | 74 | +0.11 | 4.48 | 227 | 85 |
| Darlin Alcántara R 2026 · 6.12 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.12 | 12.3% | 22.2% | 2.3% | .320 | 4.61 | 12.3% | 2.5% | 31 | -1.51 | 3.61 | 118 | 85 |
| Camilo Sanchez R 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 10.0% | 18.5% | 3.8% | .317 | 5.89 | 14.8% | 0.7% | 62 | -0.76 | 3.66 | 117 | 85 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 85 |
| Adrian Acosta R 2025 · 6.13 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.13 | 7.9% | 21.7% | 1.7% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 120 | 84 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 84 |
| Gillian Wernet R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.46 | 11.2% | 16.6% | 2.2% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 107 | 83 |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2025 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 83 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 11.7% | 21.2% | 3.4% | .298 | 3.50 | 23.5% | 12.6% | 52 | -3.15 | 3.50 | 128 | 82 |
| Ismael Agreda R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.23 | 17.1% | 18.5% | 2.3% | .269 | 4.73 | 21.9% | 5.3% | 145 | -0.50 | 3.35 | 239 | 82 |
| Josh Swales R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.43 | 11.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | .356 | 5.63 | 15.1% | 1.4% | 66 | +0.20 | 5.43 | 129 | 82 |
| Edrick Agosto R 2026 · 6.67 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.67 | 11.4% | 17.1% | 4.3% | .351 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 113 | 82 |
| Luis Mateo R 2028 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 82 |
| Irv Carter R 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 11.4% | 18.9% | 3.9% | .266 | 5.78 | 18.8% | 6.1% | 150 | -0.87 | 4.81 | 236 | 82 |
| Kyle Larsen R 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.00 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 77 | -0.50 | 4.71 | 137 | 82 |
| Kevin Gowdy R 2027 · 5.62 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.62 | 11.1% | 17.0% | 2.4% | .321 | 5.82 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 130 | +0.20 | 3.31 | 333 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 13.4% | 16.3% | 1.10 | 6.03 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |