Benjamin Arias — OGILVIE

Benjamin Arias P Peoria Chiefs

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 195 lbs A+

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%13.6%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%2.0%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	18	0	25	140	22	19	1	0%	1.4	10.7%	17.0%	-6.3%	1.0%	8.39	4.90	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	18	0	25	140	22	19	1	0%	1.4	15.7%	13.6%	2.1%	0.7%	8.39	4.15	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	12	51	207	61	14	2	100%	4.2	20.0%	8.5%	11.6%	1.3%	1.94	3.20	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	12	51	207	61	14	2	100%	4.2	29.5%	6.8%	22.7%	1.0%	1.94	2.04	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	FCL Cardinals	12	11	42	195	40	21	3	92%	3.5	13.9%	13.5%	0.5%	1.9%	3.64	4.68	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	FCL Cardinals	12	11	42	195	40	21	3	92%	3.5	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	1.5%	3.64	3.62	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	13	66	283	59	27	8	87%	4.4	15.5%	11.6%	3.9%	3.5%	4.21	5.19	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	13	66	283	59	27	8	87%	4.4	15.5%	11.6%	3.9%	3.5%	4.21	5.19	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	13	66	283	59	27	8	87%	4.4	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.11	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	66	272	71	17	4	0%	2.3	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	1.8%	4.21	3.39	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	0	66	272	71	17	4	0%	2.3	19.6%	7.3%	12.3%	1.8%	4.21	3.39	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	0	66	272	71	17	4	0%	2.3	26.1%	6.2%	19.9%	1.5%	4.21	2.51	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	33	0	56	243	43	24	3	0%	1.7	13.6%	11.4%	2.3%	1.8%	3.67	4.38	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	33	0	56	243	43	24	3	0%	1.7	13.6%	11.4%	2.3%	1.8%	3.67	4.38	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	33	0	56	243	43	24	3	0%	1.7	17.7%	9.9%	7.8%	1.2%	3.67	3.54	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	STL	5	0	5	21	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.6%	11.6%	2.0%	2.7%	5.30	5.30	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	287	45	32	8	0%	1.0	15.6%	11.1%	4.5%	2.8%	5.13	5.08	-0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	STL	65	0	68	287	48	31	8	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.9%	5.8%	2.8%	5.02	4.98	-0.3
2029	27	MLB MLE	STL	64	0	67	283	48	31	8	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	2.8%	4.98	4.98	-0.3
2030	28	MLB MLE	STL	62	0	65	274	47	30	8	0%	1.0	17.0%	11.0%	6.0%	2.9%	5.01	5.05	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	STL	28	0	29	122	19	14	3	0%	1.0	15.6%	11.1%	4.5%	2.8%	5.13	5.08	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	STL	43	0	45	190	32	21	5	0%	1.0	16.7%	10.9%	5.8%	2.8%	5.02	4.98	-0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	STL	50	0	52	220	37	24	6	0%	1.0	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	2.8%	4.98	4.98	-0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	STL	52	0	55	232	40	26	7	0%	1.1	17.0%	11.0%	6.0%	2.9%	5.01	5.05	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	764	128	84	22	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.0%	5.7%	2.8%	5.02	4.64	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	93	24	0%	1.1	16.7%	11.0%	5.7%	2.8%	5.02	4.64	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		119	36	307	1340	214	148	27	30%	2.6	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	2.0%	3.99	4.26	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	23	200	874	139	96	18	30%	2.6	15.9%	11.0%	4.9%	2.0%	3.99	4.26	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Benjamin Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	13.6%	11.6%	2.7%	—	5.01	16.4%	5.5%	203	-0.29	—	—	—
Raymar Navarro R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	25	SW	4.30	13.1%	11.7%	1.5%	.332	4.29	11.8%	1.0%	41	-0.01	4.29	108	88
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	88
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	88
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	87
Dylan Cumming R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	24	SW	4.11	16.0%	10.7%	1.8%	.311	4.31	18.4%	9.4%	314	+0.20	3.75	406	86
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	85
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	85
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	84
Brad Allen R 2015 · 4.25 FIP	26	SW	4.25	14.0%	12.6%	1.3%	.315	5.82	14.7%	1.5%	87	+1.57	4.25	149	83
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	83
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	83
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	83
James Pugliese R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	24	SW	4.72	12.5%	11.6%	2.2%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	2.52	218	82
Dylan Spacke R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	24	SU	5.24	16.1%	13.9%	3.2%	.297	4.79	13.6%	0.2%	52	-0.45	2.08	205	82
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	82
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	82
Brady Dragmire R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	8.9%	9.4%	2.3%	.304	4.38	11.9%	5.8%	173	-0.40	3.05	391	82
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	81
Fernando Cruz R 2015 · 5.29 FIP	25	SU	5.29	15.6%	12.2%	3.6%	.284	—	—	—	—	—	2.50	371	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	16.0%	11.1%	1.09	5.09
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58