Benjamin Arias — OGILVIE

Benjamin Arias P Peoria Chiefs

+0.0 WAR

Age 24 RHP 6'5" / 195 lbs A+ peak 0.4 · 2027

ERA4.54

FIP4.54

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%20.0%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%10.3%

IP60

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2027

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4045

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2019	17	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	18	0	25	140	22	19	1	10.7%	17.0%	1.0%	8.39	4.90	+0.0
2021	19	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	12	51	207	61	14	2	20.0%	8.5%	1.3%	1.94	3.18	+1.0
2022	20	ROK	FCL Cardinals	12	11	42	195	40	21	3	13.9%	13.5%	1.4%	3.64	4.41	+0.3
2023	21	A+	Peoria Chiefs	15	13	66	283	59	27	8	15.5%	11.6%	3.5%	4.21	5.19	-0.1
2024	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	29	0	66	272	71	17	4	19.6%	7.3%	1.8%	4.21	3.36	+1.2
2025	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	33	0	56	243	43	24	3	13.6%	11.4%	1.9%	3.67	4.41	+0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	MLB	STL	60	—	60	252	44	28	7	17.6%	11.2%	2.8%	4.92	4.92	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	STL	11	11	60	255	47	28	7	18.6%	10.8%	2.8%	4.82	4.80	+0.1
2028	26	MLB	STL	11	11	60	255	49	27	7	19.1%	10.7%	2.8%	4.76	4.74	+0.1
2029	27	MLB	STL	60	—	60	253	49	27	7	19.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.74	4.73	+0.1
2030	28	MLB	STL	59	—	59	250	48	27	7	19.4%	10.6%	2.8%	4.74	4.75	+0.1
2031	29	MLB	STL	58	—	58	244	47	26	7	19.3%	10.7%	2.9%	4.77	4.79	+0.1
2032	30	MLB	STL	56	—	56	237	45	26	7	19.1%	10.8%	2.9%	4.82	4.86	+0.1
2033	31	MLB	STL	54	—	54	228	43	25	7	18.8%	10.9%	3.0%	4.89	4.93	+0.0
2034	32	MLB	STL	52	—	52	219	41	24	7	18.6%	11.1%	3.1%	4.97	5.02	-0.0
2035	33	MLB	STL	50	—	50	209	38	24	7	18.3%	11.2%	3.2%	5.06	5.11	-0.1
2036	34	MLB	STL	47	—	47	199	36	23	7	17.9%	11.5%	3.3%	5.16	5.22	-0.1
2037	35	MLB	STL	44	—	44	187	33	22	6	17.5%	11.7%	3.4%	5.27	5.34	-0.2
2038	36	MLB	STL	42	—	42	175	30	21	6	17.1%	11.9%	3.5%	5.40	5.48	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			119	36	307	1340	214	148	26	15.9%	11.0%	2.0%	3.99	4.22	+3.7
/ 200 IP	—			78	23	200	874	140	97	17	15.9%	11.0%	2.0%	3.99	4.22	+2.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Benjamin Arias (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	17.6%	11.2%	2.8%	—	4.76	19.0%	8.3%	181	-0.16	—	—	—
David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	25	SW	4.42	19.2%	11.9%	2.6%	.279	5.32	15.6%	5.5%	168	+0.90	4.42	239	92
Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP	24	SW	4.16	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	4.19	16.8%	7.5%	66	+0.03	4.16	135	92
Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	91
Matt Lollis R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	24	SW	4.56	18.5%	12.2%	2.7%	.237	5.00	19.2%	4.7%	56	+0.44	4.56	120	91
Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.87 FIP	24	SW	3.87	17.8%	9.8%	1.9%	.309	3.25	24.8%	15.5%	104	-0.62	2.78	312	91
Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.69 FIP	25	SW	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.58	151	91
Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	91
David Trexler R 2026 · 4.58 FIP	24	SW	4.58	17.7%	13.4%	2.3%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.14	4.44	100	91
Dylan Burns R 2027 · 4.07 FIP	25	SW	4.07	17.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.300	4.87	11.6%	-2.4%	41	+0.80	4.07	120	90
Matt Marsh R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	24	SW	4.15	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.68	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.47	3.13	143	90
Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.84 FIP	23	SW	3.84	17.5%	9.8%	1.8%	.305	5.79	9.8%	-0.2%	118	+1.95	3.84	190	89
Ryan Ledbetter R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	24	SW	4.75	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.75	124	89
Stolmy Pimentel R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	25	SW	4.53	16.0%	10.5%	2.6%	.338	3.89	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.64	3.89	143	89
Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP	24	SW	3.86	20.6%	10.4%	2.2%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.03	3.40	134	89
Scott Oberg R 2027 · 5.16 FIP	25	SW	5.16	17.0%	11.2%	3.8%	.273	2.95	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.21	2.59	302	89
Matthew Gorst R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	24	SW	4.65	16.2%	11.3%	2.7%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	199	88
Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.75 FIP	24	SW	4.75	17.1%	8.9%	3.6%	.335	3.98	18.1%	8.5%	129	-0.77	3.43	183	88
David Goforth R 2028 · 4.06 FIP	26	SW	4.06	17.4%	9.8%	2.2%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.52	4.06	256	88
Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	18.9%	9.0%	2.5%	.311	4.41	17.3%	3.8%	141	+0.42	3.65	255	88
Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP	24	SW	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.16	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.20	3.96	148	88

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.